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Impacts of the superimposed climate trends on droughts over 1961–2013 in Xinjiang, China

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Abstract

This study reveals the impacts of climatic variable trends on drought severity in Xinjiang, China. Four drought indices, including the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (sc-PDSI), Erinç’s index (I m), Sahin’s index (I sh), and UNEP aridity index (AI), were used to compare drought severity. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition and the modified Mann-Kendall trend test were applied to analyze the nonlinear components and trends of the climatic variable and drought indices. Four and six climatic scenarios were generated in sc-PDSI, I m, I sh, and AI with different combinations of the observed and detrended climatic variables, respectively. In Xinjiang, generally increasing trends in minimal, average, and maximal air temperature (T min, T ave, T max) and precipitation (P) were found, whereas a decreasing trend in wind speed at 2 m height (U 2) was observed. There were significantly increasing trends in all of the four studied drought indices. Drought relief was more obvious in northern Xinjiang than in southern Xinjiang. The strong influences of increased P on drought relief and the weak influences of increased T min, T ave, and T max on drought aggravation were shown by comparing four drought indices under different climate scenarios. Decreased U 2 had a weak influence on drought, as shown by the AI in different climate scenarios. The weak influences of T and U 2 were considered to be masked by the strong influences of P on droughts. Droughts were expected to be more severe if P did not increase, but were likely milder without an increase in air temperature and with a decrease in U 2.

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Acknowledgments

This study is jointly supported by the Xinjiang Joint Project of China National Science Foundation (U1203182), China Scholarship Council for Studying Abroad (201506305014), and China 111 project (B12007). We also thank the Meteorological Data Sharing Service Network in China for supplying weather data. Dr. Zilefac E Asong helped in the revision processes. We thank the anonymous reviewers who gave us very constructive suggestions for improving the paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Water Resources and Architecture Engineering, Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University, Yangling, Shaanxi, 712100, China

    Yi Li

  2. School of Human Settlements and Civil Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, 710049, China

    Changfeng Sun

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  1. Yi Li
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  2. Changfeng Sun
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Correspondence to Yi Li or Changfeng Sun.

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Li, Y., Sun, C. Impacts of the superimposed climate trends on droughts over 1961–2013 in Xinjiang, China. Theor Appl Climatol 129, 977–994 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1822-x

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