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Subseasonal to multidecadal variability of northeast monsoon daily rainfall over Peninsular Malaysia using a hidden Markov model

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Abstract

This study involves the modelling of a homogeneous hidden Markov model (HMM) on the northeast rainfall monsoon using 40 rainfall stations in Peninsular Malaysia for the period of 1975 to 2008. A six hidden states HMM was selected based on Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and every hidden state has distinct rainfall characteristics. Three of the states were found to correspond by wet conditions; while the remaining three states were found to correspond to dry conditions. The six hidden states were found to correspond with the associated atmospheric composites. The relationships between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific Ocean are found regarding interannual variability. The wet (dry) states were found to be well correlated with a Niño 3.4 index which was used to characterize the intensity of an ENSO event. This model is able to assess the behaviour of the rainfall characteristics with the large scale atmospheric circulation; the monsoon rainfall is well correlated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in Peninsular Malaysia.

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Acknowledgements

The authors wish to acknowledge the Ministry of Higher Education of Malaysia for the MyPhD Scholarship and TRGS (Project 2) vot 4L836. This research was also supported by Research University Grant (GUP) 04J23 from the Universiti Teknologi Malaysia.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Skudai, Johor, Malaysia

    Wei Lun Tan & Fadhilah Yusof

  2. Centre for Environmental Sustainability and Water Security (IPASA), Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Skudai, Johor, Malaysia

    Zulkifli Yusop

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  1. Wei Lun Tan
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  2. Fadhilah Yusof
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  3. Zulkifli Yusop
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Correspondence to Wei Lun Tan.

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Tan, W.L., Yusof, F. & Yusop, Z. Subseasonal to multidecadal variability of northeast monsoon daily rainfall over Peninsular Malaysia using a hidden Markov model. Theor Appl Climatol 129, 577–586 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1795-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1795-9

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