Abstract
Terrestrial ecosystems are an important part of Earth systems, and they are undergoing remarkable changes in response to global warming. This study investigates the response of the terrestrial vegetation distribution and carbon fluxes to global warming by using the new dynamic global vegetation model in the second version of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Earth System Model (CAS-ESM2). We conducted two sets of simulations, a present-day simulation and a future simulation, which were forced by the present-day climate during 1981–2000 and the future climate during 2081–2100, respectively, as derived from RCP8.5 outputs in CMIP5. CO2 concentration is kept constant in all simulations to isolate CO2-fertilization effects. The results show an overall increase in vegetation coverage in response to global warming, which is the net result of the greening in the mid-high latitudes and the browning in the tropics. The results also show an enhancement in carbon fluxes in response to global warming, including gross primary productivity, net primary productivity, and autotrophic respiration. We found that the changes in vegetation coverage were significantly correlated with changes in surface air temperature, reflecting the dominant role of temperature, while the changes in carbon fluxes were caused by the combined effects of leaf area index, temperature, and precipitation. This study applies the CAS-ESM2 to investigate the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate warming. Even though the interpretation of the results is limited by isolating CO2-fertilization effects, this application is still beneficial for adding to our understanding of vegetation processes and to further improve upon model parameterizations.
摘要
陆地生态系统是地球系统的重要组成部分,由于全球变暖,陆地生态系统正经历着显著的变化。本文利用中国科学院地球系统模式第二版(CAS-ESM2)中的新版全球植被动力学模型,研究了陆地植被分布和碳通量对未来全球变暖的响应变化。本文做了两组试验:当代试验和未来试验。它们分别对应1981–2000年的当代气候和CMIP5 RCP8.5模拟的2081–2100年的未来气候。同时,为排除CO2施肥效应的影响,所有模拟试验中CO2浓度都设为恒定值。模拟结果表明,全球变暖将导致植被覆盖度总体增加,这是中高纬度地区植被增加和热带地区植被减少的综合结果;另外,碳通量(包括总初级生产力、净初级生产力和自养呼吸)也将随全球变暖有所增加。研究发现,植被覆盖度的变化与地表气温的变化存在显著的相关性,这表明温度对未来植被分布起主导作用,而碳通量的变化则是叶面积指数、温度和降水共同作用的结果。本文应用CAS-ESM2研究陆地生态系统对未来气候变暖的响应,尽管剔除CO2施肥效应会对研究结果产生一定的限制,但本文研究仍有利于更好地理解植被过程,并进一步改进模型的参数化
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Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41705070), the Major Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41991282) and the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project “Earth System Science Numerical Simulator Facility” (EarthLab).
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Article Highlights
• The projected vegetation coverage and carbon fluxes show an overall increase under global warming.
• Surface air temperature is the dominant driver of changes in vegetation distribution.
• Changes in carbon fluxes are caused by the combined effects of leaf area index, temperature, and precipitation.
This paper is a contribution to the special issue on Carbon Neutrality: Important Roles of Renewable Energies, Carbon Sinks, NETs, and non-CO2 GHGs
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Changes in Global Vegetation Distribution and Carbon Fluxes in Response to Global Warming: Simulated Results from IAP-DGVM in CAS-ESM2
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Gao, X., Zhu, J., Zeng, X. et al. Changes in Global Vegetation Distribution and Carbon Fluxes in Response to Global Warming: Simulated Results from IAP-DGVM in CAS-ESM2. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 39, 1285–1298 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1138-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1138-3