Abstract
Continuous long-term temperature sensitivity (ST) of leaf unfolding date (LUD) and main impacting factors in spring in the period 1978–2014 for 40 plant species in Mudanjiang, Heilongjiang Province, Northeast China, were analyzed by using observation data from the China Phenological Observation Network (CPON), together with the corresponding meteorological data from the China Meteorological Data Service Center. Temperature sensitivities, slopes of the regression between LUD and mean temperature during the optimum preseason (OP), were analyzed using 15-year moving window to determine their temporal trends. Major factors impacting ST were then chosen and evaluated by applying a random sampling method. The results showed that LUD was sensitive to mean temperature in a defined period before phenophase onset for all plant species analyzed. Over the period 1978–2014, the mean ST of LUD for all plant species was − 3.2 ± 0.49 days °C−1. The moving window analysis revealed that 75% of species displayed increasing ST of LUD, with 55% showing significant increases (P < 0.05). ST for the other 25% exhibited a decreasing trend, with 17% showing significant decreases (P < 0.05). On average, ST increased by 16%, from − 2.8 ± 0.83 days °C−1 during 1980–1994 to − 3.30 ± 0.65 days °C−1 during 2000–2014. For species with later LUD and longer OP, ST tended to increase more, while species with earlier LUD and shorter OP tended to display a decreasing ST. The standard deviation of preseason temperature impacted the temporal variation in ST. Chilling conditions influenced ST for some species, but photoperiod limitation did not have significant or coherent effects on changes in ST.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Basler D, Körner C (2012) Photoperiod sensitivity of bud burst in 14 temperate forest tree species. Agri Forest Meteorol 165:73–81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.06.001
Benmoussa H, Ghrab M, Mimoun MB, Luedeling E (2017) Chilling and heat requirements for local and foreign almond (Prunus dulcis Mill.) cultivars in a warm Mediterranean location based on 30 years of phenology records. Agri Forest Meteorol 239:34–46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.02.030
Chen X, Xu L (2012) Phenological responses of Ulmus pumila (Siberian Elm) to climate change in the temperate zone of China. Int J Biometeorol 56(4):695–706. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-011-0471-0
Chuine I, Morin X, Bugmann H (2010) Warming, photoperiods, and tree phenology. Science 329(5989):277–278. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.329.5989.277-e
Cleland EE, Chuine I, Menzel A, Mooney HA, Schwartz MD (2007) Shifting plant phenology in response to global change. Trends Ecol Evol 22(7):357–365. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2007.04.003
Dai JH, Wang HJ, Ge QS (2013) Multiple phenological responses to climate change among 42 plant species in Xi’an, China. Int J Biometeorol 57(5):749–758. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-012-0602-2
Dai JH, Wang HJ, Ge QS (2014) The spatial pattern of leaf phenology and its response to climate change in China. Int J Biometeorol 58(4):521–528. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-013-0679-2
Doi H, Takahashi M (2008) Latitudinal patterns in the phenological responses of leaf colouring and leaf fall to climate change in Japan. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 17(4):556–561. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2008.00398.x
Fu YH, Zhao H, Piao S, Peaucelle M, Peng S, Zhou G, Ciais P, Huang MT, Menzel A, Peñuelas J, Song Y, Vitasse Y, Zeng ZZ, Janssens IA (2015) Declining global warming effects on the phenology of spring leaf unfolding. Nature 526(7571):104–107. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature15402
Ge QS, Wang HJ, Rutishauser T, Dai JH (2015) Phenological response to climate change in China: a meta-analysis. Glob Chang Biol 21:265–274. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12648
Güsewell S, Furrer R, Gehrig R, Pietragalla B (2017) Changes in temperature sensitivity of spring phenology with recent climate warming in Switzerland are related to shifts of the preseason. Glob Chang Biol 23(12):5189–5202. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13781
Jochner S, Sparks TH, Laube J, Menzel A (2016) Can we detect a nonlinear response to temperature in European plant phenology? Int J Biometeorol 60(10):1551–1561. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-016-1146-7
Liang L, Schwartz MD, Fei S (2012) Photographic assessment of temperate forest understory phenology in relation to springtime meteorological drivers. Int J Biometeorol 56(2):343–355. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-011-0438-1
Matsumoto K, Ohta T, Irasawa M, Nakamura T (2003) Climate change and extension of the Ginkgo biloba L. growing season in Japan. Glob Chang Biol 9(11):1634–1642. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00688.x
McCabe GJ, Ault TR, Cook BI, Betancourt JL, Schwartz MD (2012) Influences of the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Pacific decadal oscillation on the timing of the North American spring. Int J Climatol 32(15):2301–2310. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3400
Menzel A, Sparks TH, Estrella N et al (2006) European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern. Glob Chang Biol 12(10):1969–1976. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01193.x
Morin X, Augspurger C, Chuine I (2007) Process-based modeling of species' distributions: what limits temperate tree species’ range boundaries? Ecology 88(9):2280–2291. https://doi.org/10.1890/06-1591.1
Morin X, Roy J, Sonié L, Chuine I (2010) Changes in leaf phenology of three European oak species in response to experimental climate change. New Phytol 186(4):900–910. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03252.x
Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts in natural systems. Nature 421(6918):37–42. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01286
Richardson A, Keenan T, Migliavacca M, Ryu Y, Sonnentag O, Toomey M (2013) Climate change, phenology, and phenological control of vegetation feedbacks to the climate system. Agri Forest Meteoro 169:156–173. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.09.012
Root TL, Price JT, Hall KR, Schneider SH, Rosenzweig C, Pounds JA (2003) Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421(6918):57–60. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01333
Rutishauser T, Luterbacher J, Jeanneret F, Pfister C, Wanner H (2007) A phenology-based reconstruction of interannual changes in past spring seasons. J Geophys Res Biogeosci 112:G04016. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JG000382
Schwartz MD, Ahas R, Aasa A (2006) Onset of spring starting earlier across the Northern Hemisphere. Glob Chang Biol 12(2):343–351. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01097.x
Shen MG, Tang YH, Chen J, Yang X, Wang C, Cui XY, Yang YP, Han LJ, Li L, Du JH, Zhang GX, Cong N (2014) Earlier-Season vegetation has greater temperature sensitivity of spring phenology in Northern Hemisphere. PLoS One 9(2):e88178. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088178
Visser ME (2016) Phenology: interactions of climate change and species. Nature 535(7611):236–237. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18905
Vitasse Y, Lenz A, Körner C (2014) The interaction between freezing tolerance and phenology in temperate deciduous trees. Front Plant Sci 5:541. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2014.00541
Vitasse Y, Balser D (2013) What role for photoperiod in the bud burst phenology of European beech. Eur J Forest Res 132(1):1–8. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-012-0661-2
Wang T, Ottlé C, Peng SS, Janssens IA, Lin X, Poulter B, Yue C, Ciais P (2014) The influence of local spring temperature variance on temperature sensitivity of spring phenology. Glob Chang Biol 20(5):1473–1480. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12509
Wang HJ, Ge QS, Dai JH, Tao ZX (2015) Geographical pattern in first bloom variability and its relation to temperature sensitivity in the USA and China. Int J Biometeorol 59(8):961–969. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-014-0909-2
Wang HJ, Rutishauser T, Tao ZX, Zhong SY, Ge QS, Dai JH (2017) Impacts of global warming on phenology of spring leaf unfolding remain stable in the long run. Int J Biometeorol 61(2):287–292. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-016-1210-3
Zhang XS, Vegetation Map of China Committee, Chinese Academy of Science (2007) Vegetation map of China and its geographic pattern: illustration of the vegetation map of the People’s Republic of China (1: 1,000,000). Geological Publishing House, Beijing (in Chinese)
Zhang HC, Yuan WP, Liu SG, Dong WJ, Fu Y (2015a) Sensitivity of flowering phenology to changing temperature in China. J Geophys Res: Biogeosci 120:1658–1665. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JG003112
Zhang HC, Yuan WP, Liu SG, Dong WJ (2015b) Divergent responses of leaf phenology to changing temperature among plant species and geographical regions. Ecosphere 6(12). https://doi.org/10.1890/ES15-00223.1
Funding
This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41601047, 41771056) and the National Major Instruments Development Project (No.41427805).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding authors
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Dai, J., Xu, Y., Wang, H. et al. Variations in the temperature sensitivity of spring leaf phenology from 1978 to 2014 in Mudanjiang, China. Int J Biometeorol 63, 569–577 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-017-1489-8
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-017-1489-8