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Mesoscale convective systems over the Amazon basin in a changing climate under global warming

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Abstract

Climate change is imminent and threatens the largest watershed in the world, the Amazon basin. As general circulation models may fail to represent cloud-scale phenomena, precipitation in a changing climate under global warming is still a factor of great uncertainty, especially in Tropical regions. In this study, we used long-term high-resolution simulations from a global cloud-resolving model under the scope of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to verify the climate change impacts on the mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over the Amazon basin. We generated a complete spatial, temporal, and statistical characterization of the MCSs for the past (1950–1960), present (2000–2010), and near-future (2040–2050). We found that MCSs are a critical mechanism for precipitation, especially in austral winter. The simulations are consistent with the observed precipitation and MCSs patterns over the Amazon basin, indicating that MCSs are less frequent compared to the past and are expected to continuously decline in the near-future. Most decreases are projected from September to December, while an increase between June to August, mainly in the southern portion of the Amazon basin. In addition, the investigation presented here shows the great potential of using a global cloud-resolving model under the CMIP6 scope to investigate mesoscale systems in a warming climate.

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Data availability

The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are not publicly available due to their large volume but are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank the Atmospheric and Ocean Research Institute (AORI) from the University of Tokyo and the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) for providing the global high-resolution long-term simulations used in this study. AR was supported by Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) Grants 2016/10557-0 and 2018/16217-2. TA was partially funded by the National Institute of Science and Technology for Climate Change Phase 2 under CNPq, Grant number 465501/2014-1; Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) Grant numbers 2014/50848-9 and 2017/09659-6. Tercio Ambrizzi also had partial support from CNPq 301397/2019-8.

Funding

Author AR has received research support from Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) (Grant number 2016/10557-0 and 2018/16217-2). TA was partially funded by the National Institute of Science and Technology for Climate Change Phase 2 under CNPq, Grant number 465501/2014-1; Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) Grant numbers 2014/50848-9 and 2017/09659-6. Tercio Ambrizzi also had partial support from CNPq 301397/2019-8.

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  1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences, University of São Paulo (USP), São Paulo, Brazil

    Amanda Rehbein & Tercio Ambrizzi

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  1. Amanda Rehbein
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All authors contributed to the study’s conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by AR. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Amanda Rehbein.

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Rehbein, A., Ambrizzi, T. Mesoscale convective systems over the Amazon basin in a changing climate under global warming. Clim Dyn 61, 1815–1827 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06657-8

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