Abstract
This study examines the variabilities in the characteristics of the Tropical Cyclones (TCs), i.e., track, direction, maximum sustained wind (MSW), translation speed (TS), and radius of maximum wind (RMW) over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) Basins for pre-monsoon (PRE) and post-monsoon season (POST) from 60 years data. It is found that there is an increase in the frequency as well as the intensity of TCs over the Arabian Sea (AS) during both these seasons in recent 30 years. For POST, there is a large number of TCs moving in the NW direction for AS and Bay of Bengal (BoB). The percentage of intensified TC [Severe Cyclonic Storm (SCS) category and above] increases up to the stormy day (SD)-4 and then decreases. The TS of TCs has a declining trend over the AS; however, this pattern is only seen for POST over BoB. In addition, it is also noted that TC has the tendency to intensify as its TS slows down. The RMW is initially larger and reduced as TC gains strength, suggesting the intensity of the TCs is inversely proportional to RMW. The longevity of TC is found to be higher over the AS compared to the BoB. It is found that frequencies of simultaneous occurrence of TCs (SCS and above strength) for PRE and POST for the same year have increased over AS and reduced over BoB. The deep wind shear anomaly is stronger (weaker) during the PRE (POST) over both these basins. Unlike the high-pressure region over central India, which is prevailing during the SDs of AS, there are no such features noted for BoB, hence indicating more landfall movement of TC over the Indian mainland. The latent heat flux (LHF) and sensible heat flux (SHF) are higher over the BoB compared to AS, suggesting more intensified TCs over the BoB. The temperature at the two-meter (T2m) anomaly has been found to be higher (lower) over the Indian land region for SDs of AS (BoB). The specific humidity anomaly is found to be higher during the POST as compared to the PRE over both these basins. The findings of the study have a direct consequence toward improving the early warning and disaster mitigation strategies over the Indian region.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
References
Albert J, Bhaskaran PK (2020) Evaluation of track length, residence time and translational speed for tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean. ISH J Hydraul Eng. https://doi.org/10.1080/09715010.2020.1825124
Baisya H, Pattnaik S, Chakraborty T (2020) A coupled modeling approach to understand ocean coupling and energetics of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal basin. Atmos Res 246:105092. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105092
Balaguru K, Taraphdar S, Leung LR, Foltz GR (2014) Increase in the intensity of postmonsoon Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones. Geophys Res Lett 41(10):3594–3601. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060197
Bell SS, Chand SS, Tory KJ, Ye H, Turville C (2020) North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone activity in CMIP5 experiments: future projections using a model-independent detection and tracking scheme. Int J Climatol 40(15):6492–6505. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6594
Carrasco CA, Landsea CW, Lin YL (2014) The influence of tropical cyclone size on its intensification. Weather Forecast 29(3):582–590. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-13-00092.1
Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) (2017) ERA5 Fifth generation of ECMWF atmospheric reanalyses of the global climate. Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Data Store (CDS). https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/home. Accessed Aug 2020
Deshpande M, Singh VK, Ganadhi MK, Roxy MK, Emmanuel R, Kumar U (2021) Changing status of tropical cyclones over the north Indian Ocean. Clim Dyn 57(11):3545–3567. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05880-z
Dube SK, Rao AD, Sinha PC, Murty TS, Bahulayan N (1997) Storm surge in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea the problem and its prediction. Mausam 48(2):283–304
Evan AT, Kossin JP, Chung CE, Ramanathan V (2011) Arabian Sea tropical cyclones intensified by emissions of black carbon and other aerosols. Nature 479:94–97. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10552
Geetha B, Balachandran S (2014) Decadal variations in translational speed of cyclonic disturbances over North Indian Ocean. Mausam 65(1):115–118
Girishkumar MS, Ravichandran M (2012) The influences of ENSO on tropical cyclone activity in the Bay of Bengal during October–December. J Geophys Res Oceans. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007417
Gray WM (1968) Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms. Mon Weather Rev 96:669–700. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1968)096%3c0669:GVOTOO%3e2.0.CO;2
Hersbach H, Bell B, Berrisford P, Hirahara S, Horányi A, Muñoz-Sabater J, Nicolas J, Peubey C, Radu R, Schepers D, Simmons A (2020) The ERA5 global reanalysis. Q J R Meteorol Soc 146(730):1999–2049. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803
India Meteorological Department (IMD) (2019) Track of Cyclones and Depressions over North Indian Ocean. http://14.139.191.203/AboutEAtlas.aspx. Accessed July 2020
India Meteorological Department (IMD) (2020) Regional specialized meteorological centre for tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean. Retrieved from http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/index.php?lang=en. Accessed July 2020
Krishnamurti TN, Pattnaik S, Stefanova L, Kumar TV, Mackey BP, O’shay AJ, Pasch RJ (2005) The hurricane intensity issue. Mon Weather Rev 133(7):1886–1912. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR2954.1
Mei W, Pasquero C, Primeau F (2012) The effect of translation speed upon the intensity of tropical cyclones over the tropical ocean. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050765
Mohanty UC, Osuri KK, Pattanayak S, Sinha P (2012) An observational perspective on tropical cyclone activity over Indian seas in a warming environment. Nat Hazards 63(3):1319–1335. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9810-z
Mohapatra M, Bandyopadhyay BK, Tyagi A (2014) Construction and quality of best tracks parameters for study of climate change impact on tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean during satellite era. In: Monitoring and prediction of tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean and climate change, pp 3–17
Ng EK, Chan JC (2012) Interannual variations of tropical cyclone activity over the north Indian Ocean. Int J Climatol 32(6):819–830. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2304
Rai D, Pattnaik S (2018) Sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensity and structure to planetary boundary layer parameterization. Asia-Pac J Atmos Sci 54(3):473–488. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-018-0053-8
Rajeevan M, Srinivasan J, Niranjan K, Gnanaseelan C, Ali M (2013) On the epochal variation of intensity of tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea. Atmos Sci Lett 14:249–255. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.447
Schreck C, National Center for Atmospheric Research Staff (Eds) (2013) The Climate Data Guide IBTrACS: tropical cyclone best track data. https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/ibtracs-tropical-cyclone-best-track-data. Accessed July 2020
Shay LK, Goni GJ, Black PG (2000) Effect of a warm ocean ring on hurricane Opal. Mon Weather Rev 128(5):1366–1383. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128%3c1366:EOAWOF%3e2.0.CO;2
Singh VK, Roxy MK (2022) A review of the ocean-atmosphere interactions during tropical cyclones in the north Indian Ocean. Earth Sci Rev 16:103967. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.103967
Singh OP, Ali Khan TM, Rahman MS (2000) Changes in the frequency of tropical cyclones over the north Indian Ocean. Meteorol Atmos Phys 75:11–20
State of the Global Climate (2020) WMO Report No-1264. https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=21880#.YIpS8LUzZPY. Accessed Mar 2021
Takagi H, Wu W (2016) Maximum wind radius estimated by the 50 kt radius: improvement of storm surge forecasting over the western North Pacific. Assess Manag Risks Eng Syst Geohazards 12(4):297–307
Tyagi A, Mohapatra M, Bandyopadhyay BK, Kumar N (2010) Interannual variation of frequency of cyclonic disturbances landfalling over WMO/ESCAP panel member countries. World Meteorol Organ World Weather Res Programme 2:1–7
Wang Y, Rao Y, Tan ZM, Schonemann D (2015) A statistical analysis of the effects of vertical wind shear on tropical cyclone intensity change over the western North Pacific. Mon Weather Rev 143(9):3434–3453. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0049.1
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar for providing us all the research facilities and helpful assistance required for this purpose. The authors thankfully acknowledge the India Meteorological Department (IMD), International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS), and European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF-ERA5) for providing us all the data sets required for this study. We are also grateful to Scientific and Engineering Research Board (SERB) for providing necessary support to carry out this work. Figures are created with MATLAB (Version 2017a).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Responsible Editor: Silvia Trini Castelli.
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary Information
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Priya, P., Pattnaik, S. & Trivedi, D. Characteristics of the tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean Basins from the long-term datasets. Meteorol Atmos Phys 134, 65 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-022-00904-7
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-022-00904-7