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Estimating eruptive parameters and related uncertainties for pyroclastic density currents deposits: worked examples from Somma-Vesuvius (Italy)

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Abstract

The quantification of the maximum runout, invaded area, volume, and total grain-size distribution (TGSD) of pyroclastic density currents (PDC) is a critically important task because such parameters represent the needed necessary input quantities for physical modeling and hazard assessment of PDCs. In this work, new and well-established methods for the quantification of these parameters are applied to a large stratigraphic dataset of three PDC units from two eruptions of Somma-Vesuvius (the AD 79 Pompeii and the AD 472 Pollena eruptions), representative of a large spectrum of transport and depositional processes. Maximum runout and invaded area are defined on the basis of the available volcanological and topographical constraints. The related uncertainties are evaluated with an expert judgment procedure, which considersed the different sectors of the volcano separately. Quite large uncertainty estimates of dispersal area (20–40%) may have important implications in terms of hazard assessment. The testing of different methods for estimating the volume (and mass) of a PDC deposit suggests that integration, over the invaded area, of thickness (and deposit density) data using the triangulated irregular network method can minimize and localize data extrapolation. Such calculations, however, bear an intrinsic additional uncertainty (at least 10% of the total PDC deposit) related to loss or new formation of fine material during transport (at least 10% of the total PDC deposit). Different interpolation methods for TGSD produce multimodal distributions, likely reflecting the different response of each grain size class to transport and deposition processes. These data, when integrated with information on the related co-ignimbrite deposits, can give a more accurate picture of the pyroclastic mixture feeding the current.

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Acknowledgments

Marina Bisson is acknowledged for several useful discussions during the development of the manuscript, which greatly improved its quality. This paper was greatly improved by the detailed and insightful comments of Greg Valentine and Paul Cole. We also thank the editorial handling of Richard J. Brown.

Availability of data and material

The Online Resources presented in this study could be found also in a repository in the Figshare community with the following DOI: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.12506027.

Funding

This work has been partially supported by the project V1 “Stima della pericolosità vulcanica in termini probabilistici” funded by Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (Italy). The manuscript does not necessarily represent official views and policies of the Dipartimento della Protezione Civile.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università di Firenze, Via G. La Pira, 4, 50121, Florence, Italy

    Raffaello Cioni & Alessandro Tadini

  2. Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Ist. di Geoscienze e Georisorse, SS Firenze, Via G. La Pira, 4, 50121, Florence, Italy

    Raffaello Cioni

  3. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Via Cesare Battisti, 53, 56125, Pisa, Italy

    Alessandro Tadini, Antonella Bertagnini, Andrea Bevilacqua & Augusto Neri

  4. Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, Univeristé Clermont Auvergne, CNRS, IRD, OPGC, Campus Universitaire des Cézeaux 6 Avenue Blaise Pascal TSA 60026, CS 60026, 63178, Aubiere Cedex, France

    Alessandro Tadini & Lucia Gurioli

  5. Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral, ESPOL, Facultad de Ingeniería en Ciencias de la Tierra, Campus Gustavo Galindo Km 30.5 Vía Perimetral, P.O. Box 09-01-5863, Guayaquil, Ecuador

    Maurizio Mulas

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  1. Raffaello Cioni
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  2. Alessandro Tadini
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Cioni, R., Tadini, A., Gurioli, L. et al. Estimating eruptive parameters and related uncertainties for pyroclastic density currents deposits: worked examples from Somma-Vesuvius (Italy). Bull Volcanol 82, 65 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-020-01402-7

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