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Association of tropical daily precipitation extremes with physical covariates in a changing climate

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Abstract

The association of daily precipitation extremes (PEX) with maximum daily temperature (T), dew point temperature (DPT) and precipitable water (PW) are investigated throughout India during 1979–2016 using station-based data and gridded products from India Meteorological Department and climate reanalyses (ERA5). The dependence structure of PEX with physical covariates are modelled through copula for selected cities with different climatic types. The largest scaling coefficients, both negative (upto − 25%/°C with T) and positive (28%/°C with DPT, four times Clausius-Clapeyron rates) are observed in Mumbai. For all the cities, the median value of rainfall extremes increases with decrease in the conditioning variables T and DPT; but increases with increase in PW. Future scaling analyses using ensemble mean of 13 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from CMIP6 show strongly negative to slight positive scaling with T over a large part of India, although there are fluctuations over the three epochs (2015–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100).

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Data availability

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledge the partial support provided by DST-SERB through the project ECR/2017/001880. Further, the authors acknowledge the data of daily precipitation and temperature from India Meteorological Department (IMD), and reanalysis data from Climate Prediction Centre (CPC), NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD Boulder, Colorado, USA (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) (https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/) and future datasets from Bias Corrected Climate Projections from CMIP6 Models for South Asia (https://zenodo.org/record/3987736#.YqCofahBzDf) by Mishra et al. (2020). The authors would also like to acknowledge the support received from the Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology (Indian School of Mines), Dhanbad, during the research work. The authors also acknowledge Dr. Rajesh Nune, Scientist-Hydrology, ICRISAT Development Center, International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics, Hyderabad, Telangana and Mr. Purushottam Agrawal, Executive Engineer/Water Resources Dept., Govt. of Chhattisgarh for providing rainfall data for Hyderabad and Raipur respectively.

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  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology (Indian School of Mines), Dhanbad, Jharkhand, 826004, India

    Sachidanand Kumar, Kironmala Chanda & Srinivas Pasupuleti

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Material preparation, data collection and formal analysis were performed and first draft of the manuscript was written by Sachidanand Kumar. Kironmala Chanda contributed to the study conception, design and supervision. Srinivas Pasupuleti commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Kumar, S., Chanda, K. & Pasupuleti, S. Association of tropical daily precipitation extremes with physical covariates in a changing climate. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 37, 3021–3039 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-023-02433-0

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