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Numerical Prediction of Cold Season Fog Events over Complex Terrain: the Performance of the WRF Model During MATERHORN-Fog and Early Evaluation

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Abstract

A field campaign to study cold season fog in complex terrain was conducted as a component of the Mountain Terrain Atmospheric Modeling and Observations (MATERHORN) Program from 07 January to 01 February 2015 in Salt Lake City and Heber City, Utah, United States. To support the field campaign, an advanced research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to produce real-time forecasts and model evaluation. This paper summarizes the model performance and preliminary evaluation of the model against the observations. Results indicate that accurately forecasting fog is challenging for the WRF model, which produces large errors in the near-surface variables, such as relative humidity, temperature, and wind fields in the model forecasts. Specifically, compared with observations, the WRF model overpredicted fog events with extended duration in Salt Lake City because it produced higher moisture, lower wind speeds, and colder temperatures near the surface. In contrast, the WRF model missed all fog events in Heber City, as it reproduced lower moisture, higher wind speeds, and warmer temperatures against observations at the near-surface level. The inability of the model to produce proper levels of near-surface atmospheric conditions under fog conditions reflects uncertainties in model physical parameterizations, such as the surface layer, boundary layer, and microphysical schemes.

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Acknowledgments

This study is supported by The MATERHORN Program funded by the Office of Naval Research Award # N00014-11-1-0709. The computer support from University of Utah’s Center for High Performing Computer (CHPC) is greatly appreciated. Comments from Dr. Zaitao Pan and two anonymous reviewers are helpful for improving the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Utah, 135 S 1460 E, Rm. 819, Salt Lake City, UT, 84112, USA

    Zhaoxia Pu, Catherine N. Chachere & Sebastian W. Hoch

  2. Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA

    Eric Pardyjak

  3. Cloud Physics and Severe Weather Research Section, Environment Canada, Toronto, Canada

    Ismail Gultepe

Authors
  1. Zhaoxia Pu
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  2. Catherine N. Chachere
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  3. Sebastian W. Hoch
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  4. Eric Pardyjak
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  5. Ismail Gultepe
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Correspondence to Zhaoxia Pu.

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Contribute to a special issue on “Ice clouds and remote sensing” edited by Dr. Ismail Gultepe.

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Pu, Z., Chachere, C.N., Hoch, S.W. et al. Numerical Prediction of Cold Season Fog Events over Complex Terrain: the Performance of the WRF Model During MATERHORN-Fog and Early Evaluation. Pure Appl. Geophys. 173, 3165–3186 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-016-1375-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-016-1375-z

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