Abstract
Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are increasingly used to add small-scale processes at higher grid resolution that are not represented by their Lateral Boundary Conditions (LBCs). Rossby Centre regional atmospheric model, RCA4, has downscaled three Global Climate Models (GCMs), namely, CNRM-CM5, EC-EARTH and GFDL-ESM2M in the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) framework for Middle East North Africa (MENA) and South Asia (SA) domains. Arabian Peninsula is covered in both MENA and SA simulations, which gives a unique opportunity to study the effects of CORDEX domain and LBCs on the simulation of temperature and precipitation by RCM. It is examined by calculating the differences between MENA and SA simulations for different driving GCMs in the historical (1976–2005) and future (2071–2100) periods under RCP8.5 emission scenario, for both summer (dry) and winter (wet) seasons. RCA4 performs generally well when simulating the observed temperature and precipitation patterns, with some local wet biases over Asir Mountains and cold bias over the north eastern parts of Saudi Arabia. The simulations of temperature seem to be very sensitive to the simulation domain (i.e., MENA and SA) and less sensitive to different LBCs, whereas in case of precipitation LBCs seems to play a dominant role. The MENA simulations generally project about 2 °C warmer and drier climate compared to SA simulations by the end of this century, which is comparable to the differences arising due to different LBCs and climate change.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abdelmola YK (2009) Surface synoptic type over central Sudan during 1994–2003. PhD Thesis. Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Aristotle University, Thessaloniki, p 404
Abdullah MA, Al-Mazroui M (1998) Climatological study of the southwestern region of Saudi Arabia. I. Rainfall analysis. Clim Res 9(3):213–223
Almazroui M (1998) Climatological study over the southwestern region of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia with special reference to rainfall distribution, Master thesis, Department of Meteorology, Faculty of Meteorology, Environment and Arid Land Agriculture, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah
Almazroui M (2011) Calibration of TRMM rainfall climatology over Saudi Arabia during 1998–2009. Atmos Res 99(3–4):400–414. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.11.006
Almazroui M (2012) Dynamical downscaling of rainfall and temperature over the Arabian Peninsula using RegCM4. Clim Res 52:49–62. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01073
Almazroui M (2013) Simulation of present and future climate of Saudi Arabia using a regional climate model (PRECIS). Int J Climatol 33:2247–2259
Almazroui M (2016) RegCM4 in climate simulation over CORDEX-MENA/Arab domain: selection of suitable domain, convection and land-surface schemes. Int J Climatol 36(1):236–251
Almazroui M, Islam MN, Jones PD, Athar H, Rahman MA (2012) Recent climate change in the Arabian Peninsula: seasonal rainfall and temperature climatology of Saudi Arabia for 1979–2009. Atmos Res 111:29–45
Almazroui M, Abid MA, Athar H, Islam MN, Ehsan MA (2013) Interannual variability of rainfall over the Arabian Peninsula using the IPCC AR4 Global Climate Models. Int J Climatol 33:2328–2340
Almazroui M, Nazrul Islam M, Saeed S, Alkhalaf Abdulrahman K, Dambul Ramzah (2017) Assessment of uncertainties in projected temperature and precipitation over the Arabian peninsula using three categories of CMIP5 multimodel ensembles. Earth Syst Environ 1:23
Antic S, Laprise R, Denis B, de Elía R (2004) Testing the downscaling ability of a one-way nested regional climate model in regions of complex topography. Clim Dyn 23:473–493
Attada R, Dasari HP, Chowdary JS, Yadav RK, Knio O, Hoteit I (2018) Surface air temperature variability over the Arabian Peninsula and its links to circulation patterns. Int J Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5821
Beck Hylke E, van Dijk Albert IJM, Levizzani Vincenzo, Schellekens Jaap, Miralles Diego Gonzalez, Martens Brecht, de Roo Ad (2017) MSWEP: 3-hourly 0.25° global gridded precipitation (1979–2015) by merging gauge, satellite, and reanalysis data. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 21(1):589–615
Bergant K, Belda M, Halenka T (2007) Systematic errors in the simulation of European climate (1961–2000) with RegCM3 driven by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Int J Climatol 27(4):455–472. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1413
Bollasina M, Nigam S (2011) The summertime “heat” low over Pakistan/northwestern India: evolution and origin. Clim Dyn 37(5–6):957–970
Bozkurt D, Sen OL (2011) Precipitation in the Anatolian Peninsula: sensitivity to increased SSTs in the surrounding seas. Clim Dyn 36(3–4):711–726. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0651-3
Buchignani E, Mercogliano P, Panitz HJ, Montesarchio M (2018) Climate change projections for the Middle East-North Africa domain with COSMO-CLM at different spatial resolutions. Adv Clim Change Res 9(1):66–80
Centella-Artola A, Taylor MA, Bezanilla-Morlot A, Martinez-Castro D, Campbell JD, Stephenson TS, Vichot A (2015) Assessing the effect of domain size over the Caribbean region using the PRECIS regional climate model. Clim Dyn 44(7–8):1901–1918
Colin J, Déqué M, Radu R, Somot S (2010) Sensitivity study of heavy precipitation in limited area model climate simulations: influence of the size of the domain and the use of the spectral nudging technique. Tellus A 62:591–604. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00467.x
Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ, Berrisford P, Poli P, Kobayashi S, Andrae U, Balmaseda MA, Balsamo G, Bauer P, Bechtold P, Beljaars AC, van de Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Delsol C, Dragani R, Fuentes M, Geer AJ, Haimberger L, Healy SB, Hersbach H, Hólm EV, Isaksen L, Kållberg P, Köhler M, Matricardi M, McNally AP, Monge-Sanz BM, Morcrette J, Park B, Peubey C, de Rosnay P, Tavolato C, Thépaut J, Vitart F (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137(656):553–597
Denis B, Laprise R, Caya D, Côté J (2002) Downscaling ability of one-way nested regional climate model: the Big-Brother Experiment. Clim Dyn 18:627–646
Denis B, Laprise R, Caya D (2003) Sensitivity of a regional climate model to the resolution of the lateral boundary conditions. Clim Dyn 20:107–126
Diaconescu EP, Laprise R, Sushama L (2007) The impact of lateral boundary data errors on the simulated climate of a nested regional climate model. Clim Dyn 28(4):333–350
Dimitrijevic M, Laprise R (2005) Validation of the nesting technique in a regional climate model and sensitivity tests to the resolution of the lateral boundary conditions during summer. Clim Dyn 25:555–580
Evans JP (2009) 21st century climate change in the Middle East. Clim Change 92(3–4):417–432
Evans JP (2010) Global warming impact on the dominant precipitation processes in the Middle East. Theor Appl Climatol 99(3–4):389–402
Fan Y, van den Dool H (2008) A global monthly land surface air temperature analysis for 1948–present. J Geophys Res 113:D01103. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008470
Feser F, Rockel B, Storch H, Winterfeldt J, Zahn M (2011) Regional climate models add value to global model data: a review and South-Asian summer monsoon selected examples. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 92(9):1181–1192
Frieler K, Lange S, Piontek F, Reyer CP, Schewe J, Warszawski L, Zhao F, Chini L, Denvil S, Emanuel K, Geiger T (2017) Assessing the impacts of 1.5 C global warming—simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b). Geosci Model Dev 10(12):4321–4345
Gilbert RO (1987) Statistical methods for environmental pollution monitoring. Wiley, New York
Giorgi F, Bi X (2000) A study of internal variability of a regional climate model. J Geophys Res Atmos 105(D24):29503–29521
Giorgi F, Mearns LO (1999) Introduction to special section: regional climate modeling revisited. J Geophys Res 104(D6):6335–6352
Harris I, Jones PD, Osborn TJ, Lister DH (2014) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations—the CRU TS3.10 Dataset. Int J Climatol 34(3):623–642. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3711
Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds) (2001) Climate change. The scientific basis. Contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
IPCC, Collins M, Knutti R, Arblaster J, Dufresne JL, Fichefet T, Friedlingstein P, Gao X, Gutowski WJ, Johns T, Krinner G, Shongwe M, Tebaldi C, Weaver AJ, Wehner M (2013) Long-term climate change: projections, commitments and irreversibility. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate Change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Jacob D, Podzun R (1997) Sensitivity studies with the regional climate model REMO. Meteorol Atmos Phys 63:119–129. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01025368
Jones RG, Murphy JM, Noguer M (1995) Simulation of climate change over Europe using a nested regional climate model. Part I: Assessment of control climate, including sensitivity to location of lateral boundaries. Q J R Meteorol Soc 121(526):1413–1449
Jones RG, Murphy JM, Noguer M, Keen AB (1997) Simulation of climate change over Europe using a nested regional climate model. II: comparison of driving and regional model responses to a doubling of carbon dioxide. Q J R Meteorol Soc 123(538):265–292
Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation methods. Charles Griffin, London
Leduc M, Laprise R (2009) Regional climate model sensitivity to domain size. Clim Dyn 32(6):833–854
Lioubimtseva E (2004) Climate change in arid environments: revisiting the past to understand the future. Prog Phys Geogr Earth Environ 28(4):502–530
Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259
Messager C, Gallee H, Brasseur O (2004) Precipitation sensitivity to regional SST in a regional climate simulation during the West African monsoon for two dry years. Clim Dyn 22(2–3):249–266
Moss RH, Edmonds JA, Hibbard KA, Manning MR, Rose SK, Van Vuuren DP, Carter TR, Emori S, Kainuma M, Kram T, Meehl GA, Mitchell JFB, Nakicenovic N, Riahi K, Smith SJ, Stouffer RJ, Thomson AM, Weyant JP, Wilbanks TJ (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463(7282):747–756
Pal JS, Eltahir EAB (2016) Future temperature in Southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability. Nat Clim Change 6:197–200
Samuelsson P, Jones CG, Willén U, Ullerstig A, Gollvik S, Hansson U, Jansson C, Kjellström E, Nikulin G, Wyser K (2011) The Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model RCA3: model description and performance. Tellus Ser A 63(1):4–23
Schneider U, Becker A, Finger P, Meyer-Christoffer A, Rudolf B, Ziese M (2015) GPCC full data reanalysis version 7.0 at 0.5°: monthly land-surface precipitation from rain-gauges built on GTS-based and historic data. https://doi.org/10.5676/dwd_gpcc/fd_m_v7_050
Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s Tau. J Am Stat Assoc 63:1379–1389. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1968.10480934
Seth A, Giorgi F (1998) The effects of domain choice on summer precipitation simulation and sensitivity in a regional climate model. J Clim 11(10):2698–2712
Shiao CH, Juang HMH (2006) Sensitivity study of the climate simulation over East Asia with the CWB regional spectral model. Terr Atmos Ocean Sci 17(3):593–612
Sowers J, Vengosh A, Weinthal E (2011) Climate change, water resources, and the politics of adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa. Clim Change 104(3–4):599–627. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9835-4
Subyani AM (2004) Geostatistical study of annual and seasonal mean rainfall patterns in southwest Saudi Arabia/Distribution géostatistique de la pluie moyenne annuelle et saisonnière dans le Sud-Ouest de l’Arabie Saoudite. Hydrol Sci J. https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.49.5.803.55137
Syed FS, Iqbal W, Syed AAB, Rasul G (2014) Uncertainties in the regional climate models simulations of South-Asian summer monsoon and climate change. Clim Dyn 42:2079–2097
Tanarhte M, Hadjinicolaou P, Lelieveld J (2012) Intercomparison of temperature and precipitation data sets based on observations in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. J Geophys Res 117:D12102. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD017293
Taylor KE (2001) Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram. J Geophys Res Atmos 106(D7):7183–7192
Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93(4):485–498
Willmott CJ, Matsuura K (2001) Terrestrial air temperature and precipitation: monthly and annual time series (1950–1999) version 1.02. Center for Climatic Research, University of Delaware, Newark
Wu W, Lynch AH, Rivers A (2005) Estimating the uncertainty in a regional climate model related to initial and lateral boundary conditions. J Clim 18(7):917–933
Xie PP, Chen M, Shi W (2010) CPC unified gauge-based analysis of global daily precipitation. Preprints, 24th Conference on Hydrology, Atlanta, GA. Amer Meteor Soc 2.3A. http://ams.confex.com/ams/90annual/techprogram/paper_163676.htm
Zhang X, Aguilar E, Sensoy S, Melkonyan H, Tagiyeva U, Ahmed N, Kutaladze N, Rahimzadeh F, Taghipour A, Hantosh TH, Albert P (2005) Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003. J Geophys Res Atmos 110:D22. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006181
Zittis G (2018) Observed rainfall trends and precipitation uncertainty in the vicinity of the Mediterranean, Middle East and North Africa. Theor Appl Climatol 134:1207–1230
Acknowledgements
The authors thank the CORDEX framework, initiated and funded by the World Climate Research Program (WCRP), for providing Rossby centre RCA4 regional climate model data for Middle East North Africa (MENA) and South Asia (SA) regions available at Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) data portal and hosted at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI). We also thanks the anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Syed, F.S., Latif, M., Al-Maashi, A. et al. Regional climate model RCA4 simulations of temperature and precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula: sensitivity to CORDEX domain and lateral boundary conditions. Clim Dyn 53, 7045–7064 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04974-z
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04974-z