Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Changes in precipitation regime in the Baltic countries in 1966–2015

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The aim of the study was to analyse trends and regime shifts in time series of monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation in the eastern Baltic countries (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) during 1966–2015. Data from 54 stations with nearly homogeneous series were used. The Mann-Kendall test was used for trend analysis and the Rodionov test for the analysis of regime shifts. Rather few statistically significant trends (p < 0.05) and regime shifts were determined. The highest increase (by approximately 10 mm per decade) was observed in winter precipitation when a significant trend was found at the large majority of stations. For monthly precipitation, increasing trends were detected at many stations in January, February and June. Weak negative trends revealed at few stations in April and September. Annual precipitation has generally increased, but the trend is mostly insignificant. The analysis of regime shifts revealed some significant abrupt changes, the most important of which were upward shifts in winter, in January and February precipitation at many stations since 1990 or in some other years (1989, 1995). A return shift in the time series of February precipitation occurred since 2003. The most significant increase in precipitation was determined in Latvia and the weakest increase in Lithuania.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Alber R, Jaagus J, Oja P (2015) Diurnal cycle of precipitation in Estonia. Estonian Journal of Earth Sciences 64:305–313

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Apsīte E, Rudlapa I, Latkovska I, Elferts D (2013) Changes in Latvian river discharges regime at the turn of the century. Hydrol Res 44:554–569

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Avotniece Z, Rodinovs V, Lizuma L, Briede A, Kļaviņš M (2010) Trends in the frequency of extreme climate events in Latvia. Baltica 23(2):135–148

    Google Scholar 

  • BACC Author Team (2008) Assessment of climate change for the Baltic Sea basin. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 473 pp

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • BACC Author Team (2015) Second assessment of climate change for the Baltic Sea basin. Springer, Cham, Heidelberg, New York, Dordrecht, London, 501 pp

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Barnston AG, Livezey RE (1987) Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns. Mon Wea Rev 115:1083–1126

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bartkevičienė G (2005) Spatial peculiarities of the NAO impact on air temperature and precipitation field in 1950–2000. Acta Zoologica Lituanica 15(1):39–46

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beck C, Grieser J, Rudolf B (2005) A new monthly climatology for the global land areas for the period 1951 to 2000. Climate status report 2004. German Weather Service, Offenbach, p 181–190

  • Biggs R, Carpenter SR, Brock WA (2009) Turning back from the brink: detecting an impending regime shift in time to avert it. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 106:826–831

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bogdanova EG, Mescherskaya AV (1998) Influence of moistening losses on the homogeneity of annual precipitation time series. Russian Meteorol Hydrol 11:88–99

    Google Scholar 

  • Bogdanova EG, Gavrilova SY, Il’in BM (2010) Time changes of atmospheric precipitation in Russia from the corrected data during 1936–2000. Russian Meteorol Hydrol 35:706–714

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Briede A, Lizuma L (2007) Long-term variability of precipitation in the territory of Latvia. In: Kļaviņš M (ed) Climate change in Latvia, pp. 35–44

    Google Scholar 

  • Bukantis A, Rimkus E (2005) Climate variability and change in Lithuania. Acta Zoologica Lituanica 15:100–104

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Casty C, Handorf D, Raible CC, González-Rouco JF, Weisheimer A, Xoplaki E, Luterbacher J, Dethloff K, Wanner H (2005) Recurrent climate winter regimes in reconstructed and modelled 500 hPa geopotential height fields over the NorthAtlantic/European sector 1659-1990. Clim Dyn 24:809–822

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chang EKM, Yau AMW (2015) Northern Hemisphere winter storm track trends since 1959 derived from multiple reanalysis datasets. Clim Dyn 40. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2911-8

  • Degirmendžić J, Kożuchowski K, Żmudzka E (2004) Changes of air temperature and precipitation in Poland in the period 1951-2000 and their relationship to atmospheric circulation. Int J Climatol 24:291–310

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Elken J, Raudsepp U, Laanemets J, Passenko J, Maljutenko I, Pärn O, Keevallik S (2014) Increased frequency of wintertime stratification collapse events in the Gulf of Finland since the 1990s. J Mar Syst 129:47–55

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Georgievsky VY, Ezhov AV, Shalygin AL, Shiklomanov IA, Shiklomanov AI (1996) Assessment of possible climate changes on hydrological regime and water resources of rivers in the former USSR. Russian Meteorol Hydrol 11:66–74

    Google Scholar 

  • Groisman PY, Rankova EY (2001) Precipitation trends over the Russian permafrost-free zone: removing the artifacts of pre-processing. Int J Climatol 21:657–678

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Groisman PY, Koknaeva VV, Belokrylova TA, Karl TR (1991) Overcoming biases of precipitation measurement: a history of the USSR experience. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc 72:1725–1733

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hanssen-Bauer I, Førland EJ (2000) Temperature and precipitation variations in Norway 1900–1994 and their liks to atmospheric circulation. Int J Climatol 20:1693–1708

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hare SR, Mantua NJ (2000) Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989. Prog Oceanogr 47:103–145

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Heino R (1994) Climate in Finland during the period of meteorological observations. Finnish meteorological Institute Contributions 12:1–209

    Google Scholar 

  • Hurrell JW (1995) Decadal trends in the North Atlantic oscillation: regional temperature and precipitation. Science 269:676–679

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2001) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. In: Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds) Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 881 pp

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-P, Tignor MMB, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 1535 pp

    Google Scholar 

  • Jaagus J (2006) Climatic changes in Estonia during the second half of the 20th century in relationship with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation. Theor Appl Climatol 83:77–88

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jaagus J, Mändla K (2014) Climate change scenarios for Estonia based on climate models from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Estonian J Earth Sci 63:166–180

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jaagus J, Briede A, Rimkus E, Remm K (2010) Precipitation pattern in the Baltic countries under the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation and local landscape factors. Int J Climatol 30:705–720

    Google Scholar 

  • Jones PD, Jónsson T, Wheeler D (1997) Extension to the North Atlantic Oscillation using early instrumental pressure observation frim Gibraltar and South-West Iceland. Int J Climatol 17:1433–1450

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keevallik S (2011) Shifts in meteorological regime of the late winter and early spring in Estonia during recent decades. Theor Appl Climatol 105:209–215

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keevallik S, Soomere T (2008) Shifts in early spring wind regime in North-East Europe (1955–2007). Clim Past 4:147–152

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keevallik S, Soomere T (2014) Regime shifts in the surface-level average air flow over the Gulf of Finland during 1981–2010. Proceedings of the Estonian Academy of Sciences 63:428–437

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kilpeläinen T, Tuomenvirta H, Jylhä K (2008) Climatological characteristics of summer precipitation in Helsinki during the period 1951–2000. Boreal Environ Res 13:67–80

    Google Scholar 

  • Kjellström E, Nikulin G, Hansson U, Strandberg G, Ullerstig A (2011) 21st century changes in the European climate: uncertainties derived from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations. Tellus A 63:24–40

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Klavins M, Rodinov V (2010) Influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on climate in Latvia. Boreal Env Res 15:533–543

    Google Scholar 

  • Kożuchowski K, Marciniak K (1988) Variability of mean monthly temperatures and semi-annual precipitation totals in Europe in relation to hemispheric circulation patterns. J Climatol 8:191–199

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kożuchowski K, Żmudzka E (2003) 100-year series of areally averaged temperatures and precipitation totals in Poland. Studia geograficzne 75. Acta Universitatis Wratislaviensis 2542:116–122

    Google Scholar 

  • Kriaučiuniene J, Meilutyte-Barauskiene D, Reihan A, Koltsova T, Lizuma L, Sarauskiene D (2012) Variability in temperature, precipitation and river discharge in the Baltic States. Boreal Env Res 17:150–162

    Google Scholar 

  • Lehmann A, Getzlaff K, Harlaß J (2011) Detailed assessment of climate variability in the Baltic Sea area for the period 1958 to 2009. Clim Res 46:185–196

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • New M, Todd M, Hulme M, Jones P (2001) Precipitation measurements and trends in the twentieth century. Int J Climatol 21:1899–1922

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Niedźwiedź T, Twardosz R (2004) Long-term variability of precipitation at selected stations in Central Europe. Papers on Global ChangeIGBP 11:73–100

    Google Scholar 

  • Overland JE, Rodionov S, Minobe S, Bond N (2008) North Pacific regime shifts: definitions, issue and recent transitions. Prog Oceanogr 77:92–102

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rimkus E, Kažys J, Bukantis A, Krotovas A (2011) Temporal variation of extreme precipitation events in Lithuania. Oceanologia 53:259–277

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodionov SN (2004) A sequential algorithm for testing climate regime shifts. Geophys Res Lett 31:L09204. doi:10.1029/2004GL019448

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodionov SN, Overland JE (2005) Application of a sequential regime shift detection method to the Bering Sea ecosystem. ICES J Mar Sci 62:328–332

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schönwiese CD, Rapp J (1997) Climate trend atlas of Europe based on observations 1891–1990. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 225 pp

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Sepp M, Post P, Jaagus J (2005) Long-term changes in the frequency of cyclones and their trajectories in Central and Northern Europe. Nord Hydrol 36:297–309

    Google Scholar 

  • Tuomenvirta H (2004) Reliable estimation of climatic variations in Finland. Finnish Meteorological Institute Contribution No 43

  • Wang XL, Swail VR, Zwiers FW (2006) Climatology and changes of extratropical cyclone activity: comparison of ERA-40 with NCEP–NCAR reanalysis for 1958–2001. J Clim 19:3145–3166

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wibig J (1999) Precipitation in Europe in relation to circulation patterns at the 500 hPa level. Int J Climatol 19:253–269

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yasunaka S, Hanawa K (2002) Regime shifts found in the Northern Hemisphere SST field. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 80:119–135

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ylhäisi JS, Tietäväinen H, Peltonen-Sainio P, Venäläinen A, Eklund J, Räisänen J, Jylhä K (2010) Growing season precipitation in Finland under recent and projected climate. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 10:1563–1574

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This study was realised using the financial support of the Ministry of Education and Research of the Republic of Estonia (the institutional research grant IUT 2-16). We are grateful to the Latvian Council of Science (grant no. 526/2016) for supporting this research. This work was also done within the ESSEM COST Action ES1206.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences, University of Tartu, Vanemuise 46, 51014, Tartu, Estonia

    Jaak Jaagus & Mait Sepp

  2. Department of Geography, University of Latvia, Jelgavas St. 1, Riga, LV-1004, Latvia

    Agrita Briede

  3. Department of Hydrology and Climatology, Vilnius University, 21/27 Čiurlionio St, 03101, Vilnius, Lithuania

    Egidijus Rimkus

Authors
  1. Jaak Jaagus
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Agrita Briede
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Egidijus Rimkus
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Mait Sepp
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jaak Jaagus.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Jaagus, J., Briede, A., Rimkus, E. et al. Changes in precipitation regime in the Baltic countries in 1966–2015. Theor Appl Climatol 131, 433–443 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1990-8

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1990-8

Search

Navigation