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The co-variability of SST and vertical wind shear on the variability of tropical cyclone intensity change in the Northern Hemisphere

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A Correction to this article was published on 25 January 2024

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Abstract

The impact of the co-variability of sea surface temperature (SST) and vertical wind shear (VWS) on the variability of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change (ΔV, defined as 24-h intensity change) in the northern hemisphere (NH) is discussed from both interannual and long-term time scales based on the maximum covariance analysis (MCA) and trend analysis, respectively. It is found that the coupling feature in the co-variability of SST and VWS clearly modulates the relationship between the regional variability of TC intensity change and that of SST and VWS. From an interannual time scale, the variability of TC ΔV and intensification rate (IR, ΔV for records with ΔV > 0) is highly correlated with the co-variability of SST and VWS in regions where SST and VWS move together in a direction that favors (inhibits) TC development, while the relationship involves greater uncertainty in regions where SST and VWS move in an opposite direction in affecting TC intensity change. From a long-term aspect, the coupling feature of SST and VWS trends also show modulation on regional differences in ΔV and IR trends. Specifically, although the ΔV and IR of NH TCs are expected to increase under global warming, their trends are obviously more pronounced for TCs in areas where warming SST trends are accompanied by decreasing VWS trends. Our findings highlight the importance of considering the co-variability of SST and VWS in interpreting the climate variability of TC intensity change.

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Data availability

The IBTrACs dataset can be found at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ibtracs/. The ERA-5 reanalysis data can be found at https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-pressure-levels-monthly-means?tab=overview. The Met-Office Hadley Centre SST (HadISST) is available at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/data/download.html.

Change history

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Acknowledgments

We thank all the reviewers for their valuable suggestions.

Funding

This research was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42375012, 42192555).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, Nanjing, China

    Xi Guo

  2. Space Science and Engineering Center, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA

    Xi Guo & James P. Kossin

  3. Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/MOE, and School of the Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China

    Zhe-Min Tan

  4. Key laboratory of Transportation Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Nanjing, China

    Xi Guo

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  1. Xi Guo
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  2. James P. Kossin
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Xi. Guo performed the data analyses and wrote the main manuscript, J. Kossin and Z.-M. Tan contributed to the conception of the study and reviewed and edited the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Xi Guo.

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The original online version of this article was revised: " In this article the affiliation details for Author Xi Guo and Zhe-Min Tan has been swapped.

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Guo, X., Kossin, J.P. & Tan, ZM. The co-variability of SST and vertical wind shear on the variability of tropical cyclone intensity change in the Northern Hemisphere. Clim Dyn 62, 2581–2594 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-07049-2

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