Abstract
Large-ensemble simulations of the atmosphere-only time-slice experiments for the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) were carried out by the model group of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (FGOALS-f3-L). Eight groups of experiments forced by different combinations of the sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration (SIC) for pre-industrial, present-day, and future conditions were performed and published. The time-lag method was used to generate the 100 ensemble members, with each member integrating from 1 April 2000 to 30 June 2001 and the first two months as the spin-up period. The basic model responses of the surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation were documented. The results indicate that Arctic amplification is mainly caused by Arctic SIC forcing changes. The SAT responses to the Arctic SIC decrease alone show an obvious increase over high latitudes, which is similar to the results from the combined forcing of SST and SIC. However, the change in global precipitation is dominated by the changes in the global SST rather than SIC, partly because tropical precipitation is mainly driven by local SST changes. The uncertainty of the model responses was also investigated through the analysis of the large-ensemble members. The relative roles of SST and SIC, together with their combined influence on Arctic amplification, are also discussed. All of these model datasets will contribute to PAMIP multi-model analysis and improve the understanding of polar amplification.
摘要
北极放大效应是 20 世纪最显著的气候变化现象. 为理解北极放大效应对全球气候变化的响应及影响, 科学家们开展了 CMIP6 子计划北极放大效应比较计划 (PAMIP). 中国科学院大气物理研究所的气候系统模式 FGOALS-f3-L 参加了上述计划并完成和提交了 8 组大样本集合试验. 这些试验基于陆气耦合模式, 分别考虑了不同下垫面强迫的组合在工业革命前情景、 现代气候情景和未来气候变化情景下, 全球海温和海冰变化对大气环流及全球气候系统的影响. 所有的试验外强迫固定在 2000 年, 采用 100 个集合, 从 2000 年 4 月 1 日开始积分到 2001 年 6 月 30 日. 初步结果表明, 北极放大现象主要是由北极海冰减少而引起的, 对比北极海冰减少和全球海温升高对大气影响的两组试验结果, 北极地区近地面气温显著升高和海冰减少的分布有密切联系, 而全球海温升高导致了北半球整体升温, 且整体升温区域性差异不大. 另一方面, 从降水的响应上来说, 降水在热带地区变化最强, 这在全球海温升高的敏感性试验中表现的最为显著, 证明了全球变暖对热带降水增强的主导作用. 本文还进一步给出了模式模拟的不确定性分析, 以及全球海温、 海冰对北极放大效应协同影响的讨论. 以上数据和初步研究结果为人们进一步理解北极放大效应现象及其影响提供了新的科学数据和科学依据.
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Data Availability Statement
The datasets used in this study are available athttps://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/. The DOIs for each experiment_id are listed in Table 1. The variable names and output frequency are shown in Table 3. All the datasets have been interpolated to a 1° × 1° grid. The variables are the same for each experiment.
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Acknowledgements
The research presented in this paper was jointly funded by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA19070404) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42030602, 91837101 and 91937302).
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He, B., Zhang, X., Duan, A. et al. CAS FGOALS-f3-L Large-ensemble Simulations for the CMIP6 Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 38, 1028–1049 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-0343-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-0343-4