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Possible mechanisms for four regimes associated with cold events over East Asia

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Abstract

Circulation patterns associated with cold events over East Asia during the winter months of 1948–2014 are classified into four regimes by applying a k-means clustering method based on the area-weighted pattern correlation. The earliest precursor signals for two regimes are anticyclonic anomalies, which evolve into Ural and central Siberian blocking-like circulation patterns. The earliest precursor signals for the other two regimes are cyclonic anomalies, both of which evolve to amplify the East Asian trough (EAT). Both the blocking-like circulation patterns and amplified EAT favor the initialization of cold events. On average, the blocking-related regimes tend to last longer. The lead time of the earliest precursor signal for the central Siberian blocking-related regime is only 4 days, while those for the other regimes range from 16 to 18 days. The North Atlantic Oscillation plays essential roles both in triggering the precursor for the Ural blocking-related regime and in amplifying the precursors for all regimes. All regimes preferentially occur during the positive phase of the Eurasian teleconnection pattern and the negative phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. For three regimes, surface cooling is primarily due to reduced downward infrared radiation and enhanced cold advection. For the remaining regime, which is associated with the southernmost cooling center, sensible and latent heat release and horizontal cold advection dominate the East Asian cooling.

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Acknowledgements

We thank two anonymous reviewers for comments and suggestions that have substantially improved the manuscript. This work was jointly supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2015CB953703, 2014CB441302), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41505063), and the China Meteorological Welfare Research Fund (GYHY201406007).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling and Department of Earth System Science (DESS), Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China

    Zifan Yang, Wenyu Huang, Bin Wang, Ruyan Chen, Jonathon S. Wright & Wenqian Ma

  2. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

    Bin Wang

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  1. Zifan Yang
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Correspondence to Wenyu Huang.

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Yang, Z., Huang, W., Wang, B. et al. Possible mechanisms for four regimes associated with cold events over East Asia. Clim Dyn 51, 35–56 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3905-5

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