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Semi-quantitative landslide risk assessment of district Muzaffarabad, northwestern Himalayas, Pakistan

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Abstract

The southwestern foothills of the Himalayan Mountain range have been experiencing a surge of catastrophic landslides in the last two decades, as a tragic result of the adverse effects of climate change. This research is about the landslide risk assessment (LRA) which has not been explored yet in the landslide-prone district Muzaffarabad, Pakistan. Landslide susceptibility (spatial probability) was analyzed using random forest model while landslide hazard (temporal probability) was analyzed using Poisson probability model. A random forest-based landslide susceptibility map depicts an accuracy of 0.90. A landslide hazard map was generated by multiplying the temporal probability with the spatial probability and classified as well. Semi-quantitative danger pixels and a fuzzy set theory approach for LRA have been adopted to estimate future landslide risks in the region. The pixel-based LRA approach indicates that 14, 18 and 20 km2 area of settlement while, the fuzzy set theory-based approach depicts that 15, 19 and 21 km2 area of the settlement are under very high landslide risk for 1-, 3-, and 5- year return period respectively. Both approaches produced risk maps that designated various risk zones with almost the same area coverage and results. The LRA maps were classified into five classes including very high (1.99%, 2.33%, 2.80%), high (2.16%, 2.53%, 3.04%), moderate (8.02%, 9.79%, 11.22%), low (17.76%, 22.94%, 23.20%), and very low (70.08%, 62.40%, 59.74%) risk zones for 1, 3 and 5 years return period respectively. This research will assist planners and scientists in developing high-precision management strategies for landslide-affected natural resources, especially in the context of the increasing impact of geomorphic hazards on climate change.

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Acknowledgements

The authors gratefully acknowledged the Higher Education Commission (HEC) Pakistan, for supporting the current study under NRPU grant No.8899. The authors are also grateful to the Landuse Planning, Planning and Development Department, AJK for providing municipal boundaries and other related data.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Geology, University of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Muzaffarabad, 13100, Pakistan

    Muhammad Tayyib Riaz, Muhammad Basharat & Malik Talha Riaz

  2. CNR IRPI, Via Madonna Alta 126, 06128, Perugia, Italy

    Maria Teresa Brunetti

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  1. Muhammad Tayyib Riaz
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  4. Malik Talha Riaz
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Contributions

Muhammad Tayyib Riaz contributed to the initial conception and design of the study, developed the methodology used in the research, and wrote the original draft of the paper; Muhammad Basharat oversaw the project as a whole, and played a key role in reviewing and editing the manuscript; Maria Teresa Brunetti contributed in writing, editing and reviewing the manuscript; Malik Talha Malik performed data curation and formal Analysis. All authors have reviewed the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Muhammad Tayyib Riaz.

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Riaz, M.T., Basharat, M., Brunetti, M.T. et al. Semi-quantitative landslide risk assessment of district Muzaffarabad, northwestern Himalayas, Pakistan. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 37, 3551–3570 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-023-02462-9

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