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Nonstationarity and potential multi-decadal variability in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Southern Annular Mode teleconnection

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Abstract

While the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) relationship is weak in recent years, a strong correlation between May Southern Annular Mode Index (SAMI) and June–July (JJ) ISMR is a southern hemispheric source of ISMR predictability. Here, using observed and reanalysis data, we find that the SAMI–ISMR relationship is non-stationary with a potential multi-decadal variability. Both during high/low correlation periods (1980–2010)/(1949–1979), a Southern Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD) pattern of JJ sea surface temperature anomaly is found to reverse sign during strong and weak SAMI years. The changes in the strength and location of the northern pole of SIOD during the two time blocks are consistent with corresponding changes in the cross equatorial flow and monsoon south-westerlies together with change in SAMI–ISMR correlations. Our analysis indicates teleconnection pathways through which the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) may be responsible for the multi-decadal swings of SAMI–ISMR correlations through modulation of the SIOD.

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Acknowledgements

Authors are thankful to three anonymous reviewers whose comments and suggestions have helped us to improve the overall quality of the manuscript. SD thanks the DST for providing support under the DST-FIST scheme. PP thanks DST-CCP for providing research fellowship. BNG thanks the Science and Engineering Research Board, Government of India for the SERB Distinguished Fellowship and Cotton University for hosting. All the data used for the analysis in the paper are duly cited in the references. Datasets for this research are freely available and are reported in these in-text data citation references: ISMR data in Parthasarathy et al. (1994) and Kothawale and Rajeevan 2017; MSLP and wind data in Poli et al. (2016), Compo et al. (2011) and Slivinski et al. (2019); Marshall SAM index in Marshall (2003); GPCC precipitation data in Schneider et al. (2017) and SST data in Huang et al. (2017).

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  1. K Banerjee Centre of Atmospheric and Ocean Studies and M N Saha Centre of Space Studies, University of Allahabad, Allahabad, UP, 211002, India

    Suneet Dwivedi & Pushpa Pandey

  2. Department of Physics, Cotton University, Guwahati, India

    B. N. Goswami

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  1. Suneet Dwivedi
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Dwivedi, S., Pandey, P. & Goswami, B.N. Nonstationarity and potential multi-decadal variability in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Southern Annular Mode teleconnection. Clim Dyn 59, 671–683 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06146-y

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