Abstract
The simulation and prediction of the climatology and interannual variability of the East Asia winter monsoon (EAWM), as well as the associated atmospheric circulation, was investigated using the hindcast data from Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5 (GloSea5), with a focus on the evolution of model bias among different forecast lead times. While GloSea5 reproduces the climatological means of large-scale circulation systems related to the EAWM well, systematic biases exist, including a cold bias for most of China’s mainland, especially for North and Northeast China. GloSea5 shows robust skill in predicting the EAWM intensity index two months ahead, which can be attributed to the performance in representing the leading modes of surface air temperature and associated background circulation. GloSea5 realistically reproduces the synergistic effect of El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) on the EAWM, especially for the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC). Compared with the North Pacific and North America, the representation of circulation anomalies over Eurasia is poor, especially for sea level pressure (SLP), which limits the prediction skill for surface air temperature over East Asia. The representation of SLP anomalies might be associated with the model performance in simulating the interaction between atmospheric circulations and underlying surface conditions.
摘要
利用英国气象局全球季节预测模式(GloSea5)的历史回算数据, 评估了模式对东亚冬季风强度和相关环流系统的模拟和预测能力, 分析了模式不同超前时间预报的技巧和误差增长情况. 研究发现, GloSea5模式对东亚冬季风环流和气温分布具有较好的模拟能力, 但是仍然存在较为明显的系统性偏差. GloSea5模式预测的冬季西伯利亚高压较之实况偏强, 极涡偏弱, 对我国大部地区冬季平均气温预测较之实况偏低, 特别是东北和华北等地. 尽管存在明显的系统性偏差, 但是GloSea5模式对东亚冬季风强度的年际变化仍然具有较好的预测能力, 10月起报(超前2月)的东亚冬季风强度指数与实况的距平相关系数达到0.56, 通过了99%信度检验. 分析表明, 模式10月预报技巧相对较高与对东亚冬季气温北方和南方模态的把握较好有关. 此外, 针对GloSea5模式对东亚冬季风与ENSO之间关系的模拟能力进行分析, 给出ENSO和北极涛动(AO)不同位相背景下, 模式对大气环流和气温的预测技巧及误差分布特征. GloSea5模式对与ENSO相联系的太平洋北美型遥相关和西北太平洋反气旋具有较高的预报技巧, 但是对欧亚中高纬度环流形势的预测技巧相对较低.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability. The GloSea5 data used in this study are archived at the Met Office and are available to research collaborators upon request. The ERA5 reanalysis data are available at https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu. The monthly Niño-3.4 index can be downloaded from the official website of BCC/CMA at http://cmdp.ncc-cma.net/pred/cn_enso.php?product=cn_enso_nino_indices. The monthly AO index, which extends from 1950 to 2022, is available ao_index.
References
Best, M. J., and Coauthors, 2011: The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description-Part 1: Energy and water fluxes. Geoscientific Model Development, 4(3), 677–699, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-677-2011.
Bowler, N. E., A. Arribas, S. E. Beare, K. R. Mylne, and G. J. Shutts, 2009: The local ETKF and SKEB: Upgrades to the MOGREPS short-range ensemble prediction system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 135(640), 767–776, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.394.
Cattiaux, J., and C. Cassou, 2013: Opposite CMIP3/CMIP5 trends in the wintertime Northern Annular mode explained by combined local sea ice and remote tropical influences. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40(14), 3682–3687, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50643.
Chang, C. P., and K. M. Lau, 1982: Short-term planetary-scale interactions over the tropics and midlatitudes during northern winter. Part I: Contrasts between active and inactive periods. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110(8), 933–946, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1982)110<0933:STPSIO>2.0.CO;2.
Chen, W., H. F. Graf, and R. H. Huang, 2000: The interannual variability of East Asian winter monsoon and its relation to the summer monsoon. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 17(1), 48–60, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-000-0042-5.
Chen, W., S. Yang, and R.-H. Huang, 2005: Relationship between stationary planetary wave activity and the East Asian winter monsoon. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 110(D14), D14110, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005669.
Chen, W., X. Q. Lan, L. Wang, and Y. Ma, 2013: The combined effects of the ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation on the winter climate anomalies in East Asia. Chinese Science Bulletin, 58(12), 1355–1362, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-012-5654-5.
Chen, W., L. Wang, J. Feng, Z. P. Wen, T. J. Ma, X. Q. Yang, and C. H. Wang, 2019: Recent progress in studies of the variabilities and mechanisms of the East Asian monsoon in a changing climate. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 36(9), 887–901, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-019-8230-y.
Chen, Z., R. G. Wu, and W. Chen, 2014: Distinguishing interannual variations of the northern and southern modes of the East Asian winter monsoon. J. Climate, 27(2), 835–851, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00314.1.
Cheung, H. H. N., and W. Zhou, 2015: Implication of Ural blocking for East Asian winter climate in CMIP5 GCMs. Part I: Biases in the historical scenario. J. Climate, 28(6), 2203–2216, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00308.1.
Cheung, H. N., W. Zhou, H. Y. Mok, and M. C. Wu, 2012: Relationship between Ural-Siberian blocking and the East Asian winter monsoon in relation to the Arctic Oscillation and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 25(12), 4242–4257, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00225.1.
Dee, D. P., and Coauthors, 2011: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137(656), 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828.
Ding, Y. H., and Coauthors, 2014: Interdecadal variability of the East Asian winter monsoon and its possible links to global climate change. J. Meteor. Res., 28(5), 693–713, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-014-4046-y.
Fan, H. D., L. Wang, Y. Zhang, Y. M. Tang, W. S. Duan, and L. Wang, 2020: Predictable patterns of wintertime surface air temperature in Northern Hemisphere and their predictability sources in the SEAS5. J. Climate, 33(24), 10 743–10 754, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0542.1.
Gollan, G., R. J. Greatbatch, and T. Jung, 2012: Tropical impact on the East Asian winter monsoon. Geophy. Res. Lett., 39(17), L17801, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052978.
Gong, D.-Y., S.-W. Wang, and J.-H. Zhu, 2001: East Asian winter monsoon and Arctic Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28(10), 2073–2076, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL012311.
Gong, H. N., L. Wang, W. Chen, X. L. Chen, and D. Nath, 2017: Biases of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation in CMIP5 models. Environmental Research Letters, 12(1), 014001, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/12/1/014001.
Gong, H. N., L. Wang, W. Chen, R. G. Wu, K. Wei, and X. F. Cui, 2014: The climatology and interannual variability of the East Asian winter monsoon in CMIP5 models. J. Climate, 27(4), 1659–1678, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00039.1.
Gong, H. N., L. Wang, W. Chen, D. Nath, G. Huang, and W. C. Tao, 2015: Diverse influences of ENSO on the East Asian-Western Pacific winter climate tied to different ENSO properties in CMIP5 models. J. Climate, 28(6), 2187–2202, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00405.1.
Gong, H. N., L. Wang, W. Zhou, W. Chen, R. G. Wu, L. Liu, D. Nath, and M. Y.-T. Leung, 2018: Revisiting the northern mode of East Asian winter monsoon variation and its response to global warming. J. Climate, 31(21), 9001–9014, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0136.1.
Ham, S., and Y. Jeong, 2021: Characteristics of subseasonal winter prediction skill assessment of GloSea5 for East Asia. Atmosphere, 12(10), 1311, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12101311.
He, S. P., and H. J. Wang, 2013a: Impact of the November/December Arctic Oscillation on the following January temperature in East Asia. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 118(23), 12 981–12 998, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020525.
He, S. P., and H. J. Wang, 2013b: Oscillating relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon and ENSO. J. Climate, 26(24), 9819–9838, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00174.1.
Hersbach, H., and Coauthors, 2020: The ERA5 global reanalysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146(730), 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803.
Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane, 2009: Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36(8), L08707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL037079.
Huang, B. H., Z.-Z. Hu, and B. Jha, 2007: Evolution of model systematic errors in the Tropical Atlantic Basin from coupled climate hindcasts. Climate Dyn., 28(7–8), 661–682, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0223-8.
Jhun, J.-G., and E.-J. Lee, 2004: A new East Asian winter monsoon index and associated characteristics of the winter monsoon. J. Climate, 17(4), 711–726, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0711:ANEAWM>2.0.CO;2.
Jiang, D. B., D. Hu, Z. P. Tian, and X. M. Lang, 2020: Differences between CMIP6 and CMIP5 models in simulating climate over China and the East Asian monsoon. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 37(10), 1102–1118, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-020-2034-y.
Jiang, W. P., H. N. Gong, P. Huang, L. Wang, G. Huang, and L. S. Hu, 2022: Biases and improvements of the ENSO-East Asian winter monsoon teleconnection in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. Climate Dyn., 59, 2467–2480, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06220-5.
Jiang, X. W., S. Yang, Y. Q. Li, A. Kumar, W. Q. Wang, and Z. T. Gao, 2013: Dynamical prediction of the East Asian winter monsoon by the NCEP Climate Forecast System. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 118(3), 1312–1328, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50193.
Kang, D., and M.-I. Lee, 2019: ENSO influence on the dynamical seasonal prediction of the East Asian winter monsoon. Climate Dyn., 53(12), 7479–7495, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3574-4.
Kang, L. H., W. Chen, and K. Wei, 2006: The interdecadal variation of winter temperature in China and its relation to the anomalies in atmospheric general circulation. Climatic and Environmental Research, 11(3), 330–339, https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1006-9585.2006.03.009. (in Chinese with English abstract)
Kang, L. H., W. Chen, L. Wang, and L. J. Chen, 2009: Interannual variations of winter temperature in China and their relationship with the atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature. Climatic and Environmental Research, 14(1), 45–53, https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2009.01.05. (in Chinese with English abstract)
Kerr, R. A., 2000: A North Atlantic climate pacemaker for the centuries. Science, 288(5473), 1984–1985, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.288.5473.1984.
Kim, H.-M., P. J. Webster, and J. A. Curry, 2012: Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere Winter. Climate Dyn., 39(12), 2957–2973, https://doi.org/10.1007/S00382-012-1364-6.
Kim, J.-W., S.-I. An, S.-Y. Jun, H.-J. Park, and S.-W. Yeh, 2017: ENSO and East Asian winter monsoon relationship modulation associated with the anomalous northwest Pacific anticyclone. Climate Dyn., 49(4), 1157–1179, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3371-5.
Li, C. Y., 1990: Interaction between anomalous winter monsoon in East Asia and El Niño events. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 7(1), 36–46, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02919166.
Li, F., and H. J. Wang, 2012: Predictability of the East Asian winter monsoon interannual variability as indicated by the DEMETER CGCMS. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 29(3), 441–454, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-011-1115-3.
Li, J., B. Wang, and Y.-M. Yang, 2020: Diagnostic metrics for evaluating model simulations of the East Asian monsoon. J. Climate, 33(5), 1777–1801, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0808.1.
Li, Y. Q., and S. Yang, 2010: A dynamical index for the East Asian winter monsoon. J. Climate, 23(15), 4255–4262, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3375.1.
Ma, T. J., and W. Chen, 2021: Climate variability of the East Asian winter monsoon and associated extratropical-tropical interaction: A review. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1504(1), 44–62, https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14620.
MacLachlan, C., and Coauthors, 2015: Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5): A high-resolution seasonal forecast system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141(689), 1072–1084, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2396.
Mantua, N. J., S. R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J. M. Wallace, and R. C. Francis, 1997: A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78(6), 1069–1079, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2.
Martin, G. M., R. C. Levine, J. M. Rodriguez, and M. Vellinga, 2021: Understanding the development of systematic errors in the Asian summer monsoon. Geoscientific Model Development, 14(2), 1007–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1007-2021.
Megann, A., and Coauthors, 2014: GO5.0: The joint NERC-Met Office NEMO global ocean model for use in coupled and forced applications. Geoscientific Model Development, 7(3), 1069–1092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1069-2014.
Mori, M., M. Watanabe, H. Shiogama, J. Inoue, and M. Kimoto, 2014: Robust Arctic sea-ice influence on the frequent Eurasian cold winters in past decades. Nature Geoscience, 7(12), 869–873, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2277.
Park, T.-W., C.-H. Ho, and S. Yang, 2011: Relationship between the Arctic Oscillation and cold surges over East Asia. J. Climate, 24(1), 68–83, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3529.1.
Qiao, S. B., M. Zou, H. N. Cheung, W. Zhou, Q. X. Li, G. L. Feng, and W. J. Dong, 2020: Predictability of the wintertime 500 hPa geopotential height over Ural-Siberia in the NCEP climate forecast system. Climate Dyn., 54(3–4), 1591–1606, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05074-8.
Qiao, S. B., M. Zou, H. N. Cheung, J. Y. Liu, J. Q. Zuo, Q. X. Li, G. L. Feng, and W. J. Dong, 2021: Contrasting interannual prediction between January and February temperature in southern China in the NCEP Climate Forecast System. J. Climate, 34(7), 2791–2812, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0568.1.
Rae, J. G. L., H. T. Hewitt, A. B. Keen, J. K. Ridley, A. E. West, C. M. Harris, E. C. Hunke, and D. N. Walters, 2015: Development of Global Sea Ice 6.0 CICE configuration for the Met Office global coupled model. Geoscientific Model Development, 8(7), 2529–2554, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-8-2529-2015.
Reynolds, R. W., T. M. Smith, C. Y. Liu, D. B. Chelton, K. S. Casey, and M. G. Schlax, 2007: Daily high-resolution-blended analyses for sea surface temperature. J. Climate, 20(22), 5473–5496, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1824.1.
Scaife, A. A., and Coauthors, 2014: Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41(7), 2514–2519, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059637.
Sohn, S.-J., C.-Y. Tam, and C.-K. Park, 2011: Leading modes of East Asian winter climate variability and their predictability: An assessment of the APCC multi-model ensemble. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 89(5), 455–474, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2011-504.
Sun, C. H., S. Yang, W. J. Li, R. N. Zhang, and R. G. Wu, 2016: Interannual variations of the dominant modes of East Asian winter monsoon and possible links to Arctic sea ice. Climate Dyn., 47(1), 481–496, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2851-3.
Thompson, D. W. J., and J. M. Wallace, 1998: The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25(9), 1297–1300, https://doi.org/10.1029/98GL00950.
Trenberth, K. E., 1997: The definition of El Niño. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78(12), 2771–2778, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2771:TDOENO>2.0.CO;2.
Valcke, S., 2013: The OASIS3 coupler: A European climate modelling community software. Geoscientific Model Development, 6(2), 373–388, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-373-2013.
Wallace, J. M., and D. S. Gutzler, 1981: Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the northern hemisphere winter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109(4), 784–812, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<0784:TITGHF>2.0.CO;2.
Walters, D., and Coauthors, 2017: The Met Office unified model global atmosphere 6.0/6.1 and JULES global land 6.0/6.1 configurations. Geoscientific Model Development, 10(4), 1487–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1487-2017.
Wang, B., R. G. Wu, and X. Fu, 2000: Pacific-East Asia teleconnection: How does ENSO affect East Asian climate? J. Climate, 13(9), 1517–1536, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1517:PEATHD>2.0.CO;2.
Wang, B., Z. W. Zhu, C.-P. Chang, J. Liu, J. P. Li, and T. J. Zhou, 2010: Another look at interannual-to-interdecadal variations of the East Asian winter monsoon: The northern and southern temperature modes. J. Climate, 23(6), 1495–1512, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3243.1.
Wang, L., and W. Chen, 2010: How well do existing indices measure the strength of the East Asian winter monsoon? Adv. Atmos. Sci., 27(4), 855–870, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-009-9094-3.
Wang, L., and W. Chen, 2014: An intensity index for the East Asian winter monsoon. J. Climate, 27(6), 2361–2374, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00086.1.
Wang, L., and M.-M., Lu, 2017: The East Asian winter monsoon. The Global Monsoon System: Research and Forecast. 3rd ed., C.-P. Chang et al., Eds., World Scientific, 51–61.
Wang, L., W. Chen, and R. H. Huang, 2008: Interdecadal modulation of PDO on the impact of ENSO on the East Asian winter monsoon. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35(20), L20702, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035287.
Watanabe, M., and T. Nitta, 1999: Decadal changes in the atmospheric circulation and associated surface climate variations in the northern hemisphere winter. J. Climate, 12(2), 494–510, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<0494:DCITAC>2.0.CO;2.
Wei, K., T. Xu, Z. C. Du, H. N. Gong, and B. H. Xie, 2014: How well do the current state-of-the-art CMIP5 models characterise the climatology of the East Asian winter monsoon? Climate Dyn., 43(5–6), 1241–1255, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1929-z.
Wu, B. Y., and J. Wang, 2002: Winter Arctic Oscillation, Siberian High and East Asian winter monsoon. Geophys. Res. Lett., 99(19), 1897, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL015373.
Wu, B. Y., J. Z. Su, and R. H. Zhang, 2011: Effects of autumn-winter Arctic sea ice on winter Siberian High. Chinese Science Bulletin, 56(30), 3220–3228, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-011-4696-4.
Zhang, D. Q., G. M. Martin, J. M. Rodriguez, Z. J. Ke, and L. J. Chen, 2020a: Predictability of the western North Pacific subtropical high associated with different ENSO phases in GloSea5. J. Meteorol. Res., 34(5), 926–940, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-020-0055-1.
Zhang, P., Z. W. Wu, and J. P. Li, 2019: Reexamining the relationship of La Niña and the East Asian Winter Monsoon. Climate Dyn., 53(1), 779–791, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04613-7.
Zhang, P., Z. W. Wu, J. P. Li, and Z. N. Xiao, 2020b: Seasonal prediction of the northern and southern temperature modes of the East Asian winter monsoon: tThe importance of the Arctic sea ice. Clim.ate Dyn., 54(D147), 3583–3597, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05182-w.
Zhang, R. H., A. Sumi, and M. Kimoto, 1996: Impact of El Niño on the East Asian Monsoon: A diagnostic study of the’ 86/87 and’ 91/92 events. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 74(1), 49–62, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.74.1y49.
Zhou, W., X. Wang, T. J. Zhou, C. Li, and J. C. L. Chan, 2007: Interdecadal variability of the relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon and ENSO. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 98(3–4), 283–293, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-007-0263-6.
Zhu, Y. F., 2008: An index of East Asian winter monsoon applied to description the Chinese mainland winter temperature changes. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 63(5), 781–788, https://doi.org/10.11676/qxxb2008.071. (in Chinese with English abstract)
Zou, M., and Coauthors, 2022: Predictability of the two temperature modes of the East Asian winter monsoon in the NCEP-CFSv2 and MRI-CPSv2 models. Climate Dyn., 59(11–12), 3211–3225, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06254-9.
Acknowledgements
This research was jointly supported by the State Key Program of the National Natural Science of China (Grant No. 41730964), the National Key Research and Development Program on Monitoring, Early Warning and Prevention of Major Natural Disaster (2018YFC1506000), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41975091 and 42175047), National Basic Research Program of China (2015CB453203), and UK-China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Article Highlights
• GloSea5 reproduces the climatology and interannual variability of EAWM index well with a two-month forecast lead time.
• Both the northern and southern modes of SAT in the EAWM region was captured well by GloSea5, despite the evolvement of systematic model bias.
• GloSea5 realistically simulates the WNPAC associated with ENSO, while the prediction skill for mid-high-latitude Eurasia is relatively low.
※ This paper is a contribution to the 2nd Special Issue on Climate Science for Service Partnership China.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Zhang, D., Chen, L., Martin, G.M. et al. Seasonal Prediction Skill and Biases in GloSea5 Relating to the East Asia Winter Monsoon. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 40, 2013–2028 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-2258-8
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-2258-8
Key words
- East Asia winter monsoon (EAWM)
- Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5 (GloSea5)
- El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
- prediction skill
- model bias