Abstract
Racial/ethnic aspects of urban neighborhoods have been a major concern of social scientists post-World War II. As we move into the twenty-first century, however, the object of study is changing dramatically in that the majority US population will soon be minorities; this is already the case in many locales, and other countries are experiencing similar shifts. To recount this dynamic and provide context, the paper begins by considering the US city pre-World War II, ethnic enclaves, and their transition to the present day—giving rise to an immigrant ethos that remains prevalent. Attention then turns to general frameworks related to the immigrant experience, and their future applicability. Considered next is the current state of majoritizing the minority. As one outcome, urban neighborhoods will become demographically diverse and reflect socioeconomic differences rather than racial/ethnic ones; that is, in the jargon of past research, neighborhood composition will be determined by Class more than Culture. This should be largely driven by market forces as mediated by elements such as social networks (formal and informal) and personal preferences. Inertia effects also would operate to slow, but not eliminate, shifts in the urban landscape. Conceptually, these forces are represented by Market-Led Pluralism and Resurgent Ethnicity. Regarding other likely futures, as acculturation occurs a substantial increase in intermarriage is expected, leading to A Blended America. Economic shifts also play into the future as nations of the Global South strengthen, while production in the Global North becomes more automated. Hence, immigration will continue, but from different origins; and the overall level will be lower, leading to A Shrinking Nation.
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Notes
Much of this discourse also applies to Europe, but not entirely. Relevant in this regard is Crul and Mollenkopf (2012) who consider the children of immigrants, noting that “the old majority group [in both settings] will simply have to adapt to its new minority position” (p. 6). But there also are “deep seated differences in how [each region] view[s] immigration” (p. 8) as signified by “the [US] term ‘ assimilation’ [which] implies that immigrants or their offspring can become similar to members of the majority society,” whereas “[i]n Europe, ‘integration’ focuses explicitly on positions within the social structure” (pp. 8–9, italics added).
The meaning of “neighborhood” has been extensively debated, as reviewed by Spielman and Logan (2013: 68–69). Here, however, we simply consider it as a landscape of socioeconomic characteristics differentiated by pre-drawn enumeration districts such as Census Tracts (which were originally seen as representing neighborhood) and/or small municipalities within a larger urban agglomeration.
In Columbus Ohio, for example, Bexley is closely associated with Jews in that, as Sylvan et al. (2001: 5–6) report, it has the largest concentration of Jewish households, 14.3 %, and of Jewish people, 30.9 % (but down from 34.4 % in 1990). In terms of that municipality’s population, however, the Jewish segment is approximately 25–30 %.
This model continues to appear in current-day urban geography textbooks, indicating its ongoing significance.
A central role in Americanization was performed by Settlement Houses such as Hull House in Chicago, elements of a progressive movement of the late nineteenth/early twentieth centuries which sought to “socialize the poor into middle class standards of family life and educational achievement” (Knox and McCarthy 2005: 503–505).
Segmented assimilation is similar to the Heterolocal framework of Zelinsky (2001: ch 3). As noted by Zelinsky and Lee (1998: 293), the model “applies to recent populations of shared [racial/] ethnic identity that ... adopt a dispersed pattern of residential location, all the while maintaining strong social cohesion by various means despite the lack of propinquity.” Both the segmented assimilation and heterolocal community are enabled by innovations in transportation (e.g., freeways) and communications (e.g., the internet) that operate across a range of geographic scales. Hence, “the animation of an ethnic community at the turn of the twenty-first century no longer requires geographical clustering” (Wright and Ellis 2000: 205).
Interestingly, one might reason that persistence of the Black ghetto reflects the innate competition between these “other” Europeans and African Americans of the Great Migration, wherein the former were similar in appearance to those already here and, therefore, more suitable for Americanization and more readily accepted.
The distinction between these observational units is that, e.g., the Chicago MSA is its entire metropolitan statistical area, which contains the cities of Chicago, Waukegan, Kenosha, Gary, and many others.
The Dissimilarity Index ranges from 0 to 100. In this context, \(D=79\) would be regarded as high segregation, \(D=59\) is still high but nearing a moderate level.
This comparison is comprised of “50 Metro Areas with Largest Black Populations in 2010” (Logan and Stults 2011: Table 1).
Analysis was limited to Franklin, the MSA’s central county, in order to employ unique data from Community Research Partners (www.communityresearchpartners.org/datatools/). This consists of 264 CTs, compared to 379 for the entire MSA.
The range of diversity scores depends on the number of racial/ethnic groupings, six in the present case; scores directly with diversity itself.
A fixation on services for the poor, rather than the broad range needed, is common and, in this author’s opinion, short sighted. See for example Allard and Roth (2010).
The report adds (p. 8) that “Given current immigration trends and birth rates, virtually all (93 %) of the growth of the nation’s working-age population between now and 2050 will be accounted for by immigrants and their U.S.-born children.”
Relevant to this, under a sub-heading titled “Fading of a Taboo,” Pew research center reported that the acceptance of “Blacks and Whites Dating Each Other” rose from 48 % in 1987 to 83 % in 2009 (p. 35). Regarding “marrying-out,” in 1986 this was “completely unacceptable” to 28 % of a Roper sample whereas in 2009 “63 % said it would be fine ... if a family member married ‘out’ to any of the three other major racial and ethnic groups ... and 80 % say they would be fine with a new member of their family ... from ... one of the specified ‘out’ groups.” (pp. 35–36).
Kotkin (2010) presents a broader and more multifaceted view of America in 2050 under the premise of “Demographics as Destiny” (p. 4). Regarding the future described here, see his chapter on “Post-Ethnic America,” pp. 139–170.
Many smaller nations have equally impressive increases; e.g., Denmark 315 %, France 220 %, Japan 322 %, Netherlands 267 %, Sweden 247 %. Data is from the IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2013; GDP per Capita is expressed in terms of “current $US.”
Also of interest is the 2013 World Development Report (World Bank 2012) which has “Jobs” as its theme. Regarding the latter, Table 5 (pp. 360–361) shows country-specific Value Added Per Worker; for the Primary, Secondary, and Tertiary Sectors; and for 1995, 2005, and 2010. Over that time span, the US increased 38 % in secondary production and 27 % in tertiary.
Poignant here is Beaudry’s statement that “Once the robots are in place you still need some people, but you need a lot less than when you were putting in the robots” (Casselman 2013). More specifically, Schwartz (2013) offers several examples—viz, “Simply put, United Technologies does not need as many workers as it once did to churn out higher sales and profits;” “C.E.O.s. are saying, ‘I don’t really need to hire because of the productivity gains of the last few years,’ said [the] chairman of the accounting giant PricewatershouseCoopers;” “When companies do hire, it is often overseas ... Take 3M ... [its] work force ... has grown substantially ... But of those 11,348 positions added, only 608 were in the united states.” On the other hand, Koten (2013) speaking of an “American Industrial Revival” through technology describes Nike’s Flyknit shoe manufacturing. This “put[s] a shockingly heavy emphasis on human labor;” but new production techniques “takes a lot of the labor cost out of the equation;” such that “the reason for making shoes in low-wage countries begins to evaporate and the advantages of locating the machine closer to the customer [e.g., in the US] ... loom much larger.”
For further detail, see US Department of Homeland Security (vds) (2002).
Major points of entry and the nationality of entrants are provided at http://frontex.europa.eu/trends-and-routes/migratory-routes-map. These routes are identified as the Western African, Western Mediterranean, Central Mediterranean, Apulia and Calabria, Albania and Greece, Western Balkan, Eastern Mediterranean, and Eastern Borders routes. Further, “The single biggest entry route for migrants into the EU is via international airports: most of those who currently reside in the EU illegally, originally entered in possession of valid travel documents and a visa whose validity period they have since overstayed.”
Current law sets out five classes of Employment Based Immigration (http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/types/types_1323.html)—E1: Priority Workers; E2: Professionals Holding Advanced Degrees and Persons of Exceptional Ability; E3: Skilled Workers, Professionals, and Unskilled Workers (Other Workers); E4: Certain Special Immigrants; and E5: Immigrant Investors.
Among US immigrants today, Mexicans are the largest component, comprising 30 % of the total. China is the next largest, but comprises only 5 % (Passel et al. 2012: 6).
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Acknowledgments
This paper was prepared for an international workshop on The Future of the Urban World: Economic, Social and Spatial Transformation of Cities—organized by Luigi Fusco Girard, Karima Kourtit, and Peter Nijkamp as a part of their New Urban World series. Much appreciated assistance was provided by Kevin Cox, Ed Malecki, Morton O’Kelly, Ira Sheskin, and Mike Webb as well as persons attending the New Urban World sessions.
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Brown, L.A. Population composition, urban neighborhoods, and future scenarios: a crystal ball perspective, from past to future. Ann Reg Sci 56, 647–670 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-015-0722-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-015-0722-9