Abstract
Populations of long-distance migrants that breed in seasonal habitats can be significantly impacted by climate change. We examined the migratory and breeding phenologies of the cerulean warbler (Setophaga cerulea), a declining long-distance Nearctic-Neotropical migrant that breeds in deciduous forests of Indiana. Our primary objectives were to determine temporal trends in cerulean warbler migratory timing, and to identify climate variables that explain variation in this species’ migratory and breeding phenologies. We reviewed trends in cerulean warbler first arrival to Indiana from 1982 to 2019, and compared them to several explanatory climate variables: spring temperature, growing degree days (GDD), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). We also compared the timing of cerulean warbler first lay dates from 2012 to 2019 with the aforementioned climate variables and annual spring precipitation. Cerulean warblers exhibited a minimal advance in first arrival timing (≤4 days in 38 years). Arrival timing was best predicted by GDD and a null model, but trends in GDD indicate that spring warming in Indiana has advanced by a greater margin, approximately 14 days. Climate variables did not predict first lay timing better than a null model. Springtime in Indiana is occurring earlier, but cerulean warblers are advancing their migratory timing to a much smaller degree. This failure to adapt may have a detrimental effect on warbler populations if it results in an asynchronization of important biological timings between them and their prey. Further studies of cerulean warbler breeding and prey phenologies are necessary to determine how climate change is impacting this species’ reproductive success.
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Acknowledgements
We would like to thank Kenneth J. Brock for making this research possible by providing a consolidated database of cerulean warbler observations in Indiana. We would also like to thank Paul Venturelli and Jason Doll for their advice and expertise. Lastly, we thank the two anonymous reviewers and the Editor for their comments and edits that improved this manuscript.
Funding
Research in the Hardwood Ecosystem Experiment was funded by the Indiana Department of Natural Resources through Purdue University.
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ESM 1
The number of observers reporting Cerulean Warbler observations in IN, USA from 1950-2019. Prior to 1982, yearly observer number ranged from one to seven individuals. From 1982 onwards, observer number was consistently greater than seven individuals (PNG 500 kb)
ESM 2
Cerulean Warbler first arrival dates (FAD) in Indiana, USA were significantly different depending on the latitudinal region (F [2.37, 66.45] = 16.22, P < 0.0001, η2g = 0.24). FADs across latitude 39°N were significantly earlier than FADs across latitudes 38°N, 40°N, and 41°N (* = P < 0.05, **** = P < 0.0001) (PNG 372 kb)
ESM 3
Simple regression of mean MAMT over time indicates a near-significant average temperature increase of 1.4 °C (y = 0.0365x – 61.3, SE = 0.020, adj. R2 = 0.06, P = 0.07) from 1982-2019 in Indiana, USA (PNG 702 kb)
ESM 4
Growing degree days from 1 January to 23 April increased significantly from 1982 to 2019 (y = 1.7090x – 3317.7, SE = 0.591, adj. R2 = 0.17, P = 0.006) in Indiana, USA (PNG 699 kb)
ESM 5
Simple linear regression of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index from 1982-2019 (y = -0.0050x + 10.2, SE = 0.016, adj. R2 = -0.03, P = 0.75) (PNG 566 kb)
ESM 6
Simple linear regression of the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) from 1982-2019 (y = -0.0058x + 11.7, SE = 0.017, adj. R2 = -0.02, P = 0.73) (PNG 538 kb)
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Connare, B.M., Islam, K. Failure to advance migratory phenology in response to climate change may pose a significant threat to a declining Nearctic-Neotropical songbird. Int J Biometeorol 66, 803–815 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-022-02239-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-022-02239-9