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Environmental effects and individual body condition drive seasonal fecundity of rabbits: identifying acute and lagged processes

  • Population ecology – original research
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Abstract

The reproduction of many species is determined by seasonally-driven resource supply. But it is difficult to quantify whether the fecundity is sensitive to short- or long-term exposure to environmental conditions such as rainfall that drive resource supply. Using 25 years of data on individual fecundity of European female rabbits, Oryctolagus cuniculus, from semiarid Australia, we investigate the role of individual body condition, rainfall and temperature as drivers of seasonal and long-term and population-level changes in fecundity (breeding probability, ovulation rate, embryo survival). We built distributed lag models in a hierarchical Bayesian framework to account for both immediate and time-lagged effects of climate and other environmental drivers, and possible shifts in reproduction over consecutive seasons. We show that rainfall during summer, when rabbits typically breed only rarely, increased breeding probability immediately and with time lags of up to 10 weeks. However, an earlier onset of the yearly breeding period did not result in more overall reproductive output. Better body condition was associated with an earlier onset of breeding and higher embryo survival. Breeding probability in the main breeding season declined with increased breeding activity in the preceding season and only individuals in good body condition were able to breed late in the season. Higher temperatures reduce breeding success across seasons. We conclude that a better understanding of seasonal dynamics and plasticity (and their interplay) in reproduction will provide crucial insights into how lagomorphs are likely to respond and potentially adapt to the influence of future climate and other environmental change.

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Acknowledgments

We thank D. Chinner, B. Sutton, F. Anderson and F. Bartholomaeus for technical assistance in the field and laboratory; and R. Sinclair, D. Peacock, E. Roy-Dufresne, M. Lurgi and A. Jones for various discussions. Comments from N. Yoccoz and an anonymous reviewer helped to improve an earlier draft of the paper. Australian Research Council Grants (LP12020024, FT140101192) supported K.W. and D.A.F. The Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre funded R.B.O’H. through the Landesoffensive zur Entwicklung wissenschaftlich-ökonomischer Exzellenz.

Author contribution statement

BC conceived and designed the field experiments. KW, RBO’H, TAAP, DAF performed the analysis. All authors contributed to writing the manuscript.

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  1. Konstans Wells

    Present address: Environmental Futures Research Institute, Griffith University, Brisbane, QLD, 4111, Australia

Authors and Affiliations

  1. The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, 5005, Australia

    Konstans Wells, Thomas A. A. Prowse & Damien A. Fordham

  2. Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BIK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    Robert B. O’Hara

  3. Invasive Animals Cooperative Research Centre and Institute of Applied Ecology, University of Canberra, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia

    Brian D. Cooke

  4. Department of Primary Industries and Regions, Biosecurity SA, Adelaide, SA, 5001, Australia

    Greg J. Mutze

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  1. Konstans Wells
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Correspondence to Konstans Wells.

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Communicated by Janne Sundell.

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Wells, K., O’Hara, R.B., Cooke, B.D. et al. Environmental effects and individual body condition drive seasonal fecundity of rabbits: identifying acute and lagged processes. Oecologia 181, 853–864 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-016-3617-2

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