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Influence of source uncertainty on stochastic ground motion simulation: a case study of the 2022 Mw 6.6 Luding, China, earthquake

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Abstract

On September 5, 2022 (local time), a magnitude 6.6 earthquake was reported to have occurred in Luding County, Sichuan Province, Southwest China. In this simulation, a widely used stochastic finite-fault model was used to analyze how the source models affect the near-fault earthquake ground motion simulations of the 2022 Mw 6.6 Luding earthquake in China. Seven different slip models, one of them obtained from common fault parameters and random distributed slip amount, were used to yield the best match with the recordings. The simulated earthquake ground motions calculated in the frequency band of 0.05–20 Hz were compared with the observed values in both the time and frequency domains. Twelve acceleration observation stations located near the fault plane were selected in our simulation for comparison. The average H/V curves were estimated using the available acceleration records to consider the local site effect at each selected station. The research results indicate that none of the source models adopted in this study fully estimate the observed values at all the selected ground-motion stations. The simulated values of some slip models underestimate the level of the Fourier amplitude spectrum at frequencies above 6 Hz. The underestimation may be attributed to the directivity effect, which may produce a higher amplitude of observed ground motion in the high-frequency band. All the slip models show similar average model deviations except for the random slip model. Finally, the peak ground accelerations and peak ground velocities were predicted at these selected near-fault observation stations. The results indicate that the peak accelerations and velocities obtained from seven slip models correlate well with each other, but are slightly lower than the recorded values at most stations. In addition, the synthetized results calculated from the random and inverted slip models can be the same level only if a greater stress drop is adopted in the random model.

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Data availability

The commonly used EXSIM Fortran program coda can be available at https://daveboore.com_www.daveboore.com/software_online.html. Some model parameters required for the simulation of the 2022 Luding, China, earthquake were collected from Han et al. (2022). The data support the fundings of this paper can be available from the Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration upon reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank Prof. D. M. Boore for providing the EXSIM_DMB program code and the China Strong Ground Motion Networks Center for providing the recordings of the 2022 Luding earthquake. The authors sincerely thank AJE (https://www.aje.com) for providing the linguistic assistance during the preparation of the original manuscript. The authors would like to show their thanks to two anonymous reviewers, the Editor-in-Chief, and the editors related for their valuable comments and suggestions that improved the article.

Funding

This work was supported by the National Key Research & Development Program of China (Grant No. 2022YFC3003601), the Natural National Science Foundation for Young Scientists of China (Grant No. 42204050), the Postdoctoral Office of Guangzhou City, China (Grant No. 62216242), the Postdoctoral Program of International Training Program for Young Talents of Guangdong Province.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Civil Engineering, Guangzhou University, No.230 Waihuan West Road, Guangzhou, 510006, Guangdong Province, China

    Pengfei Dang, Jie Cui & Yadong Li

  2. Guangdong Engineering Research Center for Underground Infrastructural Protection in Coastal Clay Area, No.230 Waihuan West Road, Guangzhou, 510006, Guangdong Province, China

    Pengfei Dang, Jie Cui & Yadong Li

  3. Earth System Science Programme. Faculty of Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, 999077, Hong Kong, China

    Pengfei Dang

  4. School of Civil Engineering, Suzhou University of Science and Technology, No.1701 Binhe Road, Suzhou, 215011, Jiangsu Province, China

    Qifang Liu

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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by PD and YL. The first draft of the manuscript was written by PD and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Yadong Li.

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Dang, P., Cui, J., Liu, Q. et al. Influence of source uncertainty on stochastic ground motion simulation: a case study of the 2022 Mw 6.6 Luding, China, earthquake. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 37, 2943–2960 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-023-02427-y

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