Abstract
A science-based global consensus holds that decarbonization is imperative for intergenerational justice. International and national policy regimes are responding with commitments to net-zero in emissions. But many proposed pathways to decarbonization confront bottlenecks in supply capacities for the critical raw materials essential to realizing them. This chapter examines the best available evidence of serious gaps between escalating demand for critical raw materials versus feasible increases in their supply. Critical raw materials vary by jurisdiction and over time, but generally include cobalt, graphite, rare earths, and about two dozen other elements on the periodic table. Securing adequate supplies is complicated by inadequate investment capital, geopolitical competition, environmental risks, local opposition, and the long lead times required to develop new projects. Decarbonization pathways and technologies are nascent, so there are large knowledge gaps concerning the volume of materials needed to realize them and the governance regimes required to secure those materials equitably and sustainably. But it is clear that energy-transition scenarios have yet to confront the need for tradeoffs so as to maximize decarbonization at least cost in critical raw materials.
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Notes
- 1.
Of course, many institutions and individuals continue to reject the science underpinning climate change and greenhouse gas emissions. Those arguments are beyond the scope of this chapter.
- 2.
See the summary and sectoral data at World Data Lab (2022).
- 3.
Kharas et al. (2022) describe the increasing gap between GHG emissions and reductions required to meet the 2015 Paris Agreement target of at or below 1.5 °C.
- 4.
CRM are also often referred to as “critical minerals,” “critical and strategic minerals,” “technology metals,” and “battery minerals.”
- 5.
Intermittency refers to the fact that solar and wind assets only generate power when the sun shines or the wind blows. These intermittent renewables have low “capacity factors,” or actual power generation versus nameplate capacity. Intermittent renewables are therefore distinct from nuclear, hydro, and other generation assets that run at higher capacity factors, and thus afford far more electricity production per unit of CRM used in their construction.
- 6.
The most recent and comprehensive summary of critical mineral lists is Calvino (2022).
- 7.
For example, a 2021 study by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) determined that nuclear power requires 84 g of select CRM per megawatt-hour (MWh) of generated power, whereas solar technologies need between 296 and 635 g/MWh and wind power uses between 255 and 292 g/MWh. See UNECE (2021: 55).
- 8.
One example is seen in EC (2022).
- 9.
Concentrated solar power (CSP) is generally characterized by concentric rings of mirrors that direct sunlight onto a central tower containing a thermal sink. The absorption of heat from the focused sunlight is then used to power steam turbines to generate electricity. Unlike conventional solar photovoltaic panels, CSP is capable of 24-h operation, drawing on the stored heat in the central tower.
- 10.
A regularly updated summary analysis of bioenergy can be found in the various publications of the IEA Bioenergy Technology Collaboration Programme: https://www.ieabioenergy.com
- 11.
In this regard, see the results of a 30-country poll conducted by the internationally recognized polling firm Ipsos and released on December 9, 2022. The poll indicates that support for nuclear power increased 7% overall among the 30 countries, relative to 2021, and even higher in France (+10%), Germany (+15%), Spain (+13%), Italy (+17%), and the UK (+13%). The dramatic increases apparently reflect concerns over energy security and prices (Ipsos, 2022).
- 12.
As Isabella Ramdoo, Deputy Director of the Intergovernmental Forum on Minerals, Mining and Sustainable Development, points out: “forecasts mainly assume the energy transition demand will be driven by advanced and emerging economies, currently in the driver’s seat for the clean-energy technology revolution. However, a significant portion of future demand for minerals and metals will come from other sources: the Fourth Industrial Revolution, driven by digital technologies, and perhaps more importantly, developing countries’ demographic growth and organic industrial needs, is extraordinarily resource intensive. In any case, current forecasts are surely underestimated, as observed by the mounting pressure on the minerals market” (Ramdoo, 2022).
- 13.
Resources and reserves differ in the fact that the former is a general estimate of discovered and undiscovered deposits of a particular commodity, whereas reserves refer to known deposits that can be extracted economically.
- 14.
For example, the amount of uranium dissolved in seawater is about 1000 times that in terrestrial sites (see Altay et al., 2022).
- 15.
On this see Iannucci (2022).
- 16.
As of this writing, the Alliance comprises Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
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DeWit, A. (2023). Decarbonization and Critical Raw Materials. In: Adachi, Y., Usami, M. (eds) Governance for a Sustainable Future. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-4771-3_14
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