Abstract
The aim of this study is to develop a new formula for age estimation in a longitudinal study of a sample from the radiological collection of wrist bones of growing infants, children, and adolescents recorded at the Burlington Growth Centre. A sample of 82 individuals (43 boys and 39 girls), aged between 3 and 16 years, were analyzed with a total of 623 X-rays of left hand-wrist bones by measuring the area of carpal bones and epiphyses of the ulna and radius (Bo) and carpal area (Ca). The intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) and its 95% confidence interval were used to evaluate intra-observer agreement. Hierarchical Bayesian calibration has been adopted to exceed the bias deriving from the classical regression approach used for age estimation in forensic disciplines, since it tends to overestimate or underestimate the age of the individuals. Calibration distributions of the dataset obtained by the evaluation of BoCa (the ratio of Bo and Ca) suggested mean absolute errors (MAE) of 1.07 and 1.34 years in boys and girls, respectively. The mean interquartile range (MIQR) was 1.7 and 2.42 years in boys and girls, respectively. The respective bias of the estimates was βERR = − 0.025 and − 0.074. Furthermore, a correspondence between different BoCa values and estimated age with its standard deviation (SD) was calculated for boys and girls, respectively. In conclusion, the Bayesian calibration method appears to be suitable for assessing both age and its distribution in subadults, according to hand-wrist maturity. Furthermore, it can easily incorporate other age predictors, obtaining a distribution of the subjects with multivariate predictors.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Todd WT (1937) Atlas of skeletal maturity. The C.V. Mosby Company, St Louis
Simmons K (1944) The Brush Foundation study of child growth and development: II. Physical growth and development. Monogr Soc Res Child Dev 9:i
Johnston FE, Jahina SB (1965) The contribution of the carpal bones to the assessment of skeletal age. Am J Phys Anthr 23:349–354
Fan BC, Hsieh CW, Jong TL, Tiu CM (2001) Automatic bone age estimation based on carpal-bone image—a preliminary report. Chin Med J 64:203–208
Gertych A, Zhang A, Sayre J, Pospiech-Kurkowska S, Huang HK (2007) Bone age assessment of children using a digital hand atlas. Comput Med Imaging Graph 31:322–331
Gilsanz V, Ratib O (2005) Hand bone age: a digital atlas of skeletal maturity. Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg
Mahmoodi S, Sharif BS, Chester EG, Owen JP, Lee R (2000) Skeletal growth estimation using radiographic image processing and analysis. IEEE Trans Inf Technol Biomed 4:292–297
Pietka E (1995) Computer assisted bone age assessment based on features automatically extracted from a hand radiograph. Comput Med Imaging Graph 19:251–259
Pietka E, Gertych A, Pospiech S, Fei C, Huang HK, Gilsanz V (2002) Computer-assisted bone age assessment: image preprocessing and epiphyseal/metaphyseal ROI extraction. IEEE Trans Med Imaging 20:715–729
Greulich WW, Pyle SI (1959) Radiographic atlas of skeletal development of the hand and wrist, 2nd edn. Stanford University Press, Stanford
Bull RK, Edwards PD, Kemp PM, Fry S, Hughes IA (1999) Bone age assessment: a large scale comparison of the Greulich and Pyle, and Tanner and Whitehouse (TW2) methods. Arch Dis Child 81:172–173
Frisch H, Riedl S, Waldhör T (1996) Computer aided estimation of skeletal age and comparison with bone age evaluations by the method of Greulich-Pyle and Tanner-Whitehouse. Pediatr Radiol 26(3):226–231
Milner GR, Levick RK, Kay R (1986) Assessment of bone age: a comparison of the Greulich and Pyle, and the Tanner and Whitehouse methods. Clin Radiol 37(2):119–121
Tanner JM, Whitehouse RH, Cameron N, Marshall WA, Healy MJ, Goldstein H (1983) Assessment of skeletal maturity and prediction of adult height (TW2 method). Academic Press, London
Tanner JM, Healy MJR, Goldstein H, Cameron N (2001) Assessment of skeletal maturity and prediction of adult height (TW3 method). WD Saunders, London
Roche AF, Cameron Chumlea W, Thissen D (1988) Assessing the skeletal maturity of the hand-wrist: FELS method. Charles C. Thomas, Springfield
Cameron Chumela WM, Roche AF, Thissen D (1989) The FELS method of assessing the skeletal maturity of the hand-wrist. Am J Hum Biol 1(2):175–183
Cameriere R, Ferrante L, Mirtella D, Cingolani M (2006) Carpals and epiphyses of radius and ulna as age indicators. Int J Legal Med 120:143–146
De Luca S, Mangiulli T, Merelli V, Conforti F, Velandia Palacio LA, Agostini S, Spinas E, Cameriere R (2016) A new formula for assessing skeletal age in growing infants and children by measuring carpals and epiphyses of radio and ulna. J Forensic Legal Med 39:109–116
Ferrante L, Skrami E, Gesuita R, Cameriere R (2015) Bayesian calibration for forensic age estimation. Stat Med 34(10):1779–1790
AlQahtani SJ, Hector MP, Liversidge HM (2010) Brief communication: the London atlas of human tooth development and eruption. Am J Phys Anthropol 142(3):481–490
Willems G, Van Olmen A, Spiessens B, Carels C (2001) Dental age estimation in Belgian children: Demirjian’s technique revisited. J Forensic Sci 46(4):893–895
Galić I, Pacifici A, Carbone D, Pacifici L, Jerončić A, Cameriere R (2017) Age estimation by the Cameriere’s normalized measurements (CNM) of the single permanent mandibular tooth on a panoramic radiograph. Legal Med 26:65–72
Tisè M, Mazzarini L, Fabrizzi G, Ferrante L, Giorgetti R, Tagliabracci A (2011) Applicability of Greulich and Pyle method for age assessment in forensic practice on an Italian sample. Int J Legal Med 125:411–416
Pinchi V, De Luca F, Ricciardi F, Focardi M, Piredda V, Mazzeo E, Norelli GA (2014) Skeletal age estimation for forensic purposes: a comparison of GP, TW2 and TW3 methods on an Italian sample. Forensic Sci Int 238:83–90
O'Connor JE, Coyle J, Bogue C, Spence LD, Last J (2014) Age prediction formulae from radiographic assessment of skeletal maturation at the knee in an Irish population. Forensic Sci Int 234:188.e1–188.e8
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Cameriere, R., Bestetti, F., Velandia Palacio, L.A. et al. Carpals and epiphyses of radius and ulna as age indicators using longitudinal data: a Bayesian approach. Int J Legal Med 133, 197–204 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00414-018-1807-7
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00414-018-1807-7