Abstract
Thermal processes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) influence atmospheric conditions on regional and global scales. Given this, previous work has shown that soil moisture–driven surface flux variations feed back onto the atmosphere. Whilst soil moisture is a source of atmospheric predictability, no study has evaluated soil moisture–atmosphere coupling on the TP in general circulation models (GCMs). In this study, we use several analysis techniques to assess soil moisture-atmosphere coupling in CMIP6 simulations including: instantaneous coupling indices; analysis of flux and atmospheric behaviour during dry spells; and a quantification of the preference for convection over drier soils. Through these metrics we partition feedbacks into their atmospheric and terrestrial components.
Consistent with previous global studies, we conclude substantial inter-model differences in the representation of soil moisture–atmosphere coupling, and that most models underestimate such feedbacks. Focusing on dry spell analysis, most models underestimate increased sensible heat during periods of rainfall deficiency. For example, the model-mean bias in anomalous sensible heat flux is 10 W m−2 (≈25%) smaller compared to observations. Deficient dry-spell sensible heat fluxes lead to a weaker atmospheric response. We also find that most GCMs fail to capture the negative feedback between soil moisture and deep convection. The poor simulation of feedbacks in CMIP6 experiments suggests that forecast models also struggle to exploit soil moisture–driven predictability. To improve the representation of land–atmosphere feedbacks requires developments in not only atmospheric modelling, but also surface processes, as we find weak relationships between rainfall biases and coupling indexes.
摘要
青藏高原的热力过程在区域和全球尺度上影响着大气条件, 以往研究指出, 土壤湿度驱动的表面通量变化可反馈至大气中. 虽然土壤湿度是大气可预测性的来源之一, 但目前还没有工作评估过大气环流模式GCMs中青藏高原的土壤湿度-大气反馈过程. 本文利用了一系列分析方法来评估CMIP6模拟的土壤湿度-大气反馈过程, 包括计算瞬时耦合指数、 干旱期通量和大气行为分析, 以及量化偏干土壤上空对流倾向. 通过这些方法, 将反馈过程分解为大气和陆面两部分.
与以往研究结果一致, 本文认为, 在土壤水分-大气耦合的表征方面, 模式间存在很大差异, 而且大多数模式低估了这种反馈. 对干期的分析显示, 多数模式低估了少雨期感热的增加. 例如, 模式平均的异常感热通量比观测偏小10 W m−2 (约25%). 干期感热通量偏少导致更弱的大气响应. 此外, 多数GCMs没有模拟出土壤湿度和深对流之间的负反馈过程. CMIP6对反馈过程的模拟较差表明预测模式在利用土壤湿度驱动的可预测性方面也存在困难. 本研究发现降水偏差和耦合指数之间的相关性很弱, 因此, 为了提升模式对陆-气反馈的表征能力, 需要同时发展大气模式和陆面过程.
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Acknowledgements
This work and its contributors (JT, OM, EB, CT and PLV) were supported by the UK-China Research Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund. During the writing of this paper, JT was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council as part of the NC-International programme (NE/X006247/1) delivering National Capability.
Access to CMIP6 model data was supported through the ISENES3 project that has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 824084. The authors would like to express their gratitude to those at the China Meteorological Administration for providing weather station data. All other data used in this study is freely available. CERES and GPM IMERG satellite products were obtained from the NASA/Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES-DISC). ERA5 reanalysis data was accessed on https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp/home.
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Article Highlights
• Substantial inter-model differences in the representation of soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks on the Tibetan Plateau.
• All models underestimate surface flux-atmospheric coupling during three-day dry spells.
• CMIP6 models are typically in contrast with observations and tend to favour deep convection over locally wetter soils.
This paper is a contribution to the 2nd Special Issue on Climate Science for Service Partnership China.
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Talib, J., Müller, O.V., Barton, E.J. et al. The Representation of Soil Moisture-Atmosphere Feedbacks across the Tibetan Plateau in CMIP6. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 40, 2063–2081 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-2296-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-2296-2