Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Determination of summer monsoon onset and its related large-scale circulation characteristics over Pakistan

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The onset of summer monsoon over the Core Monsoon Region of Pakistan (CMRP) has been investigated in this study using observational daily rainfall and Precipitable Water (PW) data sets. An objective criterion is proposed to define monsoon onset dates by employing Precipitation Index and Normalized Precipitable Water Index techniques. The climatological mean summer monsoon onset dates over CMRP based on daily rainfall data sets are observed to be 1 July and 30 June in the station and gridded data sets, respectively. Whereas the daily PW-based climatological mean onset date is 30 June. The year-wise onset dates determined through station and gridded rainfall data sets are very similar but these dates differ in case of PW-based onsets. The evolution of large-scale circulation anomalies and thermodynamic structure leading monsoon onset over Pakistan shows that a strong positive temperature and geopotential height anomalies appear over the northwestern part of the core region in the upper atmosphere. This warm geopotential height anomaly gets strengthen as the monsoon onset approaches. The temperature anomalies are barotropic whereas the geopotential height anomalies are baroclinic with the presence of low level anticyclone over the Tibetan Plateau. A moisture convergence zone along the foothill of Himalayas and low level moisture convergence zone over the north Arabian Sea set the stage for the moisture carrying monsoon winds to blow inland towards CMRP. The moisture is mainly supplied from the Arabian Sea, as the low pressure system approaches CMRP from the Bay of Bengal.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Ananthakrishnan R, Soman MK (1988) The onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala: 1901–1980. J Climatol 8(3):283–296. doi:10.1002/joc.3370080305

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chakraborty A, Nanjundiah RS, Srinivasan J (2006) Theoretical aspects of the onset of Indian summer monsoon from perturbed orography simulations in a GCM. Ann Geophys 24:2075–2089

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chaudhry QZ (1992) Analysis and seasonal prediction of Pakistan Summer Monsoon Rainfall. Ph.D. Thesis, Univ. of Philippines, Quezon City, Philippines

  • Ding Y, Sikka DR (2006) Synoptic systems and weather. In: Wang B (ed) The Asian monsoon. Springer, Berlin, pp 131–201

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Ding Q, Wang B (2005) Circumglobal Teleconnection in the Northern Hemisphere Summer*. J Clim 18(17):3483–3505. doi:10.1175/JCLI3473.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ding Q, Wang B (2007) Intraseasonal teleconnection between the summer Eurasian wave train and the Indian monsoon. J Clim 20:3751–3767. doi:10.1175/JCLI4221.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Faisal N, Sadiq N (2012) Monsoon onset over selected eastern boundary cities of Pakistan. Nucleus 49(3):239–245

    Google Scholar 

  • Fasullo J, Webster PJ (2003) A hydrological definition of Indian monsoon onset and withdrawal. J Clim 16(19):3200–3211. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3200a:AHDOIM>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Find later J (1969) A major low-level air current near the Indian Ocean during the northern summer. Q J R Meteorol Soc 95(404):362–380. doi:10.1002/qj.49709540409

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Flohn H (1981) The elevated heat source of the Tibetan highlands and its role for the large scale atmospheric circulation. Geol Ecol Stud Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. 2: 1463–1469. Online available at http://www2.meteo.uni-bonn.de/bibliothek/Flohn_Publikationen/K287-K320_1981-1985/K297.pdf Accessed 9 Aug 2014

  • Goswami BN, Xavier PK (2005) ENSO control on the South Asian Monsoon through the length of the rainy season. Geophys Res Lett 32(18):L18717. doi:10.1029/2005GL023216

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Higgins RW, Yao Y, Wang L (1997) Influence of the North American monsoon system on the U.S. summer precipitation regime. J Clim 10(10):2600–2622. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<2600:IOTNAM>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hsu HH, Terng CT, Chen CT (1999) Evolution of large-scale circulation and heating during the first transition of Asian summer monsoon. J Clim 12(3):793–810. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<0793:EOLSCA>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Imran A, Zaman Q, Rasul G, Mahmood A (2014) An analytical study of variations in the monsoon patterns over Pakistan. Pak J Meteorol 10(20):25–37

    Google Scholar 

  • Normand CWB (1943) Climatological Atlas of Airmen. India Meteorological Department, India

    Google Scholar 

  • IUCN (2009) Proceeding, workshop on ‘Stabilizing Climate Change in the Himalayas’ held on 04 August 2009, Nepal

  • Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77(3):437–471

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim HM, Webster PJ, Curry JA, Toma VE (2012) Asian summer monsoon prediction in ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective seasonal forecasts. Clim Dyn 39(12):2975–2991. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1470-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koteswaram P (1958) The easterly jet stream in the tropics. Tellus 10(1):43–57. doi:10.1111/j.2153-3490.1958.tb01984.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koteswaram P (1960) The Asian summer monsoon and the general circulation over the tropics. Monsoons of the world. 105–110

  • Krishna Kumar K, Kumar RK, Ashrit RG, Deshpande NR, Hansen JW (2004) Climate impacts on Indian agriculture. Int J Climatol 24(11):1375–1393. doi:10.1002/joc.1081

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liebmann B, Smith CA (1996) Description of a complete (interpolated) OLR dataset. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:1275–1277

    Google Scholar 

  • Mahmood A, Faisal N, Jameel A (2012) Special Report on Pakistan’s Monsoon 2011 Rainfall. PMD Technical Report No. 05/2012, January 2012

  • Moron V, Robertson AW (2013) Interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall onset date at local scale. Int J Climatol 34(4):1050–1061. doi:10.1002/joc.3745

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Murakami T, Ding YH (1982) Wind and temperature changes over Eurasia during the early summer of 1979. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 60:183–196

    Google Scholar 

  • Pai DS, Nair RM (2009) Summer monsoon onset over Kerala: new definition and prediction. J Earth Syst Sci 118(2):123–135. doi:10.1007/s12040-009-0020-y

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pant GB, Kumar KR (1997) Climates of South-Asia. Wiley, England

    Google Scholar 

  • Puranik SS, Ray KS, Sen PN, Kumar PP (2013) An index for predicting the onset of monsoon over Kerala. Curr Sci 105(7):954–961

    Google Scholar 

  • Raju PVS, Mohanty UC, Bhatla R (2005) Onset characteristics of the southwest monsoon over India. Int J Climatol 25(2):167–182. doi:10.1002/joc.1121

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ramage CS (1971) Monsoon meteorology. Academic Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Rao GV, Aksakal A (1994) Characteristics of convection over the Arabian Sea during a period of monsoon onset. Atmos Res 33(1):235–258

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sadiq N, Qureshi MS (2010) Climatic variability and linear trend models for the five major cites of Pakistan. J Geogr Geol 2(1):83–92

    Google Scholar 

  • Simon B, Rahman SH, Joshi PC (2006) Conditions leading to the onset of the Indian monsoon: a satellite perspective. Meteorol Atmos Phys 93(3–4):201–210. doi:10.1007/s00703-005-0155-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Soman MK, Krishnakumar K (1990) Some aspects of daily rainfall distribution over India during the south-west monsoon season. Int J Climatol 10(3):299–311. doi:10.1002/joc.3370100307

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Soman MK, Krishnakumar K (1993) Space-time evolution of meteorological features associated with the onset of Indian summer monsoon. Mon Weather Rev 121(4):1177–1194

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Syed FS, Yoo JH, Kornich H, Kucharski F (2010) Are intraseasonal summer rainfall events micro monsoon onsets over the western edge of the South-Asian monsoon? Atmos Res 98(2):341–346. doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.07.006

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Syed FS, Yoo JH, Körnich H, Kucharski F (2011) Extratropical influences on the inter-annual variability of South-Asian monsoon. Clim Dyn 38(7–8):1661–1674. doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1059-4

    Google Scholar 

  • Taniguchi K, Koike T (2006) Comparison of definitions of Indian summer monsoon onset: better representation of rapid transitions of atmospheric conditions. Geophys Res Lett 33(2):L02709. doi:10.1029/2005GL024526

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Turner AG, Annamalai H (2012) Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon. Nat Clim Chang 2(8):587–595. doi:10.1038/nclimate1495

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ullah K, Shouting G (2012) Moisture transport over the Arabian Sea associated with summer rainfall over Pakistan in 1994 and 2002. Adv Atmos Sci 29(3):501–508. doi:10.1007/s00376-011-0200-y

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vonder H, Thomas H, Bytheway JL, Forsythe JM (2012) Weather and climate analyses using improved global water vapor observations. Geophys Res Lett 39(15):L15802. doi:10.1029/2012GL052094

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Ding Q, Joseph PV (2009) Objective definition of the Indian Summer Monsoon Onset*. J Clim 22(12):3303–3316. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2675.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yatagai A, Kamiguchi K, Arakawa O, Hamada A, Yasutomi N, Kitoh A (2012) APHRODITE: constructing a long-term daily gridded precipitation dataset for Asia based on a dense network of rain gauges. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93(9):1401–1415

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zeng X, Lu E (2004) Globally unified monsoon onset and retreat indexes. J Clim 17(11):2241–2248. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2241:GUMOAR>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zeng X (1999) The relationship between precipitation, cloud-top temperature, and precipitable water over the tropics. J Clim 12(8):2503–2514. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2503:TRAPCT>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors are thankful to Prof. Xubin Zeng from University of Arizona for providing valuable information during this study. The PW data was obtained from NASA Langley research center archived at Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC). The authors acknowledge and thank NOAA for providing integrated OLR daily data and NCEP-NCAR for temperature, geopotential height, winds, and specific humidity daily data sets. We also acknowledge PMD, Islamabad, for providing daily station rainfall data.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Meteorology, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, 44000, Islamabad, Pakistan

    M. Latif & F. S. Syed

Authors
  1. M. Latif
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. F. S. Syed
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to M. Latif.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Latif, M., Syed, F.S. Determination of summer monsoon onset and its related large-scale circulation characteristics over Pakistan. Theor Appl Climatol 125, 509–520 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1530-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1530-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation