Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Spatio-temporal dynamic climate model for Neoleucinodes elegantalis using CLIMEX

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
International Journal of Biometeorology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Seasonal variations are important components in understanding the ecology of insect population of crops. Ecological studies through modeling may be a useful tool for enhancing knowledge of seasonal patterns of insects on field crops as well as seasonal patterns of favorable climatic conditions for species. Recently CLIMEX, a semi-mechanistic niche model, was upgraded and enhanced to consider spatio-temporal dynamics of climate suitability through time. In this study, attempts were made to determine monthly variations of climate suitability for Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) in five commercial tomato crop localities through the latest version of CLIMEX. We observed that N. elegantalis displays seasonality with increased abundance in tomato crops during summer and autumn, corresponding to the first 6 months of the year in monitored areas in this study. Our model demonstrated a strong accord between the CLIMEX weekly growth index (GIw) and the density of N. elegantalis for this period, thus indicating a greater confidence in our model results. Our model shows a seasonal variability of climatic suitability for N. elegantalis and provides useful information for initiating methods for timely management, such as sampling strategies and control, during periods of high degree of suitability for N. elegantalis. In this study, we ensure that the simulation results are valid through our verification using field data.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Agroalimentaria (2015) Gusano Perforador del fruto del Tomate - Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée). Accessed 1 September 2015

  • Aljaryian R, Kumar L, Taylor S (2016) Modelling the current and potential future distributions of the sunn pest Eurygaster integriceps (Hemiptera: Scutelleridae) using CLIMEX pest management science

  • Allstadt AJ, Liebhold AM, Johnson DM, Davis RE, Haynes KJ (2015) Temporal variation in the synchrony of weather and its consequences for spatiotemporal population dynamics. Ecology 96:2935–2946

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Andrewartha HG, Birch LC (1954) The distribution and abundance of animals. University of Chicago Press, Chicago

  • Bacci L, Picanço MC, Moura MF, Della Lucia TM, Semeão AA (2006) Sampling plan for Diaphania spp. (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) and for hymenopteran parasitoids on cucumber. J Econ Entomol 99:2177–2184

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Basnet S, Kuhar T, Laub C, Pfeiffer D (2015) Seasonality and distribution pattern of brown marmorated stink bug (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) in Virginia vineyards. J Econ Entomol 108:1902–1909

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Blackmer JL, Eiras AE, de Souza CL (2001) Oviposition preference of Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) and rates of parasitism by Trichogramma pretiosum Riley (hymenoptera: Trichogrammatidae) on Lycopersicon esculentum in São José de Ubá RJ, Brazil. Neotrop Entomol 30:89–95

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Braak Ct, Smilauer P (2002) CANOCO reference manual and CanoDraw for Windows, users guide software for canonical community ordination (version 45) microcomputer power (Ithaca, NY ASA)

  • Campos WG, Schoereder JH, De Souza OF (2006) Seasonality in neotropical populations of Plutella xylostella (Lepidoptera): resource availability and migration. Popul Ecol 48:151–158

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carvalho SPL (2003) Resíduos de deltametrina e de carbaril em dois sistemas de condução da cultura de tomate estaqueado (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill) e sua eficiência no controle da broca-pequena-do-fruto Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée, 1854) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae). Dissertation, Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz, Universidade de São Paulo

  • Chown SL, Nicolson S (2004) Insect physiological ecology: mechanisms and patterns. Oxford University Press, Oxford

  • Cocco A, Deliperi S, Lentini A, Mannu R, Delrio G (2015) Seasonal phenology of Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) in protected and open-field crops under Mediterranean climatic conditions. Phytoparasitica 43:713–724

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Colinet H, Sinclair BJ, Vernon P, Renault D (2015) Insects in fluctuating thermal environments. Annu Rev Entomol 60:123–140

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • De Villiers M, Hattingh V, Kriticos D (2012) Combining field phenological observations with distribution data to model the potential distribution of the fruit fly Ceratitis rosa Karsch (Diptera: Tephritidae). Bull Entomol Res 103:60–73

  • De Villiers M et al (2015) The potential distribution of Bactrocera dorsalis: considering phenology and irrigation patterns. Bull Entomol Res. doi:10.1017/S0007485315000693

  • Desneux N et al (2010) Biological invasion of European tomato crops by Tuta absoluta: ecology, geographic expansion and prospects for biological control. J Pest Sci 83:197–215

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Díaz-Montilla AE, Solis A, Brochero HL (2011) Distribución geográfica de Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Lepidoptera: crambidae) en colombia. Rev Colomb Entomol 37:71–76

    Google Scholar 

  • Díaz-Montilla AE, Suárez-Barón HG, Gallego-Sánchez G, Saldamando-Benjumea CI, Tohme J (2013) Geographic differentiation of Colombian Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) haplotypes: evidence for Solanaceae host plant association and Holdridge life zones for genetic differentiation. Ann Entomol Soc Am 106:586–597

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Díaz-Montilla A, González R, Solis MA, Saldamando-Benjumea C (2015) Evidence of sexual selection in Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae): correlation of female moth genitalia and Solanaceae host fruit size. Ann Entomol Soc Am 108:272–281

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Drake VA, Gatehouse AG (1995) Insect migration: tracking resources through space and time. Cambridge University Press. doi:10.1017/CBO9780511470875

  • EPPO [European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organisation] (2014) Pest risk analysis for Neoleucinodes elegantalis. http://www.eppo.int/QUARANTINE/Pest_Risk_Analysis/PRA_intro.htm. Accessed 20 September 2015

  • EPPO [European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organisation] (2015) Neoleucinodes elegantalis. Bull OEPP/EPPO Bull 45:9–13. doi:10.1111/epp.12189

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • EPPO [European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organisation] (2016) PQR—EPPO database on quarantine pests (available online), http://www.eppo.int

  • Ferro D (1987) Insect pest outbreaks in agroecosystems. Insect outbreaks:195–215

  • Flores GMM (2015) Evaluación de la eficiencia de tres insecticidas biológicos comerciales en el control del perforador del fruto (Neoleucinodes elegantalis G.) en el cultivo de naranjilla (Solanum quitoense L). Universidad Técnica de Babahoyo

  • França SM et al (2015) Integrated management of tomato fruit borer (Neoleucinodes elegantalis) African. J Agric Res 10:4561–4569

    Google Scholar 

  • Heuvelink E (2005) Tomatoes vol 13. CABI,

  • Holland RA, Wikelski M, Wilcove DS (2006) How and why do insects migrate? Science 313:794–796

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Jarnevich CS, Stohlgren TJ, Kumar S, Morisette JT, Holcombe TR (2015) Caveats for correlative species distribution modeling. Ecol Info 29:6–15

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jones Jr JB (2007) Tomato plant culture: in the field, greenhouse, and home garden. CRC press,

  • Jones P, Harris I (2015) CRU TS3. 20: Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Time-Series (TS) Version 3.23 of High Resolution Gridded Data of Month-by-Month Variation in Climate (January 1901–December 2014) Climate Research unit data, doi:D0E1585D-3417 doi: 10.5285/4c7fdfa6-f176-4c58-acee-683d5e9d2ed5

  • Karuppaiah V (2015) Seasonality and management of stone weevil, Aubeus himalayanus Voss (Curculionidae: Coleoptera): an emerging pest of Indian Jujube (Ziziphus mauritiana L.) African. J Agric Res 10:871–876

    Google Scholar 

  • Kishimoto-Yamada K, Itioka T (2015) How much have we learned about seasonality in tropical insect abundance since Wolda (1988)? Entomol Sci 18:407–419

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kottek M, Grieser J, Beck C, Rudolf B, Rubel F (2006) World map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification updated. Meteorol Z 15:259–263

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kriticos DJ, Leriche A (2010) The effects of climate data precision on fitting and projecting species niche models. Ecography 33:115–127

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kriticos D, Maywald G, Yonow T, Zurcher E, Herrmann N, Sutherst R (2015) CLIMEX Version 4: exploring the effects of climate on plants, animals and diseases. CSIRO, Canberra, p 184

  • Lavergne S, Mouquet N, Thuiller W, Ronce O (2010) Biodiversity and climate change: integrating evolutionary and ecological responses of species and communities annual review of ecology. Evol Syst 41:321–350

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marcano R (1991a) Ciclo biológico del perforador del fruto del tomate Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), usando berenjena (Solanum melongena) como alimento. Boletin de Entomologia Venezolana 6:135–141

    Google Scholar 

  • Marcano R (1991b) Estudio de la biología y algunos aspectos del comportamiento del perforador del fruto del tomate Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) en tomate. Agronomia Tropical 41:257–263

    Google Scholar 

  • Montilla AED, Solis MA, Kondo T (2013) The Tomato Fruit Borer, Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), an insect pest of neotropical solanaceous fruits potential invasive pests of agricultural crops. Peña JE (ed) CABI 3:137

  • Moraes CP, Foerster LA (2015) Thermal requirements, fertility, and number of generations of Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae). Neotrop Entomol:1–7

  • Pedigo LP, Rice ME (2014) Entomology and pest management, 6th edn. Waveland Press, Long Groove

  • Pereira E, Picanço M, Bacci L, Crespo A, Guedes R (2007) Seasonal mortality factors of the coffee leafminer Leucoptera coffeella. Bull Entomol Res 97:421–432

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Picanço MC, Bacci L, Silva EM, Morais EG, Silva GA, Silva NR (2007) Manejo integrado das pragas do tomateiro no Brasil. In: Tomate: tecnologia de produção. UFV, Viçosa, pp. 199–232

    Google Scholar 

  • Ramirez-Cabral NYZ, Kumar L, Taylor S (2016) Crop niche modeling projects major shifts in common bean growing areas. Agric For Meteorol 218:102–113

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rankin M, Burchsted J (1992) The cost of migration in insects. Annu Rev Entomol 37:533–559

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rao CR (1964) The use and interpretation of principal component analysis in applied research Sankhyā. Indian J Statistics Series A:329–358

    Google Scholar 

  • Rosado JF et al (2015) Seasonal variation in the populations of Polyphagotarsonemus latus and Tetranychus bastosi in physic nut (Jatropha curcas) plantations. Exp Appl Acarol 66:415–426

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sakai AK et al (2001) The population biology of invasive specie. Annu Rev Ecol Syst:305–332

  • Satar S, Raspi A, Özdemir I, Tusun A, Karacaoğlu M, Benelli G (2015) Seasonal habits of predation and prey range in aphidophagous silver flies (Diptera Chamaemyiidae), an overlooked family of biological control agents. Bull Insectol 68:173–180

    Google Scholar 

  • Segovia SGY (2012) Evaluación de un virus entomopatógeno como potencial agente de control biológico de Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae). Dissertation, Universidad Austral de Chile

  • Semeão A, Martins J, Picanço M, Chediak M, da Silva E, Silva G (2012) Seasonal variation of natural mortality factors of the guava psyllid Triozoida limbata. Bull Entomol Res 102:719–729

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shabani F, Kumar L (2013) Risk levels of Invasive Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. in areas suitable for date palm (Phoenix dactylifera) cultivation under various climate change projections

  • Shabani F, Kumar L (2014) Sensitivity analysis of CLIMEX parameters in modeling potential distribution of (Phoenix dactylifera L.) PloS One 9.4: e94867

  • Shabani F, Kotey B (2016) Future distribution of cotton and wheat in Australia under potential climate change. J Agric Sci 154(02), 175–185

  • Shabani F, Kumar L, Taylor S (2012) Climate change impacts on the future distribution of date palms: a modeling exercise using CLIMEX

  • Shabani F, Kumar L, Taylor S (2015) Distribution of date palms in the Middle East based on future climate scenarios. Exp Agric 51:244–263

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shabani F, Kumar L, Ahmadi M (2016) A comparison of absolute performance of different correlative and mechanistic species distribution models in an independent area. Ecol Evol 6(16):5973–5986

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Silva RS, Kumar L, Shabani F, Picanço MC (2016a) Potential risk levels of invasive Neoleucinodes elegantalis (small tomato borer) in areas optimal for open‐field Solanum lycopersicum (tomato) cultivation in the present and under predicted climate change. Pest Manag Sci. doi:10.1002/ps.4344

  • Silva RS, Kumar L, Shabani F, Picanço MC (2016b) Assessing the impact of global warming on worldwide open field tomato cultivation through CSIROMk3 · 0 global climate model. J Agric Sci 1-14. doi:10.1017/S0021859616000654

  • Silva ÉM (2006) Plano de amostragem convencional de Neoleucinodes elegantalis na cultura do tomateiro. Dissertation, Universidade Federal de Viçosa

  • Silva ÉM (2010) Fatores determinantes do ataque de Neoleucinodes elegantalis ao tomateiro. Dissertation, Universidade Federal de Viçosa

  • Sutherst R, Maywald G, Kriticos D (2007) CLIMEX version 3: user’s guide. Hearne Scientific Software Pty Ltd

  • Varella AC, Menezes-Netto AC, de Souza Alonso JD, Caixeta DF, Peterson RK, Fernandes OA (2015) Mortality dynamics of Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) immatures in maize. PLoS One 10:e0130437

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webber BL et al (2011) Modelling horses for novel climate courses: insights from projecting potential distributions of native and alien Australian acacias with correlative and mechanistic models. Divers Distrib 17:978–1000

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wolda H (1978) Seasonal fluctuations in rainfall, food and abundance of tropical insects. J Anim Ecol:369–381

  • Wolda H (1988) Insect seasonality: why? Annu Rev Ecol Syst:1–18

  • Zera AJ, Denno RF (1997) Physiology and ecology of dispersal polymorphism in insects. Annu Rev Entomol 42:207–230

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This research was supported by the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico—CNPq), the Brazilian Federal Agency, for the Support and Evaluation of Graduate Education (Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Ensino Superior—CAPES) and the School of Environmental and Rural Science of the University of New England (UNE), Armidale, Australia. The simulations were carried out using computational facilities at UNE. We would like to thank Darren Kriticos for poviding the formatted CRU dataset for use in CLIMEX and the Climatic Research Unit (CRU), Norwich (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg.htm).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Departamento de Fitotecnia, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, MG, 36571-000, Brazil

    Ricardo Siqueira da Silva, Tarcisio Visintin da Silva Galdino & Marcelo Coutinho Picanço

  2. Ecosystem Management, School of Environmental and Rural Science, University of New England, Armidale, NSW, 2351, Australia

    Ricardo Siqueira da Silva, Lalit Kumar & Farzin Shabani

  3. Instituto de Ciências Agrárias, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Campus de Rio Paranaíba, MG, 38810-000, Brazil

    Ezio Marques da Silva

  4. Departamento de Entomologia, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, MG, 36571-000, Brazil

    Marcelo Coutinho Picanço

Authors
  1. Ricardo Siqueira da Silva
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Lalit Kumar
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Farzin Shabani
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Ezio Marques da Silva
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Tarcisio Visintin da Silva Galdino
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Marcelo Coutinho Picanço
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ricardo Siqueira da Silva.

Electronic supplementary material

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

da Silva, R.S., Kumar, L., Shabani, F. et al. Spatio-temporal dynamic climate model for Neoleucinodes elegantalis using CLIMEX. Int J Biometeorol 61, 785–795 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-016-1256-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-016-1256-2

Keywords

Search

Navigation