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Probabilistic Seismic Hazard and Deaggregation Analysis of Guilan Region, South of Caspian Sea, Iran

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Abstract

This paper presents a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for Guilan Province, an influential, highly populated and strategic district to the south of the Caspian Sea in northern Iran. In this study, the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) over bedrock are estimated for the whole area of the province. NGA-West2 and the EMME project attenuation relationships are applied and combined using the logic tree method. Seismic hazard assessment is then carried out to establish the maps of seismic hazard distribution based on PGA values for two hazard levels as suggested by the Iranian seismic code of practice. Finally, deaggregation analysis is performed to determine the magnitude and distance pair that most prominently contributes to the seismic hazard for each district, which is of great importance for the region, as this has not been done before. Comparing the results with those suggested by the Iranian seismic code of practice and those obtained by previous studies, a general agreement seems to exist, although some violations are observed for some areas, especially in the southeastern part of the province, highlighting a need for revision of the Iranian seismic code of practice.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to acknowledge the support of the Caspian Sea Basin Research Center (CSBR) of University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran.

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  1. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran

    Ali Ghorbani & Amin Eslami

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  1. Ali Ghorbani
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Correspondence to Ali Ghorbani.

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Ghorbani, A., Eslami, A. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard and Deaggregation Analysis of Guilan Region, South of Caspian Sea, Iran. Pure Appl. Geophys. 178, 3793–3816 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-021-02873-1

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