Abstract
The significant multi-decadal mode (MDM) of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) during the past two millennia provides a basis for decadal predictability of the ISMR and has a strong association with the North-Atlantic (NA) variability with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) as a potential external driver. It is also known that the annual cycles and interannual variability of ISMR and sea surface temperatures (SST) over the tropical Indian Ocean (IO) are strongly coupled. However, the role of local air–sea interactions in maintaining or modifying the ISMR MDM remains unknown. A related puzzle we identify is that the IO SST has an increasing trend during two opposite phases of the ISMR MDM, namely during an increasing phase of ISMR (1901–1957) as well as a decreasing phase of ISMR (1958–2007). Here, using a twentieth-century reanalysis (20CR), we examine the role of air-sea interactions in maintaining two opposite phases of the ISMR MDM and unravel that the Bjerknes feedback is at the heart of maintaining the ISMR MDM but cannot explain the increasing trend of SST in the tropical IO during the opposite phases. Large-scale low-level vorticity influence on SST and net heat flux changes through circulation and cloudiness changes associated with the two phases of the ISMR MDM together contribute to the SST trends. The decreasing trend of low-level wind convergence during the period between 1958 and 2007 is a determining factor for the decreasing trend of ISMR in the backdrop of an increasing trend of atmospheric moisture content. Consistent with the lead of the AMO with respect to ISMR by about a decade, the AMO drives the transition from one phase of ISMR MDM to another by changing its phase first and setting up low-level equatorial zonal winds conducive for the transition.
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(a) The monthly gridded data of sea surface temperature (SST) for the period 1901–2007 has been taken from Hadley Center, UK Met Office. The data can be obtained from: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/data/download.html; (b) Daily gridded rainfall data for the period 1901–2007 has been taken from India Meteorological Department (IMD). This data can be obtained from: https://www.imdpune.gov.in/Clim_Pred_LRF_New/Grided_Data_Download.html; (c) NCEP 20th Century Reanalysis V3 data products for the period 1901–2007: Surface wind, winds at 850 hPa, net downward shortwave radiation flux, net upward longwave radiation flux, sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, specific humidity, and gridded rainfall datasets can be obtained from: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.20thC_ReanV3.html; (d) Simple Ocean Data Assimilation version 2 data products for the period 1901–2007: Surface current, Ocean heat content, sea surface height datasets can be obtained from: http://apdrc.soest.hawaii.edu/las/v6/dataset?catitem=4866; (e) ERA-20CM data products for the period 1901–2007: Net downward shortwave radiation flux, net upward longwave radiation flux, sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, and gridded rainfall datasets can be obtained from: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/browse-reanalysis-datasets; (f) Net heat flux dataset for the period 1979–2018 has been taken from INCOIS and can be obtained from: https://incois.gov.in/tropflux/.
Code availability
Used MATLAB and climate data operator (CDO).
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Acknowledgements
BNG is grateful to the Science and Engineering Research Board (SERB), Government of India for the SERB Distinguished Fellowship and Research grant. Dhruba Jyoti Goswami thanks SERB Distinguished Fellowship for financial support and Department of Physics, Cotton University for providing the required facilities. He also thanks Center for Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences (CEOAS), University of Hyderabad for the encouragement and support to carry out this research. We are grateful to three anonymous reviewers for constructive comments and suggestions on an earlier version of the manuscript that led to a significant improvement of the manuscript.
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DST | Science and Engineering Research Board (SERB): Bhupendra Nath Goswami Diary No. SERBIF/ 3707 12020–21 SERB Distinguished Fellowship.
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Goswami, D.J., Ashok, K. & Goswami, B.N. Local ocean–atmosphere interaction in Indian summer monsoon multi-decadal variability. Clim Dyn 60, 1253–1270 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06377-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06377-z