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Identifying Macroeconomic Shocks on House Sales: Evidence from China

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Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Business and Policy Studies (CONF-BPS 2023)

Part of the book series: Applied Economics and Policy Studies ((AEPS))

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Abstract

Contemporarily, housing price is affected by the macroeconomic shocks seriously. Numerous observers find that the effect for China’s housing price is even more significant. In this paper, we provide a framework based on the empirical evidences to the housing dynamics in China and demonstrates using regression analysis and time series analysis as well as real-world data from 2005 to 2022, explain reasons behind. Besides, this paper explores the macroeconomic factors which can explain the house sales dynamics in China using vector autoregression (VAR) model. According to the analysis, house sales in China is largely driven by its past performance. Inflation shock has a negative impact on house sales whereas money supply shock has a positive impact on house sales. Finally, the VAR model is discussed with selected variables to analyze the future housing price tendency in China and give the investors suggestions. These results shed light on guiding further exploration of housing prices in China.

F. Lei and L. Zhou—These authors contributed equally.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YW, Lancashire, UK

    Fan Lei

  2. University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, 2006, Australia

    Langfeng Zhou

Authors
  1. Fan Lei
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  2. Langfeng Zhou
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Langfeng Zhou .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. King's Business School, King's College London, London, UK

    Canh Thien Dang

  2. Department of Financial Economics and Accounting, University of Murcia, Murcia, Spain

    Javier Cifuentes-Faura

  3. Department of Postal Management, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing, China

    Xiaolong Li

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© 2023 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

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Lei, F., Zhou, L. (2023). Identifying Macroeconomic Shocks on House Sales: Evidence from China. In: Dang, C.T., Cifuentes-Faura, J., Li, X. (eds) Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Business and Policy Studies. CONF-BPS 2023. Applied Economics and Policy Studies. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-6441-3_158

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