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Evaluation of CMIP5 climate model projections for surface wind speed over the Indian Ocean region

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Abstract

Global climate model (GCM) simulations of coupled model inter-comparison project phase 5 are being widely used for projections of the future climate change. The present study systematically evaluated the future simulations performed under four contrasting representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios obtained from 35 GCMs. The current wind climate (2006–2016) in GCM simulations have been assessed relative to merged altimetry derived wind speed. Skill assessment of the GCMs in representing the mean variability was investigated in detail using the Taylor’s skill score and thereby converging to a suite of best-performing models was selected. Multi-model mean (MMM) corresponding to four RCP scenarios were constructed from ACCESS1.0, CanESM2, CMCC-CMS, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-MR, MIROC-ESM, MRI-CGCM3 and NorESM1-M. The MMM wind climate estimated from these groups of models tend to perform better than individual models with significant improvements seen over most of the Indian Ocean (IO) region. The MMM skill score obtained from the four RCP scenarios were found to be similar, as the radiative forcing in these climate model experiments do not vary significantly for the recent decades. Significant changes in wind climate projections with reference to the historical period (1993–2005) are observed in the northern IO region, the zonal band of 30°S and region south of 40°S. Future projected changes in surface wind are found to be moderate for the 2026–2045 periods and the patterns in wind speed climate would be significantly changed by greenhouse gas forcing by end of the twenty-first century. The variability associated with sea level pressure, surface air temperature and sea surface temperature explains the projected changes in surface wind field under anthropogenic global warming scenario.

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Acknowledgements

The authors sincerely thank the Department of Science and Technology (DST), Government of India for the financial support. This study was conducted as a part of the Centre of Excellence (CoE) in Climate Change studies established at IIT Kharagpur funded by DST, Government of India. This study is a part of the project ‘Wind-Waves and Extreme Water Level Climate Projections for East Coast of India’ conducted under the CoE in Climate Change at IIT Kharagpur. The authors also acknowledge the World Climate Research Program’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, for providing CMIP5 multi-model data and IFREMER/CERSAT for making available quality checked altimeter datasets. All the CMIP5 model outputs were downloaded from the URL link https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/esgf-llnl/ CMIP5 data repository.

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  1. Department of Ocean Engineering and Naval Architecture, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, West Bengal, 721 302, India

    Soumya Mohan & Prasad K. Bhaskaran

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Mohan, S., Bhaskaran, P.K. Evaluation of CMIP5 climate model projections for surface wind speed over the Indian Ocean region. Clim Dyn 53, 5415–5435 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04874-2

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