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A review on the scaling properties in maximum rainfall marginal distributions: theoretical background, probabilistic modeling, and recent developments

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Abstract

The modeling of sub-daily extreme rainfall has long constituted a challenge for hydrologists in view of the limited availability of data, both in time and space. In this context, the scale invariance principle, which formally links precipitation intensities across a range of time scales under a rigorous theoretical underpin, comprises a useful and parsimonious tool for deriving probabilistic models for the referred stochastic variables. This paper aims at reviewing the history of application of the scale invariance principle to the marginal distributions of intense precipitation, as well as presenting recent developments in this field. We first address the basic concepts and the mathematical formalism of scale invariant models, discussing distinct scaling regimes across durations and estimation procedures. Next, we present a comprehensive review on at-site and regional stationary scaling models applied in several regions of the world, with focus on their underlying assumptions and main limitations. Finally, we address extensions of the rationale for nonstationary models as a means of accommodating potential effects of climate change in extreme short-duration rainfall. While discussing each of these frameworks, we indicate potential research gaps and modeling developments which could further advance the understanding of scaling behavior of extreme precipitation and improve statistical inference. Hence, this review may constitute a useful guide for practitioners and motivate future research in the modeling of short-duration extreme rainfall.

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Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledge the support to this research from Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq), Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES), and Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais (FAPEMIG). The authors also wish to acknowledge the anonymous reviewer and editors for the valuable comments and suggestions, which greatly helped improving the paper.

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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Literature search was performed by AGB and improvements and review was performed by VAFC. The first draft of the manuscript was written by AGB and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Alan de Gois Barbosa.

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Barbosa, A.G., Costa, V. A review on the scaling properties in maximum rainfall marginal distributions: theoretical background, probabilistic modeling, and recent developments. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 37, 4541–4553 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-023-02546-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-023-02546-6

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