Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Monthly variability of Luzon Strait tropical cyclone intensification over the Northern South China Sea in recent decades

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

A number of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) pass through Luzon Strait (LS) into the South China Sea (SCS) from June to November every year. The monthly variability of the ratio of TC intensity change, Rtc, shows that majority of the LSTCs achieve their lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) over the northern SCS (WNP) during August–September (June–July and October–November). Furthermore, compared to August, LSTCs in September are more easily intensified, suggesting that atmospheric and/or oceanic environments over the northern SCS in September are more favorable for TC development. The monthly-averaged oceanic and atmospheric environmental factors, including sea surface temperature, upper-ocean warm layer depth, vertical wind shear, relative humidity and large-scale low-level vorticity, are compared. The comparison between August and September is mainly studied because of the higher LSTCs frequency in these 2 months. The intensification tendency of LSTCs in September is primarily attributed to the relative thick upper-ocean warm layer and weak vertical wind shear. The transition of East Asian summer monsoon to winter monsoon tends to provide more favorable environmental conditions in September than in August for TC intensification in the northern SCS.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bender MA, Ginis I, Kurihara Y (1993) Numerical simulations of tropical cyclone-ocean interaction with a high-resolution coupled model. J Geophys Res Atmos 98:23245–23263

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bister M, Emanuel KA (2002) Low frequency variability of tropical cyclone potential intensity 1. Interannual to interdecadal variability. J Geophys Res Atmos 107:ACL 26-1–ACL 26-15

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chang C, Wang Z, Hendon H (2006) The Asian winter monsoon. In: The Asian Monsoon, pp 89–127

  • Chu J-H, Sampson CR, Levine AS, Fukada E (2002) The joint typhoon warning center tropical cyclone best-tracks, 1945–2000. Ref NRL/MR/7540-02 16

  • Cione JJ, Uhlhorn EW (2003) Sea surface temperature variability in hurricanes: implications with respect to intensity change. Mon Weather Rev 131:1783–1796

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cummings JA, Smedstad OM (2013) Variational data assimilation for the global ocean. In: Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic and Hydrologic Applications, Vol II. Springer, Berlin, pp 303–343

    Google Scholar 

  • DeMaria M (1996) The effect of vertical shear on tropical cyclone intensity change. J Atmos Sci 53:2076–2088

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • DeMaria M, Kaplan J (1994) Sea surface temperature and the maximum intensity of Atlantic tropical cyclones. J Clim 7:1324–1334

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Elsberry RL, Jeffries RA (1996) Vertical wind shear influences on tropical cyclone formation and intensification during TCM-92 and TCM-93. Mon Weather Rev 124:1374–1387

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Elsner JB, Liu K-b (2003) Examining the ENSO-typhoon hypothesis. Clim Res 25:43–54

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Emanuel KA (1986) An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part I: steady-state maintenance. J Atmos Sci 43:585–605

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Emanuel KA (1988) The maximum intensity of hurricanes. J Atmos Sci 45:1143–1155

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Emanuel KA (1994) Atmospheric convection. Oxford University Press on Demand, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Emanuel KA (1999) Thermodynamic control of hurricane intensity. Nature 401:665–669

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Emanuel K, DesAutels C, Holloway C, Korty R (2004) Environmental control of tropical cyclone intensity. J Atmos Sci 61:843–858

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Evan AT, Kossin JP, Ramanathan V (2011) Arabian Sea tropical cyclones intensified by emissions of black carbon and other aerosols. Nature 479:94–97

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fang J, Zhang F (2016) Contribution of tropical waves to the formation of supertyphoon megi. (2010) J Atmos Sci 73:4387–4405

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Frank WM, Ritchie EA (2001) Effects of vertical wind shear on the intensity and structure of numerically simulated hurricanes. Mon Weather Rev 129:2249–2269

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goldenberg SB, Landsea CW, Mestas-Nuñez AM, Gray WM (2001) The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity. Causes Implic Sci 293:474–479

    Google Scholar 

  • Goni G, Kamholz S, Garzoli S, Olson D (1996) Dynamics of the Brazil-Malvinas confluence based on inverted echo sounders and altimetry. J Geophys Res Oceans 101:16273–16289. https://doi.org/10.1029/96JC01146

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gray WM (1975) Tropical cyclone genesis in the western North Pacific. J Meteorol Soc Jpn Ser II 55:465–482

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gray WM (1979) Hurricanes: their formation, structure and likely role in the tropical circulation. In: Meteorology over the tropical oceans. Royal Meteorological Society, Bracknell, pp 155–218

    Google Scholar 

  • Guan S, Zhao W, Huthnance J, Tian J, Wang J (2014) Observed upper ocean response to typhoon Megi (2010) in the Northern South China Sea. J Geophys Res Oceans 119:3134–3157

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • He Z, Wu R (2013) Coupled seasonal variability in the South China Sea. J Oceanogr 69:57–69

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hendricks EA, Peng MS, Fu B, Li T (2010) Quantifying environmental control on tropical cyclone intensity change. Mon Weather Rev 138:3243–3271

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hill KA, Lackmann GM (2009) Influence of environmental humidity on tropical cyclone size. Mon Weather Rev 137:3294–3315

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holland GJ (1997) The maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclones. J Atmos Sci 54:2519–2541

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hu J, Kawamura H, Hong H, Qi Y (2000) A review on the currents in the South China Sea: seasonal circulation, South China Sea warm current and Kuroshio intrusion. J Oceanogr 56:607–624

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kalnay E et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kaplan J, DeMaria M, Knaff JA (2010) A revised tropical cyclone rapid intensification index for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. Weather Forecast 25:220–241

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Knapp KR, Kruk MC, Levinson DH, Diamond HJ, Neumann CJ (2010) The international best track archive for climate stewardship (IBTrACS). Bull Am Meteor Soc 91:363

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Knutson TR, Sirutis JJ, Garner ST, Vecchi GA, Held IM (2008) Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions. Nat Geosci 1:359–364

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lau K-M, Li M-T (1984) The monsoon of East Asia and its global associations—a survey. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 65:114–125

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lau K-H, Lau N-C (1990) Observed Structure and Propagation Characteristics of Tropical Summertime Synoptic Scale Disturbances. Mon Weather Rev 118:1888–1913

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liebmann B, Hendon HH (1990) Synoptic-scale disturbances near the equator. J Atmos Sci 47:1463–1479

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lin I, Wu C-C, Pun I-F, Ko D-S (2008) Upper-ocean thermal structure and the western North Pacific category 5 typhoons. Part I: ocean features and the category 5 typhoons’ intensification. Mon Weather Rev 136:3288–3306

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lin I et al (2013) An ocean coupling potential intensity index for tropical cyclones. Geophys Res Lett 40:1878–1882

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lin Y, Zhao M, Zhang M (2015) Tropical cyclone rainfall area controlled by relative sea surface temperature. Nat Commun 6:6591. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms7591(2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ling Z, Wang G, Wang C (2015) Out-of-phase relationship between tropical cyclones generated locally in the South China Sea and non-locally from the Northwest. Pacific Ocean Clim Dyn 45:1129–1136

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu Z, Yang H, Liu Q (2001) Regional dynamics of seasonal variability in the South China Sea. J Phys Oceanogr 31:272–284

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mei W, Xie S-P (2016) Intensification of landfalling typhoons over the northwest Pacific since the late 1970s. Nat Geosci 9:753–757

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Merrill RT (1988) Environmental influences on hurricane intensification. J Atmos Sci 45:1678–1687

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Molinari J, Skubis S, Vollaro D, Alsheimer F, Willoughby HE (1998) Potential vorticity analysis of tropical cyclone intensification. J Atmos Sci 55:2632–2644

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Needham HF, Keim BD, Sathiaraj D (2015) A review of tropical cyclone-generated storm surges: global data sources, observations, and impacts. Rev Geophys 53:545–591

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Oey LY, Chou S (2016) Evidence of rising and poleward shift of storm surge in western North Pacific in recent decades. J Geophys Res Oceans 121:5181–5192

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Oey LY, Ezer T, Wang DP, Fan SJ, Yin XQ (2006) Loop current warming by Hurricane Wilma. Geophys Res Lett 33:L08613

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peduzzi P et al (2012) Global trends in tropical cyclone risk. Nat Clim Change 2:289–294

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Price JF (2009) Metrics of hurricane-ocean interaction: vertically-integrated or vertically-averaged ocean temperature? Ocean Sci Discuss 5:351–368

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qu T (2001) Role of ocean dynamics in determining the mean seasonal cycle of the South China Sea surface temperature. J Geophys Res Atmos 106:6943–6955

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rubinstein RY, Kroese DP (2016) Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method. John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Schade LR, Emanuel KA (1999) The ocean’s effect on the intensity of tropical cyclones: results from a simple coupled atmosphere-ocean model. J Atmos Sci 56:642–651

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shay LK, Goni GJ, Black PG (2000) Effects of a warm oceanic feature on Hurricane Opal. Mon Weather Rev 128:1366–1383

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Simpson R, Riehl R (1958) Mid-tropospheric ventilation as a constraint on hurricane development and maintenance. In: Tech. conf. on hurricanes, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Miami Beach, pp D4-1–D4-10 (preprints)

  • Smith RL (1968) Upwelling. Oceanogr Mar Biol Annu Rev 6:11–46

    Google Scholar 

  • Strazzo S, Elsner JB, Trepanier JC, Emanuel KA (2013) Frequency, intensity, and sensitivity to sea surface temperature of North Atlantic tropical cyclones in best-track and simulated data. J Adv Model Earth Syst 5:500–509

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sun J, Oey L-Y (2015) The influence of the ocean on Typhoon Nuri (2008). Mon Weather Rev 143:4493–4513

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sun J, Oey L-Y, Chang R, Xu F, Huang S-M (2015) Ocean response to typhoon Nuri (2008) in western Pacific and South China Sea. Ocean Dyn 65:735–749

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sun J, Oey L, Xu F-H, Lin Y-C (2017) Sea level rise, surface warming, and the weakened buffering ability of South China Sea to strong typhoons in recent decades. Sci Rep 7:7418

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Twigt DJ, De Goede ED, Schrama EJ, Gerritsen H (2007) Analysis and modeling of the seasonal South China Sea temperature cycle using remote sensing. Ocean Dyn 57:467–484

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vecchi GA, Villarini G (2014) Next season’s hurricanes. Science 343:618–619

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang XD, Wang CZ, Zhang LP, Wang X (2015) Multidecadal variability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification in the Western North Pacific. J Clim 28:3806–3820. https://doi.org/10.1175/Jcli-D-14-00400.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang C, Wang X, Weisberg RH, Black ML (2017) Variability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification in the North Atlantic and its relationship with climate variations. Clim Dyn 49:3627–3645

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu L, Su H, Fovell RG, Wang B, Shen JT, Kahn BH, Hristova-Veleva SM, Lambrigtsen BH, Fetzer EJ, Jiang JH (2012) Relationship of environmental relative humidity with North Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity and intensification rate. Geophys Res Lett 39:L20809

    Google Scholar 

  • Xu F, Oey LY (2015) Seasonal SSH variability of the Northern South China Sea. J Phys Oceanogr 45:1595–1609

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zehr RM (2003) Environmental vertical wind shear with Hurricane Bertha (1996). Weather Forecast 18:345–356

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The work was supported by National Key R&D Program of China (No. 2016YFC1401408) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41576018 and No. 41606020).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

    Jingru Sun, Fanghua Xu & Yanluan Lin

  2. Graduate Institute of Hydrological & Oceanic Sciences, National Central University, Taoyuan, Taiwan

    Lie-Yauw Oey

  3. Princeton University, Princeton, USA

    Lie-Yauw Oey

Authors
  1. Jingru Sun
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Fanghua Xu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Lie-Yauw Oey
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Yanluan Lin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Fanghua Xu.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Sun, J., Xu, F., Oey, LY. et al. Monthly variability of Luzon Strait tropical cyclone intensification over the Northern South China Sea in recent decades. Clim Dyn 52, 3631–3642 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4341-x

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4341-x

Keywords

Search

Navigation