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Moisture sources associated with heavy rainfall over the Limpopo River Basin, southern Africa

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Abstract

Moisture sources and pathways over the Limpopo River Basin (LRB) in southern Africa were identified using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model applied to NCEP II (2.5° × 2.5°) reanalysis data for 1981–2016. The 10-day air parcel backward trajectories were produced for the extended wet season (October–April) as well as the early and late summer. Analysis of a 36-year climatology of air parcel trajectories indicated seven moisture source regions for the LRB; namely, local continental, tropical southeast Atlantic Ocean, midlatitude South Atlantic Ocean, tropical northwest Indian Ocean, tropical southwest Indian Ocean, subtropical southwest Indian Ocean, and the Agulhas Current. The results have shown that important differences in moisture source regions and pathways exist between early (October–December) and late (January–April) summers, with the tropical northwestern Indian Ocean and the northern Agulhas Current sources more prominent during JFMA than OND. On interannual time scales, there are notable differences in moisture source regions between anomalously wet and dry summers, with the South Indian Ocean moisture contribution and transport over the LRB smaller during dry summers than wet summers. Changes in specific humidity for trajectory linked to heavy daily rainfall events (defined from CHIRPS data) showed that subtropical South Indian Ocean source is more extensive for the heavy rainfall than for the moderate case. Generally, moisture source regions and transport pathways for LRB tend to be influenced by both the regional summer season circulation and the synoptic setting.

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Acknowledgements

Ramontsheng Rapolaki was funded by the National Research Foundation (NRF) through the South African Environmental Observation Network (SAEON; grant number: 101035) and the University of Cape Town (UCT) Doctoral Research Scholarship. Ross Blamey and Chris Reason were supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Future Climate For Africa (FCFA) regional consortium project ‘UMFULA’ (NE/M020223/1) and NRF ACSyS programme. The NCEP II data used here were downloaded free of charge online from ftp://arlftp.arlhq.noaa.gov/pub/archives. The HYSPLIT model was downloaded from https://www.arl.noaa.gov/hysplit. Opinions expressed and conclusions arrived at are those of the author and are not necessarily to be attributed to SAEON.

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  1. Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3, Rondebosch, Cape Town, 7701, South Africa

    R. S. Rapolaki, R. C. Blamey, J. C. Hermes & C. J. C. Reason

  2. SAEON Egagasini Node, Private Bag X2, Roggebaai, Cape Town, 8012, South Africa

    R. S. Rapolaki & J. C. Hermes

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Rapolaki, R.S., Blamey, R.C., Hermes, J.C. et al. Moisture sources associated with heavy rainfall over the Limpopo River Basin, southern Africa. Clim Dyn 55, 1473–1487 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05336-w

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