Abstract
Summer precipitation over the Yangtze River basin (YRB) in 2020 experienced a strong subseasonal and synoptic fluctuation in addition to contributing to an exceptionally large seasonal mean precipitation. The cause of this higher-frequency fluctuation is examined based on observational analyses. Apart from the continuous northward movement of the climatological mei-yu rainband, the mei-yu rainbelt in the summer of 2020 experienced multiple northward and southward swings. The cause of the swings was attributed to the subseasonal variability of southerly winds to the south and northeasterly winds to the north of the YRB. In addition, synoptic-scale variability, characterized by the eastward propagation of low-level cyclonic vorticity and precipitation anomalies, was also commonplace in the summer of 2020. While the strengthening of both the subseasonal and synoptic variabilities in the summer of 2020 was attributed to the increase of the background mean moisture, the synoptic variability was greatly affected by the subseasonal rainfall variability. As a result, both the synoptic-scale and subseasonal variabilities contributed to the north-south swings of the rainbelt. The large-scale modulations by both the seasonal mean and subseasonal anomalies provide insight regarding the optimization of issuing accurate, extended-range forecasts of extreme weather events.
摘要
2020 年长江流域夏季平均降水量异常偏多, 且表现出强烈的次季节和天气尺度波动特征. 通过分析观测资料, 本研究解释了降水产生高频波动的原因. 2020 年夏季除气候态梅雨带持续性北移外, 雨带还经历了多次的南北摆动, 摆动归因于长江流域以南 (北) 的偏南风 (偏北的东北风) 的次季节尺度变化. 此外, 天气尺度的低层气旋性涡度与降水异常协同一致向东传播. 随着背景场平均水汽增加, 天气尺度变率受次季节尺度降水变率的影响较大, 2020 年夏季次季节和天气尺度降水变率都有所增大. 因此, 天气和次季节尺度变化共同作用, 促使雨带产生南北摆动. 季节平均场和次季节尺度变率对天气系统的大尺度调制作用也为提高极端天气事件的延伸期预报水平提供了理论依据.
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Acknowledgements
This work was jointly supported by China National Key R&D Program 2018YFA0605604, NSFC grants (Grant No. 42088101, 41875069), NSF AGS-2006553, and NOAA NA18OAR4310298. This is SOEST contribution number 11413, IPRC contribution number 1541, and ESMC number 357.
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Article Highlights
• The mei-yu rainband in the summer of 2020 experienced a high-frequency fluctuation with multiple northward and southward movements.
• The north-south swings of the mei-yu rainbelt were caused by the subseasonal variability of anomalous southerly winds to the south and northeasterly winds to the north of the YRB.
• Both the synoptic and subseasonal variabilities were strengthened in the summer of 2020, compared with the long-term climatology.
• During the meridional swings of the rainbelt, the strength of the synoptic variability is greatly modulated by the subseasonal variability.
This paper is a contribution to the special issue on Summer 2020: Record Rainfall in Asia—Mechanisms, Predictability and Impacts.
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Ding, L., Li, T. & Sun, Y. Subseasonal and Synoptic Variabilities of Precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin in the Summer of 2020. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 38, 2108–2124 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1133-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1133-8
Key words
- Yangtze River precipitation
- synoptic and subseasonal variabilities
- meridional swings of a rainbelt
- large-scale modulation of high-frequency variability