Abstract
We present the Adriatic atmosphere–ocean trends and variability simulated by the kilometer-scale Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) climate model during the 1987–2017 period. As the AdriSC model has been successfully validated over the entire basin against an extensive dataset of in situ measurements and remote sensing products, the reliability of the presented results at the regional (basin-wide) and local (sub-domains) scales is high. We found that trends and variability in the atmosphere reveal strong land-sea contrasts with (1) stronger temperature trends associated with lower, mostly seasonal, variability over the Adriatic Sea than over the land and (2) positive trends of wind speed and negative trends of relative humidity associated with high, mostly seasonal, variability over the sea and vice versa over the land. While, in the ocean, the analysis highlights several processes: (1) extensive warming by the atmosphere at the surface during summer, affecting both temperature and salinity, (2) shallowing of the advection of the saline Levantine Intermediate Water inflow into the Adriatic, (3) decrease of the Adriatic deep water outflow and therefore the Adriatic-Ionian thermohaline circulation, (4) warming of near-bottom waters, in particular in the middle and northern Adriatic, and (5) shrinking and weakening of the Southern Adriatic Gyre, in particular at its center. We thus demonstrate that kilometer-scale coupled atmosphere–ocean modelling is an indispensable tool for proper quantification of climate change in complex coastal basins, as it captures local characteristics not properly reproduced by present state-of-the-art regional climate models with an order of magnitude coarser resolutions.
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Data and material availability
The model results used to produce this article can be obtained under the Open Science framework (OSF) through the FAIR data repository at https://osf.io/h8sjd/ (https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/H8SJD).
Code availability
The code of the AdriSC climate model used in this article can be obtained under the Open Science Framework (OSF) FAIR data repository https://osf.io/zb3cm/ (https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/ZB3CM).
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Acknowledgements
To the European Centre for Middle-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) which provided both staff support, for which we particularly thank Xavier Abellan and Carsten Maass, and the computing and archive facilities used in this research. Reviewer comments are appreciated and greatly improved the manuscript.
Funding
ADIOS project: Croatian Science Foundation Grant IP-2016-06-1955. BivACME project: Croatian Science Foundation Grant IP-2019-04-8542. CHANGE WE CARE project: Interreg Italy-Croatia Programme Grant. European Centre for Middle-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Special Projects: (1) Numerical modelling of the Adriatic-Ionian decadal and inter-annual oscillation: from realistic simulations to process oriented experiments; (2) Using stochastic surrogate methods for advancing towards reliable meteotsunami early warning system.
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IV and CD designed the study and developed the concept. Material preparation was done by CD and IT. Production of the figures was done by IT. Analysis of the results was performed by CD, IV and IT. The first draft of the manuscript was written by IT and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Tojčić, I., Denamiel, C. & Vilibić, I. Kilometer-scale trends and variability of the Adriatic present climate (1987–2017). Clim Dyn 61, 2521–2545 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06700-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06700-2