Abstract
The boreal-winter stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events and their prediction skills by an operational numerical weather prediction model are examined by applying the Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs) for 18 SSW events from 1980–2012. Based on the mean squared skill score of the 10-hPa geopotential height field, which considers the SSW spatial structure, most SSW events are predicted with a maximum forecast lead time of approximately 15 days. The vortex-displacement SSW events are slightly better predicted than the vortex-split SSW events, and the predictions are improved during El Niño or easterly quasi-biennial oscillation winters. However, the skill difference in vortex morphology and background state is statistically insignificant. The decomposition of model errors into zonal-mean and eddy errors reveals that the model errors mostly result from eddy components. In particular, eddy-amplitude errors, which originate from a misrepresentation of the planetary-scale wave amplitude (i.e., polar vortex strength), play an important role in determining the SSW prediction skill with a non-negligible contribution from eddy-phase errors. These errors are mostly caused by the misdetection of short-term wave activities immediately before the SSW onset. Furthermore, an improved SSW prediction through well-represented planetary-scale wave activities is related to an improved prediction in the troposphere on time scales of 10 days and longer. This result confirms that better representation of the stratosphere could lead to improved subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions in the northern extratropics.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Baldwin MP, Dunkerton TJ (2001) Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes. Science 294:581–584. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1063315
Butler AH, Charlton‐Perez A, Domeisen DIV, Garfinkel C, Gerber EP, Hitchcock P, Karpechko AY, Maycock AC, Sigmond M, Simpson I, Son S-W (2019) Sub‐seasonal predictability and the stratosphere. In: Sub‐seasonal to seasonal prediction. Elsevier, pp 223–241. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-811714-9.00011-5
Cámara A, Albers JR, Birner T, Garcia RR, Hitchcock P, Kinnison DE, Smith AK (2017) Sensitivity of sudden stratospheric warmings to previous stratospheric conditions. J Atmos Sci 74:2857–2877. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0136.1
Charlton AJ, Polvani LM (2007) A new look at stratospheric sudden warmings. Part I: climatology and modeling benchmarks. J Clim 20:449–469. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3996.1
Domeisen DIV, Butler AH, Charlton-Perez AJ, Ayarzaguüena B, Baldwin MP, Dunn-Sigouin E, Furtado JC, Garfinkel CI, Hitchcock P, Karpechko AY, Kim H, Knight J, Lang AL, Lim E-P, Marshall A, Roff G, Schwartz C, Simpson IR, Son S-W, Taguchi M (2019) The role of the stratosphere in subseasonal to seasonal prediction. Part II: predictability arising from stratosphere-troposphere coupling. J Geophys Res. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jd030923
Goddard L, Kumar A, Solomon A, Smith D, Boer G, Gonzalez P, Kharin V, Merryfield W, Deser C, Mason SJ, Kirtman BP, Msadek R, Sutton R, Hawkins E, Fricker T, Hegerl G, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB, Meehl GA, Stockdale T, Burgman R, Greene AM, Kushnir Y, Newman M, Carton J, Fukumori I, Delworth T (2013) A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments. Clim Dyn 40:245–272. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1481-2
Hong S-Y, Park H, Cheong H-B, Kim J-EE, Koo M-S, Jang J, Ham S, Hwang S-O, Park B-K, Chang E-C, Li H (2013) The global/regional integrated model system (GRIMs). Asia-Pac J Atmos Sci 49:219–243. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-013-0023-0
Ichimaru T, Noguchi S, Hirooka T, Mukougawa H (2016) Predictability changes of stratospheric circulations in Northern Hemisphere winter. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 94:7–24. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2016-001
Karpechko AY (2018) Predictability of sudden stratospheric warmings in the ECMWF extended-range forecast system. Mon Weather Rev 146:1063–1075. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0.17.1
Kim Y-J, Flatau M (2010) Hindcasting the January 2009 Arctic sudden stratospheric warming with unified parameterization of orographic drag in NOGAPS. Part I: extended-range stand-alone forecast. Weather Forecast 25:1628–1644. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010WAF2222421.1
Kim J, Son S-W, Gerber EP, Park H-S (2017) Defining sudden stratospheric warmings in models: accounting for biases in model climatologies. J Clim 30:5529–5546. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0465.1
Kobayashi S, Ota Y, Harada Y, Ebita A, Moriya M, Onoda H, Onogi K, Kamahori H, Kobayashi C, Endo H, Miyaoka K, Takahashi K (2015) The JRA-55 reanalysis: general specifications and basic characteristics. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 93:5–48. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2015-001
Koo M-S, Hong S-Y (2013) Double Fourier series dynamical core with hybrid sigma-pressure vertical coordinate. Tellus 65A:19851. https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.19851
Kuroda Y (2008) Role of the stratosphere on the predictability of medium-range weather forecast: a case study of winter 2003–2004. Geophys Res Lett 35:L19701. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034902
Kuttippurath J, Nikulin G (2012) A comparative study of the major sudden stratospheric warmings in the Arctic winters 2003/2004–2009/2010. Atmos Chem Phys 12:8115–8129. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-8115-2012
Marshall AG, Scaife AA (2010) Improved predictability of stratospheric sudden warming events in an atmospheric general circulation model with enhanced stratospheric resolution. J Geophys Res 115:D16114. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012643
Martineau P, Son S-W (2013) Planetary-scale wave activity as a source of varying tropospheric response to stratospheric sudden warming events: A case study. J Geophys Res 118:10994–11006. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50871
Mukougawa H, Hirooka T (2004) Predictability of stratospheric sudden warming: a case study for 1998/99 winter. Mon Weather Rev 132:1764–1776. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<1764:POSSWA>2.0.CO;2
Mukougawa H, Sakai H, Hirooka T (2005) High sensitivity to the initial condition for the prediction of stratospheric sudden warming. Geophys Res Lett 32:L17806. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022909
Naujokat B (1986) An update of the observed quasi-biennial oscillation of the stratospheric winds over the tropics. J Atmos Sci 43:1873–1877. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1986)043<1873:AUTOQ>2.0.CO;2
Noguchi S, Mukougawa H, Kuroda Y, Mizuta R, Yabu S, Yoshimura H (2016) Predictability of the stratospheric polar vortex breakdown: an ensemble reforecast experiment for the splitting event in January 2009. J Geophys Res 121:3388–3404. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024581
Rao J, Ren R, Chen H, Yu Y, Zhou Y (2018) The stratospheric sudden warming event in February 2018 and its prediction by a climate system model. J Geophys Res 123:13332–13345. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD028908
Rao J, Garfinkel CI, Chen H, White IP (2019) The 2019 new year stratospheric sudden warming and its real-time predictions in multiple S2S models. J Geophys Res 124:11155–11174. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030826
Sigmond M, Scinocca JF, Kharin VV, Shepherd TG (2013) Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings. Nat Geosci 6:98–102. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1698
Son S-W, Kim H, Song K, Kim S-W, Martineau P, Hyun Y-K, Kim Y (2019) Extratropical prediction skill of the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction models. J Geophys Res. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031273
Song K, Son S-W (2018) Revisiting the ENSO-SSW relationship. J Clim 31:2133–2143. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0078.1
Stan C, Straus DM (2009) Stratospheric predictability and sudden stratospheric warming events. J Geophys Res 114:D12103. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011277
Taguchi M (2015) Changes in frequency of major stratospheric sudden warmings with El Niño/southern oscillation and quasi-biennial oscillation. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 93:99–115. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2015-007
Taguchi M (2016) Connection of predictability of major stratospheric sudden warmings to polar vortex geometry. Atmos Sci Lett 17:33–38. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.595
Taguchi M (2018) Comparison of subseasonal-to-seasonal model forecasts for major stratospheric sudden warmings. J Geophys Res 123:10231–10247. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD028755
Takaya K, Nakamura H (2002) A formulation of a phase-independent wave-activity flux for stationary and migratory quasigeostrophic eddies on a zonally varying basic flow. J Atmos Sci 58:608–627. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2001)058<0608:AFOAPI>2.0.CO;2
Tripathi OP, Charlton-Perez A, Sigmond M, Vitart F (2015a) Enhanced long-range forecast skill in boreal winter following stratospheric strong vortex conditions. Environ Res Lett 10:104007. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104007
Tripathi OP et al (2015b) The predictability of the extratropical stratosphere on monthly time-scales and its impact on the skill of tropospheric forecasts. Q J R Meteorol Soc. 141:987–1003. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2432
Tripathi OP, Baldwin M, Charlton-Perez A, Charron M, Cheung JC, Eckermann SD, Gerber E, Jackson DR, Kuroda Y, Lang A, McLay J, Mizuta R, Reynolds C, Roff G, Sigmond M, Son S, Stockdale T (2016) Examining the predictability of the stratospheric sudden warming of January 2013 using multiple NWP systems. Mon Weather Rev 144:1935–1960. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0010.1
Vitart F, Ardilouze C, Bonet A, Brookshaw A, Chen M, Codorean C, Déqué M, Ferranti L, Fucile E, Fuentes M, Hendon H, Hodgson J, Kang H-S, Kumar A, Lin H, Liu G, Liu X, Malguzzi P, Mallas I, Manoussakis M, Mastrangelo D, MacLachlan C, McLean P, Minami A, Mladek R, Nakazawa T, Najm S, Nie Y, Rixen M, Robertson AW, Ruti P, Sun C, Takaya Y, Tolstykh M, Venuti F, Waliser D, Woolnough S, Wu T, Won D-J, Xiao H, Zaripov R, Zhang I (2017) The subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project database. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 98:163–173. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0017.1
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (Ministry of Science and ICT) (2017R1E1A1A01074889).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Song, K., Son, SW. & Charlton-Perez, A. Deterministic prediction of stratospheric sudden warming events in the Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs). Clim Dyn 55, 1209–1223 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05320-4
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05320-4