Abstract
During the pre-monsoon season, the Northwest Himalayas region receives a significantly larger proportion of precipitation than the pan Indian average. This heightened precipitation makes the region vulnerable to the repercussions of extreme weather events. Therefore, this study delves into the variations in precipitation during the pre-monsoon period over the Northwest Himalayas spanning from 1979 to 2018. It has been observed that since 1998, the mean baseline for precipitation has shifted downward, signifying a bi-decadal transition. Notably, the seasonal average precipitation has dropped to 50% of the levels recorded before 1998, with March emerging as the primary contributor to this overall decline. Subsequent analysis revealed that western disturbances (WDs) predominantly account for the precipitation in this region during this season. This dominance arises due to the lack of conducive local atmospheric conditions for any other significant source of moisture and precipitation. However, the strength of zonal moisture transport and WDs aided vorticities are seen to be weakening post 1998 which also interestingly coincides with the strongest El Nino phase on record and the start of a negative Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) cycle. As a result, the role of global teleconnections is investigated, which concluded that negative PDO conditions after 1998 are responsible for changes in the atmospheric circulation pattern. Such changes resulted in air subsidence over the study region which increased the atmospheric stability while weakening the lower-level convergence and the westerly component of moisture transport. Consequently, the pre-monsoon precipitation has experienced a steep decline in the recent decades. To further examine this hypothesis, a threefold process is employed, which encompasses the study of changes in circulation patterns, cause-effect cluster analysis, and case study comparisons.
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Data availability
Gridded precipitation data of IMD is available at https://www.imdpune.gov.in/Clim_Pred_LRF_New/Grided_Data_Download.html. [Last Access: 10 Nov, 2022]. ERA5 reanalysis data is available at Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store of ECMWF (https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/home). [Last Access: 10 Nov, 2022]. CAMS global reanalysis (EAC4) is available at Atmosphere Data Store (ADS) of ECMWF (https://ads.atmosphere.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/home). [Last Access: 10 Nov, 2022]. NCEI PDO index is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/. [Last Access: 10 Nov, 2022]. Nino 3.4 anomaly SST index from NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory is available at https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino34.long.anom.data. [Last Access: 10 Nov, 2022]. Dipole Mode Index (DMI) is available at https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data. [Last Access: 10 Nov, 2022].
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DA performed the analysis and wrote the first draft of the paper. RC and RA provided the initial concept and contributed to the supervision, analysis and discussion of the paper. All authors reviewed and edited the manuscript.
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Aggarwal, D., Chakraborty, R. & Attada, R. Investigating bi-decadal precipitation changes over the Northwest Himalayas during the pre-monsoon: role of Pacific decadal oscillations. Clim Dyn 62, 1203–1218 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06969-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06969-3