Abstract
Flood season segmentation, which partitions an entire flood season into multiple subseasons, constitutes a considerable water resources management task. Moreover, the risks associated with various schemes for flood season segmentation should be evaluated. Preliminary analysis in this study used the principal component based outlier detection (PCOut) algorithm to identify possible outlying observations to reduce the uncertainty involved in flood season segmentation. Then, a quantitative measurement, the seasonal exceedance probability (SEP), was proposed to evaluate various segmentation schemes. The SEP quantifies the risk that the maximum observation occurs outside the main flood season. Several findings were derived based on a case study of China’s Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) and daily streamflow records (1882–2010). (1) The PCOut algorithm was found effective in identifying outliers, and the estimation uncertainty of the segmentation evaluation due to outliers decreased when the end date of main flood season (EDMFS) was postponed. (2) The proposed SEP measurement was shown capable of supporting quantitative evaluation of the segmentation schemes in the flood season. (3) The current flood segmentation scheme based on an EDMFS of September 10 is sufficiently safe for the TGR. The findings of this study could help in the proper operation of the TGR.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Aziz K, Haque MM, Rahman A, Shamseldin AY, Shoaib M (2016) Flood estimation in ungauged catchments: application of artificial intelligence based methods for Eastern Australia. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 31(6):1499-1514
Balzanella A, Romano E, Verde R (2016) Modified half-region depth for spatially dependent functional data. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 31(1):87–103
Becker C, Gather U (1999) The masking breakdown point of multivariate outlier identification rules. J Am Stat Assoc 94(447):947–955
Beurton S, Thieken AH (2009) Seasonality of floods in Germany. Hydrol Sci J 54(1):62–76
Black AR, Werritty A (1997) Seasonality of flooding: a case study of North Britain. J Hydrol 195(1):1–25
Cai Y, Davies N (2003) A simple diagnostic method of outlier detection for stationary gaussian time series. J Appl Stat 30(2):205–223
Chebana F, Dabo-Niang S, Ouarda TBMJ (2012) Exploratory functional flood frequency analysis and outlier detection. Water Resour Res 48(4):W04514
Chen L, Singh VP, Guo S, Fang B, Liu P (2013) A new method for identification of flood seasons using directional statistics. Hydrol Sci J 58(1):28–40
Chen L, Singh VP, Guo S, Zhou J, Zhang J, Liu P (2015) An objective method for partitioning the entire flood season into multiple sub-seasons. J Hydrol 528:621–630
Cohn TA, Engl JF, Berenbrock CE, Mason RR, Stedinger JR, Lamontagne JR (2013) A generalized Grubbs–Beck test statistic for detecting multiple potentially influential low outliers in flood series. Water Resour Res 49(8):5047–5058
Corney PM, Le DM, Smart SM, Kirby KJ, Bunce RGH, Marrs RH (2006) Relationships between the species composition of forest field-layer vegetation and environmental drivers, assessed using a national scale survey. J Ecol 94(2):383–401
Cunderlik JM, Ouarda TBMJ, Bobée B (2004a) On the objective identification of flood seasons. Water Resour Res 40(1):62–74
Cunderlik JM, Ouarda TBMJ, Bobée B (2004b) Determination of flood seasonality from hydrological records. Hydrol Sci J 49(3):511–526
Das S (2016) An assessment of using subsampling method in selection of a flood frequency distribution. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 31(8):2033-2045
Daszykowski M, Kaczmarek K, Vander Heyden Y, Walczak B (2007) Robust statistics in data analysis—a review basic concepts. Chemom Intell Lab Syst 85(2):203–219
Fabio R, Mauro F, Pasquale V (1984) Two-component extreme value distribution for flood frequency analysis. Water Resour Res 27(7):847–856
Filzmoser P, Maronna R, Werner M (2008) Outlier identification in high dimensions. Comput Stat Data Anal 52(3):1694–1711
Gado TA, Nguyen V-T-V (2016) Comparison of homogenous region delineation approaches for regional flood frequency analysis at ungauged sites. J Hydrol Eng 21(3):04015068
Grubel R (1996) Orthogonalization of multivariate location estimators: the orthomedian. Ann Stat 24(4):1457–1473
Guo S, Chen L, Singh VP (2007) Flood coincidence risk analysis using multivariate copula functions. J Hydrol Eng 17(6):742–755
Hau MC, Tong H (1989) A practical method for outlier detection in autoregressive time series modelling. Stoch Hydrol Hydraul 3(4):241–260
Hodge VJ, Austin J (2004) A survey of outlier detection methodologies. Artif Intell Rev 22(2):85–126
Hosking JRM (1990) L-moments: analysis and estimation of distributions using linear combinations of order statistics. J R Stat Soc B 52(1):105–124
Huang L, Fang H, Xu X et al (2017) Stochastic modeling of phosphorus transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir by incorporating variability associated with the phosphorus partition coefficient. Sci Total Environ 592:649–661
Japkowicz N, Myers C, Gluck M (1995) A novelty detection approach to classification. In: Proceedings of the 14th international conference on artificial intelligence (IJCAI-95), pp 518–523
Koutroulis AG, Tsanis IK, Daliakopoulos IN (2010) Seasonality of floods and their hydrometeorologic characteristics in the island of Crete. J Hydrol 394:90–100
Lamontagne JR, Stedinger JR (2016) Examination of the Spencer–Mccuen outlier-detection test for log-Pearson type 3 distributed data. J Hydrol Eng 21(3):04015069
Lamontagne JR, Stedinger JR, Yu X, Whealton CA, Xu Z (2016) Robust flood frequency analysis: performance of EMA with multiple Grubbs–Beck outlier tests. Water Resour Res 52(4):3068–3084
Liu P, Guo S, Xiong L, Chen L (2010) Flood season segmentation based on the probability change-point analysis technique. Hydrol Sci J 55(4):540–554
Liu P, Li L, Guo S, Xiong L, Zhang W, Zhang J, Xu C-Y (2015) Optimal design of seasonal flood limited water levels and its application for the Three Gorges Reservoir. J Hydrol 527:1045–1053
Macdonald N, Phillips ID, Mayle G (2010) Spatial and temporal variability of flood seasonality in Wales. Hydrol Process 24(13):1806–1820
Maghrebi MF, Ahmadi A (2016) Stage-discharge prediction in natural rivers using an innovative approach. J Hydrol 545:172–181
Magilligan FJ, Graber BE (1996) Hydroclimatological and geomorphic controls on the timing and spatial variability of floods in New England, USA. J Hydrol 178(1–4):159–180
Magnotti JF, Billor N (2014) Finding multivariate outliers in fMRI time-series data. Comput Biol Med 53(1):115–124
Ministry of Water Resources (MWR) (1993) Regulation for calculating design flood of water resources and hydropower projects. Chinese Shuili Shuidian Press, Beijing (in Chinese)
Mu H-Q, Yuen K-V (2015) Novel outlier-resistant extended Kalman filter for robust online structural identification. J Eng Mech 141(1):04014100
Nunez J, Hallack-Alegria M, Cadena M (2016) Resolving regional frequency analysis of precipitation at large and complex scales using a bottom-up approach: the Latin America and the Caribbean Drought Atlas. J Hydrol 538:515–538
Nurunnabi A, West G, Belton D (2015) Outlier detection and robust normal-curvature estimation in mobile laser scanning 3D point cloud data. Pattern Recogn 48(4):1404–1419
Ouarda TBMJ, Ashkar F, El-Jabi N (1993) Peaks over threshold model for seasonal flood variations. In: Engineering hydrology: proceedings international symposium, pp 341–346
Ouarda TBMJ, Cunderlik JM, St-Hilaire A, Barbet M, Bruneau P, Bobée B (2006) Data-based comparison of seasonality-based regional flood frequency methods. J Hydrol 330(1–2):329–339
Peña D, Prieto F (2001) Multivariate outlier detection and robust covariance matrix estimation. Technometrics 43(3):286–310
Reitan T, Petersen-Øverleir A (2009) Bayesian methods for estimating multi-segment discharge rating curves. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 23(5):627–642
Ro K, Zou C, Wang Z, Yin G (2015) Outlier detection for high-dimensional data. Biometrika 102(3):589–599
Rousseeuw PJ (1985) Multivariate estimation with high breakdown point. J Math Anal Appl 8:283–297
Rousseeuw PJ, Croux C (1993) Alternatives to the median absolute deviation. J Am Stat Assoc 88(424):1273–1283
Sguera C, Galeano P, Lillo RE (2016) Functional outlier detection by a local depth with application to NO (x) levels. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 30(4):1115–1130
Singh VP, Wang SX, Zhang L (2005) Frequency analysis of nonidentically distributed hydrologic flood data. J Hydrol 307:175–195
Stout K (1985) Location and scatter quality control in automation. Springer, New York, pp 33–41
Strupczewski WG, Kochanek K, Weglarczyk S, Singh VP (2010) On robustness of large quantile estimates to largest elements of the observation series. Hydrol Process 21(10):1328–1344
Villarini G (2016) On the seasonality of flooding across the continental United States. Adv Water Resour 87:80–91
Ye T, Nie J, Wang J, Shi P, Wang Z (2015) Performance of detrending models of crop yield risk assessment: evaluation on real and hypothetical yield data. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 29(1):109–117
Zekri H, Mokhtari AR, Cohen DR (2016) Application of singular value decomposition (SVD) and semi-discrete decomposition (SDD) techniques in clustering of geochemical data: an environmental study in central Iran. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 30(7):1947–1960
Zhou Y, Guo S, Xu C-Y, Liu P, Qin H (2015) Deriving joint optimal refill rules for cascade reservoirs with multi-objective evaluation. J Hydrol 524:166–181
Acknowledgements
This study was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program (2016YFC0400907), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51579180) and Excellent Young Scientist Foundation of the NSFC (51422907). The authors would like to thank the editor and the anonymous reviewers for their comments that helped improve the quality of the paper.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Pan, Z., Liu, P., Gao, S. et al. Evaluation of flood season segmentation using seasonal exceedance probability measurement after outlier identification in the Three Gorges Reservoir. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 32, 1573–1586 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-018-1522-4
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-018-1522-4