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Influence of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on South Asian and East Asian summer monsoon rainfall in CMIP6 models

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Abstract

The present study investigates the influence of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) on the South Asian and East Asian summer monsoon rainfall and associated ocean-atmospheric conditions in 24 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. The observations illustrate significant negative precipitation anomalies over the Central India and Central China (CICC) regions in response to positive IPO during the summer season. Almost two-thirds of the models could well represent the IPO pattern as in observations with strong sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the central to eastern Pacific and cooling in the north and south-central Pacific. CMIP6 models are classified into two groups based on the area-averaged regression of precipitation over the CICC region. Models in group 1 (G1), representation of IPO–CICC teleconnections, are somewhat similar to the observations, while in group 2 (G2), models underestimate the IPO–CICC relationship. Low-level anomalous anticyclonic circulation anomalies and moisture divergence contribute to precipitation reduction in observations and G1 models over the CICC region. In addition, the large-scale divergence at the lower level, along with the high-level convergence across the CICC region, corresponding to IPO, is as strong in the G1 models as in the observations. However, G2 models are not able to represent these circulation patterns and therefore not able to represent the IPO–CICC teleconnections well. Overall, G1 models can represent large-scale air-sea interactions across the Indo-Pacific region associated with an IPO. This study highlights the importance of capturing/simulating the reliable large-scale circulation patterns related to IPO in coupled models to capture the IPO–CICC teleconnections.

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Acknowledgements

We thank the climate modeling groups for making and producing their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies that support CMIP6 and ESGF. We thank the NCAR for making available the NCAR Command Language (NCL). All data sources are duly acknowledged. This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41830538, 42090042 and 42175043), the Chinese Academy of Sciences (183311KYSB20200015, ISEE2021PY02, ISEE2021ZD01, 33244KYSB20190031 and ISEE2018PY06), and the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou) (GML2019ZD0303, GML2019ZD0306, 2019BT02H594).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 164 West Xingang Road, Guangzhou, 510301, China

    Veeranjaneyulu Chinta, Zesheng Chen & Yan Du

  2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

    Veeranjaneyulu Chinta & Yan Du

  3. Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory, Guangzhou, China

    Zesheng Chen & Yan Du

  4. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India

    Jasti S. Chowdary

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  1. Veeranjaneyulu Chinta
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Correspondence to Zesheng Chen or Yan Du.

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Chinta, V., Chen, Z., Du, Y. et al. Influence of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on South Asian and East Asian summer monsoon rainfall in CMIP6 models. Clim Dyn 58, 1791–1809 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05992-6

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