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The pattern of climate change around the Windward Passage

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Abstract

Climatic trends in observed and reanalysis data 1980–2014 are mapped to describe spatial structure in the central Caribbean and for guidance on future conditions. Surface air temperatures averaged over the study area 16–22°N, 80–68°W exhibit trends of + .02°C/year, that relate to radiative forcing by greenhouse gases and changes in atmospheric subsidence. Rainfall trends for the Antilles Islands are weakly upward around the Windward Passage 18–20.5°N, 78–73°W and downward to the east 18–20°N, 72–68°W. Spatial trends in air temperatures exhibit a steeper increase over the islands and away from the Windward Passage. Trends in satellite vegetation fraction are upward along the coast and coincide with rising latent heat flux especially west of Hispaniola. An accelerating Hadley circulation exhibits subsidence, warming and drying above 850 hPa. Near the surface, there is a trend of northeasterly winds channeled through the Windward Passage and increased moisture benefiting shallow convection. The research uncovers mesoscale structure in climate change through interaction of wind and rainfall trends.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, PR, USA

    Mark R. Jury

  2. University of Zululand, KwaDlangezwa, South Africa

    Mark R. Jury

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Correspondence to Mark R. Jury.

Appendix. Temporal projections

Appendix. Temporal projections

Climate projections from the CMIP5 MRI model using the mid-range rcp6.0 W/m2 scenario (Yukimoto et al. 2006. Taylor et al. 2012a, b, Perez and Jury 2013) were evaluated over the period 1980–2050 and placed in context using NCDC temperature (Smith et al. 2008), GPCP rainfall (Adler et al. 2003), and NASA vegetation fraction. Annual area averages (16–22° N, 80–68° W) were calculated, and the linear slope and r2 fit were determined. Observed and projected temperature trends (Fig. 5a) were consistent: .0134 °C/year versus .0145 °C/year, r2 fit increased from 0.39 to 0.80. Rainfall showed no trend (Fig. 5b) and multi-year variability continued, in contrast to findings of Jones et al. (2015) that indicate variability overtaken by drying. The land vegetation fraction and projected area-average latent heat flux had upward trends (Fig. 5c): + .0019/year, r2 = 0.63 versus LHF + .0027 mm/day/year, r2 = 0.88; evaporation is accelerating. The annual cycle of rainfall for all vs land areas around the Windward Passaage (Fig. 5d) has bi-modal character with land > sea. There is a drying trend over the islands ~ 1 mm/day in Jun–Aug months, possibly related to divergent winds east of the Windward Passage (cf Fig. 3a). Other CMIP outputs are reviewed in Ryu and Hayhoe (2013).

Fig. 5
figure 5

Time series of CMIP5 MRI projected and observed: a air temperature anomalies, b rainfall anomalies, and c vegetation fraction and latent heat flux. Linear trend and fit are given; all averaged over the Windward Passage area. d Projected “all” and “land” annual cycle of rainfall 1980–2010 (past) and 2020–2050 (future)

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Jury, M.R. The pattern of climate change around the Windward Passage. Theor Appl Climatol 137, 1149–1157 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2658-3

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