Abstract
This study applied a number of statistical techniques aimed at quantifying the magnitude of projected mean rainfall and number of rainy days over Rwanda on monthly, seasonal, and annual timescales for the period 2015–2050. The datasets for this period were generated by BCM2.0 for the SRES emission scenario SRB1, CO2 concentration for the baseline scenario (2011–2030) using the stochastic weather generator (LARS-WG). It was observed that on average, there will be a steady decline in mean rainfall. Save for the short rainy season, a positive trend in mean rainfall is expected over the south-west, the north-east region, and the northern highlands. The other regions (central, south-east, and western regions) are likely to experience a decline in mean rainfall. The number of rainy days is expected to decrease in the central plateau and the south-eastern lowlands, while the south-west, the north-west, and north-east regions are expected to have a pattern of increased number of rainy days. This decline in mean rainfall and rainy days over a large part of Rwanda is an indicator of just how much the country is bound to experience reduced water supply for various uses (e.g., agriculture, domestic activities, and industrial activities).
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Agustin G (2006) Climate change and variability in the mixed crop/livestock production systems of the Argentinean, Brazilian and Uruguayan pampas. The International START Secretariat, NW Washington
Anyah RO, Semazzi FHM (2007) Variability of East African rainfall based on multiyear RegCM3 simulations. Int J Climatol 27:357–371
Clark CO, Webster PJ, Cole JE (2003) Interdecadal variability of the relationship between the Indian Ocean zonal mode and East African coastal rainfall anomalies. J Clim 16:548–554
Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuioc A, Chen A, Gao X, Held I, Jones R, Koli RK, Kwon W-T, Laprise R, Rueda VM, Mearns L, Menéndez CG, Räisänen J, Rinke A, Sarr A, Whetton P (2007) In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Regional climate projections. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 847–940
Dai A, Lamb PJ, Trenberth KE, Hulme M, Jones PD, Xie P (2004) The recent Sahel drought is real. Int J Climatol 24:1323–1331
Del Río S, Cano-Ortiz A, Herrero L, Penas A (2012) Recent trends in mean maximum and minimum air temperatures over Spain (1961–2006). Theor Appl Climatol 109:605–625
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (2008) Climate change and food security: a framework document. FAO, Rome
Funk CC, Brown ME (2006) Intra-seasonal NDVI change projections in semi-arid Africa. Remote Sens Environ 101:249–256
Hudson DA, Jones RG (2002) Regional climate model simulations of present day and future climates of southern Africa. Technical Note 39, Hadley Cen- tre, Bracknell 42 pp
Hulme M (2001) Climatic perspectives on Sahelian desiccation: 1973-1998. Glob Environ Chang 11:19–29
Hulme M, Doherty R, Ngara T, New M (2005) Global warming and African climate change. Cambridge University Press, UK
Ilunga L, Mbaragijimana C, Muhire I (2004) Pluviometric seasons and rainfall origin in Rwanda. Geo-Eco-Trop 28(1–2):61–68
Ilunga L, Mugiraneza A, Mukingambeho D, Maguru M, Uwimana J, Muhire I (2008) Probable sowing period in Rwanda. Geo-Eco-Trop 32(1–2):29–36
IPCC (2000) Special report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. In: Nakicenovic N, Swart R (eds) Emissions scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II, III to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Jain SJ, Kumar V (2012) Trends analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India. Curr Sci 102(1):37–49
Kizza M, Rodhe A, Xu CY, Ntale HK, Halldin S (2009) Temporal rainfall variability in the Lake Victoria basin in East Africa during the twentieth century. Theor Appl Climatol 98:119–135
Ministry of Natural Resources (MINERENA) (2010). Second national communication under United Nations Framework Conventions on climate change (UNFCCC). Kigali, Rwanda
Muhire I, Ahmed F (2015) Spatio-temporal trend analysis of precipitation data over Rwanda. S Afr Geogr J 97(1):50–68
Muhire I, Ahmed F, Abutaleb K, Kabera G (2015) Impacts of projected changes and variability in climatic data on major food crops yields in Rwanda. International Journal of Plant Production 9(3):347–372
Mutai CC, Ward MN, Colman AW (1998) Towards the prediction of the East Africa short rains based on sea-surface temperature and atmosphere coupling. Int J Climatol 18(9):975–997
Mutai CC, Ward MN (2000) East African rainfall and the tropical circulation/convection on intraseasonal to interannual timescales. J Clim 13:3915–3939
NISR (National Institute of statistics of Rwanda) 2011. Statistical year book, 2011 Edition, Kigali, Rwanda
National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR), (2012). Statistical year book, 2012 edition. Kigali, Rwanda
Parry ML, Rosenzweig C, Iglesias A, Livermore M, Fischer G (2004) Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Glob Environ Chang 14(1):53–67
Racsko P, Szeidl L, Semenov M (1991) A serial approach to local stochastic weather models. Ecol Model 57(1–2):27–41
Rodrigo FS, Trigo RM (2007) Trends in daily rainfall in the Iberian Peninsula from 1951 to 2002. Int J Climatol 27:513–529
Ruosteenoja K, Carter TR, Jylhä K, Tuomenvirt H (2003) Future climate in world regions: an intercomparison of model-based projections for the new IPCC emissions scenarios. Finnish Environment Institute No. 644, Helsinki 83 pp
Schreck CJ, Semazzi FHM (2004) Variability of the recent climate of eastern Africa. Int J Climatol 24:681–701
Semenov MA, Barrow EM (1997) Use of a stochastic weather generator in the development of climate change scenarios. Climate Change 35:397–414
Semenov MA, Brooks RJ (1999) Spatial interpolation of the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator in great Britain. Clim Res 11:137–148
Semenov MA, Stratonovitch P (2010) Use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models for assessment of climate change impacts. Clim Res 41:1–14. doi:10.3354/cr00836
Sirven P, Gotanegre JF Prioul C (1974). Géographie du Rwanda, A. De Boeck-Bruxelles
Song Y, Achberger C, Linderholm H (2011) Rain-season trends in precipitation and their effect in different climate regions of China during 1961-2008. Environ Res Lett. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034025
Tonkaz T, Çetin M, Tülücü K (2007) The impact of water resources development projects on water vapor pressure trends in a semi-arid region, Turkey. Clim Chang 82:195–209
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Muhire, I., Tesfamichael, S., Ahmed, F. et al. Spatio-temporal trend analysis of projected precipitation data over Rwanda. Theor Appl Climatol 131, 671–680 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-2002-8
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-2002-8