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Projected changes of compound droughts and heatwaves in China under 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming

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Abstract

Compound drought and heatwave (CDH) events have become increasingly frequent and severe under global warming, with negative impacts on agriculture, ecology, and society. We quantified the changes of CDH events with different magnitudes (severities) across China at global warming thresholds of 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C based on 12 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model simulations. The results indicated that mild, moderate, severe, and extreme CDH events can increase significantly from 1.5 °C to 3.0 °C of global warming. The frequencies and magnitudes of CDH events during 3 °C warming period are 323.7% and 130.2% higher than those of 1.5 °C warming period. The area impacted by CDH events has expanded, with the increase during 3 °C warming period being nearly threefold that of 1.5 °C warming period. Moreover, the first CDH event will start earlier in a year, while the last event will take place later. This pattern of earlier or later onset is particularly notable with increasing temperatures, especially in northwestern parts of China (NWC). In NWC, the first or last CDH event will occur 2 months earlier or later during 3 °C warming period compared to historical period. The findings highlight the possible implications of global warming at different levels on CDH events in China and the urgency of taking effective measures to mitigate the impacts.

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Data availability

The CMIP6 model data is obtained from https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/. The CN05.1 gridded dataset can be downloaded after contacting Dr. Wang (wangjun@mail.iap.ac.cn).

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Funding

This study is jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41807170, 41907384, and 42365010) and the Humanities and Social Science Fund of Ministry of Education of China (19YJCZH259).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Geodesy and Geomatics, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao, 266590, China

    Taizheng Liu, Bin Guo & Yu Yin

  2. School of Geography and Planning, Huaiyin Normal University, Huai’an, 223300, China

    Yuqing Zhang

  3. School of Agriculture, Ningxia University, Yinchuan, 750021, China

    Jing Ge

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  1. Taizheng Liu
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  2. Yuqing Zhang
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  4. Yu Yin
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Contributions

Taizheng Liu, Yuqing Zhang, and Bin Guo contributed to the study conception and design. Data collection and analysis were performed by Taizheng Liu, Yuqing Zhang, and Yu Yin. Taizheng Liu prepared the first draft of the manuscript. Yuqing Zhang and Bin Guo reviewed and edited the manuscript. Jing Ge provided constructive comments on this study.

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Correspondence to Bin Guo.

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Liu, T., Zhang, Y., Guo, B. et al. Projected changes of compound droughts and heatwaves in China under 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming. Clim Dyn (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07215-0

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