Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Evaluating lava flow propagation models with a case study from the 2018 eruption of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai'i

  • Research Article
  • Published:
Bulletin of Volcanology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The 2018 lower East Rift Zone (LERZ) eruption of Kīlauea, Hawai’i, provides an excellent natural laboratory with which to test models of lava flow propagation. During early stages of eruption crises, the most useful lava flow propagation equations utilize readily determined parameters and require fewer a priori assumptions about future behavior of the flow. Here, we leverage the numerous observations of lava flows collected over the duration of the eruption crisis at Kīlauea in 2018 to test simple lava flow propagation models. These models track the one-dimensional propagation of the flows according to three main rheological restraining forces: bulk viscosity, yield strength, and growth of a surface crust. We calculate the predicted changes in length through time of three flows that vary in bulk composition, crystal content, and total flow length. Cooler flows that are more crystal-rich tend to be more dominated by crust growth, though early stages of propagation can be controlled by bulk viscosity. We find that variations in effusion rate significantly impact flows that are short-lived; flows that are produced during steady-state effusion are readily approximated by average values for the entire flow. Thus, accurate knowledge of variations in effusion rate are critical to accurate lava flow propagation forecasting.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Anderson KR, Poland MP (2016) Bayesian estimation of magma supply, storage, and eruption rates using a multiphysical volcano model: Kīlauea Volcano, 2000–2012. Earth Planet Sci Lett 447:161–171

    Google Scholar 

  • Anderson KR, Johanson IA, Patrick MR, Gu M, Segall P, Poland MP, Miklius A (2019) Magma reservoir failure and the onset of caldera collapse at Kīlauea Volcano in 2018. Science 366(6470):eaaz1822

  • Beattie P (1993) Olivine-melt and orthopyroxene-melt equilibria. Contrib Miner Petrol 115(1):103–111

    Google Scholar 

  • Biren J, Harris A, Tuffen H, Chevrel MO, Gurioli L, Vlastélic I, Schiavi F, Benbakkar M, Fonquernie C, Calabro L (2020) Chemical, Textural and Thermal Analyses of Local Interactions Between Lava Flow and a Tree-Case Study From Pāhoa. Hawai’i. Front Earth Sci 8:233

    Google Scholar 

  • Bonny E, Wright R (2017) Predicting the end of lava flow-forming eruptions from space. Bull Volcanol 79(7):52

    Google Scholar 

  • Cashman KV, Kerr RC, Griffiths RW (2006) A laboratory model of surface crust formation and disruption on lava flows through non-uniform channels. Bull Volcanol 68(7–8):753–770

    Google Scholar 

  • Castruccio A, Rust AC, Sparks RSJ (2013) Evolution of crust-and core-dominated lava flows using scaling analysis. Bull Volcanol 75(1):681

    Google Scholar 

  • Chevrel MO, Harris A, Ajas A, Biren J, Gurioli L, Calabrò L (2019) Investigating physical and thermal interactions between lava and trees: the case of Kīlauea’s July 1974 flow. Bull Volcanol 81(2):6

    Google Scholar 

  • Cimarelli C, Costa A, Mueller S, Mader HM (2011) Rheology of magmas with bimodal crystal size and shape distributions: insights from analog experiments. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 12:Q07024

  • Costa A, Caricchi L, Bagdassarov N (2009) A model for the rheology of particle‐bearing suspensions and partially molten rocks. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 10:Q03010

  • De Beni E, Cantarero M, Messina A (2019) UAVs for volcano monitoring: a new approach applied on an active lava flow on Mt. Etna (Italy), during the 27 February–02 March 2017 eruption. J Volcanol Geoth Res 369:250–262

    Google Scholar 

  • DeSmither LG, Diefenbach AK, Dietterich HR (2021) Unoccupied Aircraft Systems (UAS) video of the 2018 lower East Rift Zone eruption of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaii. U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9BVENTG

  • Dietterich HR, Cashman KV (2014) Channel networks within lava flows: formation, evolution, and implications for flow behavior. J Geophys Res Earth Surf 119(8):1704–1724

    Google Scholar 

  • Dietterich HR, Cashman KV, Rust AC, Lev E (2015) Diverting lava flows in the lab. Nat Geosci 8(7):494–496

    Google Scholar 

  • Dietterich HR, Lev E, Chen J, Richardson JA, Cashman KV (2017) Benchmarking computational fluid dynamics models of lava flow simulation for hazard assessment, forecasting, and risk management. J Appl Volcanol 6(1):9

    Google Scholar 

  • Dietterich HR, Diefenbach AK, Soule SA, Zoeller MH, Patrick MP, Major JJ, Lundgren PR (2021) Lava effusion rate evolution and erupted volume during the 2018 Kīlauea lower East Rift Zone eruption. Bull Volcanol 83(4):1–18

    Google Scholar 

  • Dragoni M (1989) A dynamical model of lava flows cooling by radiation. Bull Volcanol 51(2):88–95

    Google Scholar 

  • Favalli M, Pareschi MT, Neri A, Isola I (2005) Forecasting lava flow paths by a stochastic approach. Geophys Res Lett 32:L03305

  • Ferguson DJ, Gonnermann HM, Ruprecht P, Plank T, Hauri EH, Houghton BF, Swanson DA (2016) Magma decompression rates during explosive eruptions of Kīlauea volcano, Hawaii, recorded by melt embayments. Bull Volcanol 78(10):71

    Google Scholar 

  • Fink JH, Griffiths RW (1992) A laboratory analog study of the surface morphology of lava flows extruded from point and line sources. J Volcanol Geoth Res 54(1–2):19–32

    Google Scholar 

  • Fink JH, Zimbelman J (1990) Longitudinal variations in rheological properties of lavas: Puu Oo basalt flows, Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii. In Lava Flows and Domes. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, pp 157–173

    Google Scholar 

  • Gansecki C, Lee RL, Shea T, Lundblad SP, Hon K, Parcheta C (2019) The tangled tale of Kīlauea’s 2018 eruption as told by geochemical monitoring. Science 366(6470):eaaz0147

  • Giordano D, Russell JK, Dingwell DB (2008) Viscosity of magmatic liquids: a model. Earth Planet Sci Lett 271(1–4):123–134

    Google Scholar 

  • Gonnermann HM, Manga M (2007) The fluid mechanics inside a volcano. Annu Rev Fluid Mech 39:321–356

    Google Scholar 

  • Griffiths RW (2000) The dynamics of lava flows. Annu Rev Fluid Mech 32(1):477–518

    Google Scholar 

  • Guest JE, Kilburn CRJ, Pinkerton H, Duncan AM (1987) The evolution of lava flow-fields: observations of the 1981 and 1983 eruptions of Mount Etna Sicily. Bulletin of Volcanology 49(3):527–540

    Google Scholar 

  • Hamilton CW, Glaze LS, James MR, Baloga SM (2013) Topographic and stochastic influences on pāhoehoe lava lobe emplacement. Bull Volcanol 75(11):756

    Google Scholar 

  • Hammer JE, Cashman KV, Hoblitt RP, Newman S (1999) Degassing and microlite crystallization during pre-climactic events of the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, Philippines. Bulletin of Volcanology 60(5):355–380

    Google Scholar 

  • Harris AJL, Murray JB, Aries SE, Davies MA, Flynn LP, Wooster MJ, Rothery DA (2000) Effusion rate trends at Etna and Krafla and their implications for eruptive mechanisms. J Volcanol Geoth Res 102(3–4):237–269

    Google Scholar 

  • Harris AJ, Dehn J, Calvari S (2007) Lava effusion rate definition and measurement: a review. Bull Volcanol 70(1):1

    Google Scholar 

  • Harris AJ, Rowland SK (2015) FLOWGO 2012: an updated framework for thermorheological simulations of channel-contained lava. Hawaiian Volcanoes: from Source to Surface, Geophysical Monograph Series 208:457–481

    Google Scholar 

  • Harris AJL, Carn S, Dehn J, Del Negro C, Guđmundsson MT, Cordonnier B, Zakšek K (2016) Conclusion: recommendations and findings of the RED SEED working group. Geological Society, London, Special Publications 426(1):567–648

    Google Scholar 

  • Houghton BF, Tisdale CM, Llewellin EW, Taddeucci J, Orr TR, Walker BH, Patrick MR (2021a) The birth of a Hawaiian fissure eruption. Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth 126:e2020JB020903. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JB020903

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Houghton BF, Cockshell WA, Gregg CE, Walker BH, Kim K, Tisdale CM, Yamashita E (2021b) Land, lava, and disaster create a social dilemma after the 2018 eruption of Kīlauea volcano. Nat Commun 12(1):1–4

    Google Scholar 

  • Huppert HE (1982a) Flow and instability of a viscous current down a slope. Nature 300(5891):427–429

    Google Scholar 

  • Huppert HE (1982b) The propagation of two-dimensional and axisymmetric viscous gravity currents over a rigid horizontal surface. J Fluid Mech 121:43–58

    Google Scholar 

  • HVO Staff (2018). Kīlauea Volcano – 2018 Summit and Lower East Rift Zone (LERZ), Brief Overview of Events April 17 to October 5, 2018. https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/file_mngr/file-179/Chronology%20of%20events%202018.pdf. Accessed 14 April 2021

  • Iacovino K, Till CB (2019) DensityX: A program for calculating the densities of magmatic liquids up to 1,627 C and 30 kbar. Volcanica 2(1):1–10

    Google Scholar 

  • James MR, Carr B, D’Arcy F, Diefenbach A, Dietterich H, Fornaciai A, Smets B (2020) Volcanological applications of unoccupied aircraft systems (UAS): developments, strategies, and future challenges. Volcanica 3(1):67–114

    Google Scholar 

  • Jones TJ, Llewellin EW (2021) Convective tipping point initiates localization of basaltic fissure eruptions. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 553:116637

    Google Scholar 

  • Kerr RC, Griffiths RW, Cashman KV (2006) Formation of channelized lava flows on an unconfined slope. J Geophys Res: Solid Earth 111:B10206

  • Kerr RC, Lyman AW (2007) Importance of surface crust strength during the flow of the 1988–1990 andesite lava of Lonquimay Volcano, Chile. J Geophys Res: Solid Earth 112:B03209

  • Lev E, Rumpf E, Dietterich H (2019) Analog experiments of lava flow emplacement. Ann Geophys 62(2):VO225

  • Lister JR (1992) Viscous flows down an inclined plane from point and line sources. J Fluid Mech 242:631–653

    Google Scholar 

  • Lyman AW, Kerr RC (2006) Effect of surface solidification on the emplacement of lava flows on a slope. J Geophys Res: Solid Earth 111:B05206

  • Mader HM, Llewellin EW, Mueller SP (2013) The rheology of two-phase magmas: a review and analysis. J Volcanol Geoth Res 257:135–158

    Google Scholar 

  • Magnall N, James MR, Tuffen H, Vye-Brown C (2017) Emplacing a cooling-limited rhyolite lava flow: similarities with basaltic lava flows. Front Earth Sci 5:44

    Google Scholar 

  • Manga M, Castro J, Cashman KV, Loewenberg M (1998) Rheology of bubble-bearing magmas. J Volcanol Geoth Res 87(1–4):15–28

    Google Scholar 

  • Muir DD, Blundy JD, Rust AC (2012) Multiphase petrography of volcanic rocks using element maps: a method applied to Mount St. Helens, 1980–2005. Bulletin of Volcanology 74(5):1101–1120

    Google Scholar 

  • Neal CA, Brantley SR, Antolik L, Babb JL, Burgess M, Calles K, Dotray P (2019) The 2018 rift eruption and summit collapse of Kīlauea Volcano. Science 363(6425):367–374

    Google Scholar 

  • Patrick MR, Houghton BF, Anderson KR, Poland MP, Montgomery-Brown E, Johanson I, Elias T (2020) The cascading origin of the 2018 Kīlauea eruption and implications for future forecasting. Nat Commun 11(1):1–13

    Google Scholar 

  • Patrick MR, Dietterich HR, Lyons JJ, Diefenbach AK, Parcheta C, Anderson KR, Kauahikaua JP (2019) Cyclic lava effusion during the 2018 eruption of Kīlauea Volcano. Science 366(6470):eaay9070

  • Patrick M, Orr T, Fisher G, Trusdell F, Kauahikaua J (2017) Thermal mapping of a pāhoehoe lava flow, Kīlauea Volcano. J Volcanol Geoth Res 332:71–87

    Google Scholar 

  • Pinkerton H, Stevenson RJ (1992) Methods of determining the rheological properties of magmas at sub-liquidus temperatures. J Volcanol Geoth Res 53(1–4):47–66

    Google Scholar 

  • Plank S, Massimetti F, Soldati A, Hess KU, Nolde M, Martinis S, Dingwell DB (2021) Estimates of lava discharge rate of 2018 Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaiʻi eruption using multi-sensor satellite and laboratory measurements. Int J Remote Sens 42(4):1492–1511

    Google Scholar 

  • Richardson P, Karlstrom L (2019) The multi-scale influence of topography on lava flow morphology. Bull Volcanol 81(4):1–17

    Google Scholar 

  • Robert B, Harris A, Gurioli L, Médard E, Sehlke A, Whittington A (2014) Textural and rheological evolution of basalt flowing down a lava channel. Bull Volcanol 76(6):824

    Google Scholar 

  • Roman DC, Soldati A, Dingwell DB, Houghton BF, Shiro BR (2021) Earthquakes indicated magma viscosity during Kīlauea’s 2018 eruption. Nature 592:237–241

    Google Scholar 

  • Rowland SK, Walker GP (1990) Pahoehoe and aa in Hawaii: volumetric flow rate controls the lava structure. Bull Volcanol 52(8):615–628

    Google Scholar 

  • Rumpf ME, Lev E, Wysocki R (2018) The influence of topographic roughness on lava flow emplacement. Bull Volcanol 80(7):63

    Google Scholar 

  • Rust AC, Manga M (2002) Effects of bubble deformation on the viscosity of dilute suspensions. J Nonnewton Fluid Mech 104(1):53–63

    Google Scholar 

  • Seaman C, Sherman SB, Garcia MO, Baker MB, Balta B, Stolper E (2004) Volatiles in glasses from the HSDP2 drill core. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 5:Q09G16

  • Shea T, Houghton BF, Gurioli L, Cashman KV, Hammer JE, Hobden BJ (2010) Textural studies of vesicles in volcanic rocks: an integrated methodology. J Volcanol Geoth Res 190(3–4):271–289

    Google Scholar 

  • Soldati A, Farrell JA, Sant C, Wysocki R, Karson JA (2020) The effect of bubbles on the rheology of basaltic lava flows: insights from large-scale two-phase experiments. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 548:116504

    Google Scholar 

  • Soldati A, Houghton BF, Dingwell DB (2021) A lower bound on the rheological evolution of magmatic liquids during the 2018 Kilauea eruption. Chemical Geology 576:120272

    Google Scholar 

  • Takagi D, Huppert HE (2010) Initial advance of long lava flows in open channels. J Volcanol Geoth Res 195(2–4):121–126

    Google Scholar 

  • Tarquini S, de’ MichieliVitturi M (2014) Influence of fluctuating supply on the emplacement dynamics of channelized lava flows. Bull Volcanol 76(3):1–13

    Google Scholar 

  • Turner NR, Perroy RL, Hon K (2017) Lava flow hazard prediction and monitoring with UAS: a case study from the 2014–2015 Pāhoa lava flow crisis Hawai ’i. J Appl Volcanol 6(1):1–11

    Google Scholar 

  • Wadge G (1981) The variation of magma discharge during basaltic eruptions. J Volcanol Geoth Res 11(2–4):139–168

    Google Scholar 

  • Walker GPL, Huntingdon AT, Sanders AT, Dinsdale JL (1973) Lengths of lava flows. Philos Trans Royal Soc Lond Ser A Math Phys Sci 274(1238):107–118

    Google Scholar 

  • Williams RS, Moore JG (1983) Man against volcano: the eruption on Heimaey, Vestmannaeyjar, Iceland. US Geological Survey General Interest Publication 1–27

  • Zoeller MH, Patrick MR, Neal CA (2018) Crisis remote sensing during the 2018 lower East Rift Zone eruption of Kīlauea Volcano. Photogramm Eng Remote Sens 84(12):749–751

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank B. Omori for providing imagery of the eruption, and the HVO staff and eruption response team for providing eruption imagery and samples. We thank Ormat Technologies, Inc., for the use of their pre-eruption lidar DEM in our estimation of F17 flow thickness. This manuscript was improved by QGIS assistance from S. Rowland, image processing assistance from A. Marshall, and discussions with J. Allen and B. Houghton. Thoughtful reviews from E. Lev, M.E. Rumpf, and an anonymous reviewer greatly refined the ideas in this manuscript. We also thank G. Waite for swift editorial handling. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. This is SOEST contribution #11395.

Funding

This study was funded by the Donald Swanson Graduate Research Fellowship, administered by the University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, awarded to R.D., and National Science Foundation RAPID award #1838502 to J.H. and T.S. Instrumentation used to collect data was purchased via National Science Foundation awards #1839095 and #1828799 to R.P.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Earth Sciences, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, USA

    R. deGraffenried, J. Hammer & T. Shea

  2. Alaska Volcano Observatory, US Geological Survey, Anchorage, AK, USA

    H. Dietterich

  3. Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Hawai’i at Hilo, Hilo, HI, USA

    R. Perroy

  4. Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, US Geological Survey, Hilo, HI, USA

    M. Patrick

Authors
  1. R. deGraffenried
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. J. Hammer
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. H. Dietterich
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. R. Perroy
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. M. Patrick
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. T. Shea
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to R. deGraffenried.

Additional information

Editorial responsibility: G.P. Waite

This paper constitutes part of a topical collection:

The historic events at Kilauea Volcano in 2018: summit collapse, rift zone eruption, and Mw6.9 earthquake

Supplementary Information

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary file1 (DOCX 4724 KB)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

deGraffenried, R., Hammer, J., Dietterich, H. et al. Evaluating lava flow propagation models with a case study from the 2018 eruption of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai'i. Bull Volcanol 83, 65 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-021-01492-x

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-021-01492-x

Keywords

Search

Navigation