Abstract
Persistent, multi-year shifts in atmospheric circulations and their associated influence on regional climates have profound impacts on physical, biological, and socioeconomic systems. The Pacific Decadal Precession (PDP), an atmospheric mode of variability consisting of a lower tropospheric height dipole which rotates counterclockwise over several years in the North Pacific, describes a series of such shifts in atmospheric circulations. One phase of the PDP, the north-south (N-S) phase, is hypothesized to be partially driven by central tropical Pacific (CP) sea surface temperature (SST) variability, but robust assessment of this dynamical connection in climate models remains to be done. In this study, we investigate this hypothesis with analyses in both reanalysis and selected models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) archive. We show that the emergence of the N-S phase is both related to and influenced by tropical Pacific decadal SST variability, specifically variability associated with CP El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. When examining the pre-industrial runs of the CMIP6 models, we find that most models cannot recover the characteristic cyclonic precession of the dipoles of the PDP, instead featuring only amplitude and sign changes of the N-S phase, Moreover, the models do not replicate the dynamical connections between the tropical Pacific and this North Pacific mode of climate variability. Our results suggest that primary reasons for this inconsistency are that models inaccurately simulate both the SST pattern associated with the PDP, shared low-frequency power associated with CP ENSO events, and incorrect Rossby wavetrains emanating from the tropical Pacific into the North Pacific on quasi-decadal timescales. Taken together, our analyses offer another benchmark by which to test the fidelity of the climate model simulations in capturing Pacific decadal climate variability in order to improve decadal-to-centennial climate projections.
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Availability of data and material
20th Century Reanalysis V2c data are provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSL, Boulder, Colorado, USA, and are publicly available at https://psl.noaa.gov/. The Hadley Centre’s Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST) data are publicly available for free download from the Met Office Hadley Centre at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/data/download.html. The model output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are publicly available for download (upon free registration) from the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) at https://esgf.llnl.gov/.
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20th Century Reanalysis V2c data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSL, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at https://psl.noaa.gov/. Support for the 20th Century Reanalysis Project version 2c dataset is provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research (BER), and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office. The authors acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF.
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M. H. Rogers and J. C. Furtado conducted the data analysis for the manuscript. All authors contributed to the writing and editing of the manuscript.
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Rogers, M.H., Furtado, J.C. & Anderson, B.T. The pacific decadal precession and its relationship to tropical pacific decadal variability in CMIP6 models. Clim Dyn 59, 23–40 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06114-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06114-y