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An innovative adaptive Kriging-based parallel system reliability method under error stopping criterion for efficiently analyzing the global reliability sensitivity index

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Abstract

Global reliability sensitivity index measures the effect of uncertainty of model input on model failure probability, which is critical for simplifying analysis model and the reliability-based design optimization model. For efficiently estimating the global reliability sensitivity index of each model input, this paper transforms it into estimating an unconditional failure probability and a two failure modes-based parallel system failure probability from the perspective of single-loop estimation method. Furthermore, the relationship of computational accuracy among the global reliability sensitivity index, the unconditional failure probability, and the two failure modes-based system failure probability is constructed, on which the error stopping criterion-based sequentially adaptive Kriging model approach is developed to significantly decrease the number of calls to the actual limit state functions and the corresponding computational time under the sufficient accuracy. Results of three case studies covering explicit and implicit limit state functions demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Aeronautical Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 20220009053001), Young Talent Fund of Association for Science and Technology in Shaanxi of China (Grant No. 20230446), Natural Science Foundation of Chongqing (Grant No. CSTB2022NSCQ-MSX0861), Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation (Grant No. 2022A1515011515), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 12002237, 12302154).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Aeronautics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi’an, 710072, Shaanxi, China

    Wanying Yun, Shutong Zhang & Fengyuan Li

  2. National Key Laboratory of Strength and Structural Integrity, Aircraft Strength Research Institute of China, Xi’an, 710065, China

    Xiangming Chen & Zhe Wang

  3. Innovation Center NPU Chongqing, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Chongqing, 400000, China

    Wanying Yun

  4. Research & Development Institute of Northwestern Polytechnical University in Shenzhen, Shenzhen, 518057, Guangdong, China

    Wanying Yun

  5. Chinese Flight Test Establishment, Aircraft, Flight Test Technology Institute, Xi’an, 710089, Shaanxi, China

    Wanying Yun

  6. School of Aerospace Engineering and Applied Mechanics, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092, China

    Kaixuan Feng

Authors
  1. Wanying Yun
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  2. Shutong Zhang
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  3. Fengyuan Li
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  4. Xiangming Chen
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  5. Zhe Wang
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  6. Kaixuan Feng
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Contributions

WY: conceptualization, methodology, writing-original draft, funding acquisition. SZ: methodology, writing-review. FL: methodology, writing-review. XC: writing-review & editing, resources, software. ZW: methodology, formal analysis. KF: writing-review & editing.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Wanying Yun.

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We declare that we do not have any commercial or associative interest that represents a conflict of interest in connection with the work submitted.

Replication of results

The original codes of the case study I in Sect. 4.1 are available in the Supplementary materials.

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Responsible Editor: Chao Hu

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Yun, W., Zhang, S., Li, F. et al. An innovative adaptive Kriging-based parallel system reliability method under error stopping criterion for efficiently analyzing the global reliability sensitivity index. Struct Multidisc Optim 67, 51 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00158-024-03752-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00158-024-03752-8

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