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Wind speed forecasting using the NARX model, case: La Mata, Oaxaca, México

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Abstract

This study presents the generation of a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) for wind speed forecasting in a 1 h, in advance horizon. A sample of meteorological data of hourly measurements taken during a year was used for the generation of the model. The variables measured were as follows: wind speed, wind direction, solar radiation, pressure, and temperature. All measurements were taken by the Comision Federal de Electricidad (CFE) at La Mata, in the state of Oaxaca, Mexico. Using the Mahalanobis distance, the sample of data was treated in order to detect deviated values in multivariable samples. Later on, the statistical Granger test was conducted to establish the entry variables that would be incorporated into the model. Since solar radiation was the only one determined as the cause for wind speed, it was the variable used in the configuration of the model. To compare the NARX model, a one-variable, nonlinear autoregressive model (NAR) was also generated. Both models, the NARX and the NAR were compared against the persistence model by means of applying the statistical error forecast measurements of mean absolute error, mean squared error, and mean absolute percentage error to the test data. The results showed the NARX model as the most precise of the three, reflecting the importance of the inclusion of additional meteorological variables in the wind speed forecasting models.

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Acknowledgments

The authors wish to thank the Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) for the special considerations given in the preparation of this study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Facultad de Ingeniería Mecánica, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo, Santiago Tapia No. 403, Centro, Mexico

    Erasmo Cadenas

  2. Instituto de Energías Renovables de la Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Apartado Postal 34, 62580, Temixco, Morelos, Mexico

    Wilfrido Rivera & Rafael Campos-Amezcua

  3. Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE), Gerencia de Proyectos de Geotermoeléctricos, Subgerencia de proyectos de Energía Renovable, Alejandro Volta 655, Colonia Electricistas, CP 58240, Morelia, Mexico

    Roberto Cadenas

Authors
  1. Erasmo Cadenas
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  2. Wilfrido Rivera
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  3. Rafael Campos-Amezcua
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  4. Roberto Cadenas
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Wilfrido Rivera.

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Cadenas, E., Rivera, W., Campos-Amezcua, R. et al. Wind speed forecasting using the NARX model, case: La Mata, Oaxaca, México. Neural Comput & Applic 27, 2417–2428 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-015-2012-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-015-2012-y

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