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Predictability of the two temperature modes of the East Asian winter monsoon in the NCEP-CFSv2 and MRI-CPSv2 models

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Abstract

Using hindcast and forecast data from advanced prediction systems of NCEP CFSv2 and JMA/MRI CPSv2 for the winter 1982/1983–2017/2018, this study investigates the predictability of the climatology and dominant modes of winter-mean surface air temperature (SAT) over East Asia. Although the simulated climatological mean SAT has a large bias over most of the mainland China, both models show high forecasting skills for the principal components (PC1 and PC2) of the two major modes (northern and southern temperature modes) of the winter-mean SAT over East Asia 1 month in advance. In comparison, the MRI-CPSv2 performs better than the CFSv2 in simulating the spatial distribution of the northern temperature mode and the associated circulation anomalies aloft, but the CFSv2 has better performance than the MRI-CPSv2 in simulating the spatial distribution of southern temperature mode and its linkage to the Arctic Oscillation and Eurasian pattern. Furthermore, both models well simulate the impacts of the dipole sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the mid-latitude North Pacific and El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the northern and southern temperature modes, respectively. Accordingly, the forecasting skill and signal-to-noise ratio of the PC1 (PC2) are significantly improved in the years with strong SST anomalies over the mid-latitude North Pacific (tropical central-eastern Pacific), particularly for the CFSv2 (MRI-CPSv2) predictions. These results are beneficial for understanding the interannual predictability of the East Asian winter climate.

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Availability of data and material

The datasets used during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Code availability

NCAR Command Language is used for preparing manuscript figures. Scripts for analyzing the data are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

This study is jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFC1502301), the General Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42175028, 41905057, 42065003, 41975098), the Innovation Group Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) (no. 311021009).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai, China

    Meng Zou, Shaobo Qiao, Yang Yang, Xian Zhu, Qingxiang Li & Wenjie Dong

  2. Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere Ocean System (Sun Yat-Sen University), Ministry of Education, Zhuhai, China

    Shaobo Qiao, Xian Zhu, Qingxiang Li & Wenjie Dong

  3. Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, China

    Shaobo Qiao, Xian Zhu, Qingxiang Li, Guolin Feng & Wenjie Dong

  4. Jiangsu Climate Center, Jiangsu Meteorological Bureau, Nanjing, China

    Jie Yang

  5. School of Physical Science and Technology, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, China

    Guolin Feng

  6. Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

    Guolin Feng

  7. School of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China

    Shankai Tang

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  1. Meng Zou
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Contributions

Ideas were raised by SQ and JY. Data collection and analysis were performed by MZ, YY and ST. The initial manuscript was wrote by MZ, SQ and JY. XZ, QL, GF, and WD contributed to explaining results and improved the manuscript. All authors approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Shaobo Qiao or Xian Zhu.

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Zou, M., Qiao, S., Yang, Y. et al. Predictability of the two temperature modes of the East Asian winter monsoon in the NCEP-CFSv2 and MRI-CPSv2 models. Clim Dyn 59, 3211–3225 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06254-9

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