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Identifying sensitive areas of adaptive observations for prediction of the Kuroshio large meander using a shallow-water model

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Abstract

Sensitive areas for prediction of the Kuroshio large meander using a 1.5-layer, shallow-water ocean model were investigated using the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) and first singular vector (FSV) methods. A series of sensitivity experiments were designed to test the sensitivity of sensitive areas within the numerical model. The following results were obtained: (1) the eff ect of initial CNOP and FSV patterns in their sensitive areas is greater than that of the same patterns in randomly selected areas, with the eff ect of the initial CNOP patterns in CNOP sensitive areas being the greatest; (2) both CNOP- and FSV-type initial errors grow more quickly than random errors; (3) the eff ect of random errors superimposed on the sensitive areas is greater than that of random errors introduced into randomly selected areas, and initial errors in the CNOP sensitive areas have greater eff ects on final forecasts. These results reveal that the sensitive areas determined using the CNOP are more sensitive than those of FSV and other randomly selected areas. In addition, ideal hindcasting experiments were conducted to examine the validity of the sensitive areas. The results indicate that reduction (or elimination) of CNOP-type errors in CNOP sensitive areas at the initial time has a greater forecast benefit than the reduction (or elimination) of FSV-type errors in FSV sensitive areas. These results suggest that the CNOP method is suitable for determining sensitive areas in the prediction of the Kuroshio large-meander path.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, 266071, China

    Guang’an Zou  (邹广安), Qiang Wang  (王强) & Mu Mu  (穆穆)

  2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Guang’an Zou  (邹广安)

  3. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Henan University, Kaifeng, 475004, China

    Guang’an Zou  (邹广安)

Authors
  1. Guang’an Zou  (邹广安)
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  2. Qiang Wang  (王强)
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  3. Mu Mu  (穆穆)
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Correspondence to Qiang Wang  (王强).

Additional information

Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 41230420, 41306023), the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. XDA11010303), and the NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers (No. U1406401)

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Zou, G., Wang, Q. & Mu, M. Identifying sensitive areas of adaptive observations for prediction of the Kuroshio large meander using a shallow-water model. Chin. J. Ocean. Limnol. 34, 1122–1133 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00343-016-4264-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00343-016-4264-5

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