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Relationships between interannual and intraseasonal variations of the Asian-western Pacific summer monsoon hindcasted by BCC_CSM1.1(m)

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Abstract

Using hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, the relationships between interannual variability (IAV) and intraseasonal variability (ISV) of the Asian-western Pacific summer monsoon are diagnosed. Predictions show reasonable skill with respect to some basic characteristics of the ISV and IAV of the western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM) and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). However, the links between the seasonally averaged ISV (SAISV) and seasonal mean of ISM are overestimated by the model. This deficiency may be partially attributable to the overestimated frequency of long breaks and underestimated frequency of long active spells of ISV in normal ISM years, although the model is capable of capturing the impact of ISV on the seasonal mean by its shift in the probability of phases.

Furthermore, the interannual relationships of seasonal mean, SAISV, and seasonally averaged long-wave variability (SALWV; i.e., the part with periods longer than the intraseasonal scale) of the WNPSM and ISM with SST and low-level circulation are examined. The observed seasonal mean, SAISV, and SALWV show similar correlation patterns with SST and atmospheric circulation, but with different details. However, the model presents these correlation distributions with unrealistically small differences among different scales, and it somewhat overestimates the teleconnection between monsoon and tropical central-eastern Pacific SST for the ISM, but underestimates it for the WNPSM, the latter of which is partially related to the too-rapid decrease in the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation with forecast time in the model.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China

    Xiangwen Liu, Tongwen Wu, Qiaoping Li, Yanjie Cheng, Xiaoyun Liang, Yongjie Fang, Weihua Jie & Suping Nie

  2. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China

    Song Yang

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  1. Xiangwen Liu
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  2. Tongwen Wu
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Correspondence to Xiangwen Liu.

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Liu, X., Wu, T., Yang, S. et al. Relationships between interannual and intraseasonal variations of the Asian-western Pacific summer monsoon hindcasted by BCC_CSM1.1(m). Adv. Atmos. Sci. 31, 1051–1064 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-014-3192-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-014-3192-6

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