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Trends and projections of temperature, precipitation, and snow cover during snow cover-observed period over southwestern Iran

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Abstract

In the present study, tendencies in temperature, precipitation, and snow cover area over the southwestern part of Iran have been assessed. The research mainly focused on snow cover-observed period which included the months of December, January, February, March, and April in the area. This research has been divided into two parts. First part consists of an analysis of the trends in temperature, precipitation, and snow cover area during the above months. Trends in these parameters were tested by linear regression, and significance was determined by t test. Mann-Kendall rank test (MK test) was also employed to confirm the results of linear regression. Sequential Mann-Kendall test (SQ-MK test) was applied for change point detection in the series. For snow cover analysis, remote sensing images from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellite with advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) sensor for the period 1987–2007 were used. The second part of the research involved future projections based on four models under B1 and A1B emission scenarios. The models used were centre national de recherches meteorologiques (CNRM), European Center Hamburg model (ECHAM), Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROCH) and United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMOC) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR4. The analysis of temperature trends revealed a significant increase during February and April. Temperature projections showed that temperature may increase between 1.12 to 7.87 °C by 2100 in the study area. The results of precipitation series indicated that majority of the stations registered insignificant trends during the twentieth century. However, precipitation may decrease according to most of the models under both scenarios, but the decrease may not be large, except according to MIROCH model. The results of trend analysis of snow cover area indicated that no significant trends were detected by any statistical tests at 95 % confidence level during the twentieth century. Snow cover projection showed that snow cover area may decrease as indicated by all the models under both scenarios at the end of twenty-first century consistent with the projected increase in temperature.

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Acknowledgments

The authors are thankful to the Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) and Water Resources Management Organization of the Ministry of Energy, Islamic Republic of Iran, for providing observed data. We also acknowledge the modeling groups for providing their data for analysis, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, USA, for collecting and archiving the model output, for providing necessary data required for the study. We also wish to express our gratitude to the anonymous reviewers whose suggestions and remarks have greatly helped us to improve the quality of the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, Islamshahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

    Mohammad Zarenistanak

  2. Department of Geography, Savitribai Phule Pune University, Pune, 411007, India

    Amit G. Dhorde

  3. Centre for Advanced Training, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, 411008, India

    R. H. Kripalani

  4. Department of Geography, Nowrosjee Wadia College (affiliated to Savitribai Phule Pune University), Pune, 411001, India

    Anargha A. Dhorde

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  1. Mohammad Zarenistanak
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Correspondence to Amit G. Dhorde.

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Zarenistanak, M., Dhorde, A.G., Kripalani, R.H. et al. Trends and projections of temperature, precipitation, and snow cover during snow cover-observed period over southwestern Iran. Theor Appl Climatol 122, 421–440 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1287-8

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